The first criminal trial against a former president in the history of the United States could see a verdict by the end of next week. Closing arguments for President’s Trump’s hush money trial will begin on Tuesday and probably last the entire day. Then, presumably, on Wednesday morning the judge will instruct the jury on the charges, after which the five women and seven men will go into deliberation. If the 12 jurors return with a guilty verdict, which must be unanimous on each count, what will happen to Mr. Trump? 

The 45th president is charged with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree. The Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, accuses Mr. Trump of disguising monthly payments he made to his former lawyer Michael Cohen as legal fees, when in reality they were, according to Mr. Bragg, reimbursements for a hush-money payment Cohen made to the porn star Stormy Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford.

The payment was made two weeks before the 2016 presidential election, the district attorney alleges, to cover up her allegation of a one-time sexual encounter she claims to have had with Mr. Trump at a celebrity golf tournament at Lake Tahoe in 2006. He denies the affair and has pleaded not guilty to all charges. 

Mr. Bragg elevated what would usually be a misdemeanor to a felony conviction. The charge, which New York Times called “a staple of his office’s white-collar work,” can only be raised from a misdemeanor to a felony if the defendant falsified his business records with the intention to commit or conceal another crime.

The prosecution has named several second crimes, the most serious offenses being that Mr. Trump conspired to influence the 2016 presidential election and violated federal campaign finance laws. Mr. Bragg has faced criticism from legal scholars prosecuting this federal offense in state court. 

“It seems a bit of a legal reach, and the question is why are they doing it?” said Jonathan Turley, a professor at the George Washington University Law School, as reported by the Associated Press. Last summer, Mr. Trump’s attorneys tried to move the case to federal court. But the federal judge, Alvin Hellerstein, denied their request, writing that the law did not provide exceptions for election-related activities.

As another second crime, the prosecutors allege that Mr. Trump helped Cohen commit tax fraud, and that he encouraged Cohen to distance himself from the hush-money payment.        

Under New York law, the class “E” felonies Mr. Trump faces are punishable by up to four years in prison per offense and-or a fine of up to $5,000. If Mr. Trump is found guilty on all 34 counts, meaning each falsified invoice, ledger entry and check, he could face up to $170,000 in fines and 136 years in prison. 

The Sun spoke to several legal experts and they all agree that it is unlikely for a first time offender to receive the maximum sentence or, for these kinds of offenses, any prison time at all. But this is an extraordinary trial and Mr. Trump is enormously unpopular in Manhattan, where he only got 12 percent of the vote in 2020. In January, a civil jury imposed an $83.3 million judgment on Mr. Trump for defaming the writer E. Jean Carroll, an extraordinary amount considering the slander involved. No experts to whom the Sun spoke about the hush-money case would speculate on what sentence the presiding trial judge, Juan Merchan, whom Mr. Trump has called “corrupt” and “conflicted,” might impose. Supervised parole could also be an option. 

The sentencing in criminal convictions usually comes between 30 and 60 days after the trial has ended. During that time, Mr. Trump would be able to attend his campaign rallies. He would not, however, be able to leave the country. His attorneys can appeal the guilty verdict only after he has been sentenced, because the verdict and the sentence are appealed together. And should this sentence include prison time, he can immediately ask to be released on bail pending appeal. In other words, he may not have to step into a prison cell, even if Judge Merchan rules that he must do so, until an appeals court upholds such a ruling. 

Criminal procedure in New York State requires that in a case where a defendant has been released on bail pending appeal, the arguments for the appeal should be heard within 120 days. Extensions, however, can be granted upon request. 

In the case that Mr. Trump is sentenced, say in July or in August, he could be before the appeals court in November. A felony conviction does not impact his ability to run for president in the general election, but it would prohibit him from voting this year in his adopted home state of Florida, which restored voting rights to convicted felons in 2018, with the exception of murder or a sexual offense (unless restored by the State Clemency Board), but only once they have completed their sentences, including parole and probation.

The only two states in the country where convicted felons retain their full voting rights are Vermont and Maine. In New York, where Mr. Trump was born and raised, convicted felons can vote if they are on parole, on probation, were not sentenced to prison or had their prison sentence suspended, served their maximum prison sentence, or were pardoned. 

Since Mr. Trump faces state charges, the only person who could pardon him is the state’s governor, in this case Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, who on Thursday, referred to Mr. Trump’s supporters as “clowns.” If Mr. Trump is elected president in November, he could not pardon himself for a state crime. Nor could President Biden.       

The American Bar Association writes, “There is a strong consensus among legal experts that a president cannot pardon someone for a state offense, as the Constitution notes ‘he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States.'” 

Since Mr. Trump also faces charges in federal courts, one may wonder, could he pardon himself there? The American Bar Association calls this an “unsettled legal question,” with varying “expert legal opinions” and a U.S. Supreme Court that “has not weighed in on this issue.” It is widely assumed, however, that since Mr. Trump would oversee the Justice Department as president, Special Counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution of him would end on January 20th should his quarry regain the presidency.

But before the alarm bells of a guilty verdict in Manhattan ring through the nation, the attorneys of both sides will hold their closing arguments in Manhattan criminal court on Tuesday after Memorial Day Weekend. 

On Friday, Mr. Trump called the case a “bookkeeping error” on his social media platform Truth Social, writing that the “Disgraceful District Attorney and his Thugs” and the “Highly Conflicted Judge, Juan Merchan, and the Crooked Joe Biden Administration, who are leading the Trial for ELECTION INTERFERENCE” are “referring to the fact that a bookkeeper, with zero influence from or discussion with me, correctly called the payment of a Legal Expense to a lawyer – a Legal Expense.” He added, “In other words, I am being prosecuted because a bookkeeper, who I had no contact with, marked down, from a dropdown menu in the ledger, a Legal Expense to a lawyer as ‘Legal Expense.’ What the hell is wrong with that? And, what else would you call it?….” 

When Mr. Bragg announced the indictment last year, he said, “At its core, this case today is one with allegations like so many of our white collar cases. Someone lied again and again to protect their interests and evade the laws to which we are all held accountable.”