As the battle week opened in eastern Ukraine, it was looking more likely that Russia was heading toward a provisional and decidedly Pyrrhic victory at Bakhmut, potentially marking a new phase in the war despite statements by some Western officials to the contrary.

Regardless, Russia’s troop losses are so high that they will inevitably undercut its ability to shore up positions elsewhere along the main front lines of the Donbas. 

The question is not so much whether Bakhmut will fall to the Russians but rather, from an overall strategic point of view, how much that would really matter to Ukraine. On Monday it appeared that President Zelensky had dispatched new troops to the battered city but it was not clear if the purpose of their mission was to reinforce the contingents already entrenched there or to ensure an orderly tactical retreat while minimizing losses.

Ukrainian officials have reaffirmed their intention to fight off the Russian onslaught as long as necessary and Russia is reportedly losing hundreds of men a day. The head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, appears to be going berserk, one day warning Mr. Zelensky to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut to avoid being trapped and the next carping to his boss, Vladimir Putin, that he doesn’t have enough ammunition for his units, risking a complete Russian “collapse.”

Ukraine is also suffering significant losses, both in and around Bakhmut. On the outskirts of the hilltop village of Chasiv Yar, through which the last supply route to shore up Bakhmut’s resistance passes, a Ukrainian officer told an Italian reporter that 200 of the 300 men deployed there since early January had been killed, wounded, or gone missing. 

Things aren’t much better at Kostiantynivka, a town that is west of Bakhmut and south of Kramatorsk, where in April a Russian missile strike killed dozens of civilians. According to a report in the Kyiv Independent, morale among infantrymen positioned at Kostiantynivka is low, with many claiming they were sent to fight with inadequate training, insufficient support from armored and artillery units, and not enough ammunition. There are also multiple instances of friendly fire, after which several hours are often lost before the necessary firing line adjustments can be made. 

Against this stark backdrop, it is even more disquieting to learn of one soldier’s claim that the survival rate for those sent to the front is less than 30 percent. Another soldier cited in the report spoke of limits to Ukrainian officials’ line that Russian soldiers are just “cannon fodder,” because in fact many are learning from their mistakes and becoming better fighters as a result. 

Conflicting messages persist. Mr. Zelensky reportedly led a meeting with military officials on Monday during which they pushed for bolstering Ukrainian positions at Bakhmut, but it was not clear how they could go about doing that under constant Russian artillery fire and encirclement from three sides.

Non-combatants are at risk of getting caught in the crossfire. The Donetsk regional governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko, told reporters: “Civilians are fleeing the region to escape Russian shelling continuing round the clock as additional Russian troops and weapons are being deployed there.”

Ukrainian units have destroyed two key bridges outside Bakhmut, including one linking it to Chasiv Yar. It is believed that demolishing the bridges could be part of efforts to impede a Russian advance if Ukrainian forces start pulling back from the city.

According to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War, “Ukrainian forces are unlikely to withdraw from Bakhmut all at once and may pursue a gradual fighting withdrawal to exhaust Russian forces through continued urban warfare.”

During a visit to Jordan on Monday, Secretary Austin said Bakhmut has “more of a symbolic value than … strategic and operational value.” He added that Ukraine is “building combat power” elsewhere. It is doing so with Western military support ahead of the launch of a possible spring offensive, he added. 

The AP reported that Russian forces now control about half of Donetsk province, and they must go through Bakhmut to take its remaining half. It is the only approach to bigger Ukrainian-held cities since Ukrainian troops took back Izium, in Kharkiv province, during a September counteroffensive.

By the time spring comes, Bakhmut may have become just a blip in the Russo-Ukrainian War — but possibly a bloody one that leaves Vladimir Putin licking more wounds than he might have bargained for.