Women and Democrats are dominating voter registration in states where abortion rights are on the line this November, a pattern familiar to those that watched registration in Kansas in the weeks before that state’s abortion right’s vote.

A Democratic political data and data services firm, Target Smart, reports that women are outpacing men in new voter registration in Wisconsin and Michigan, two states where abortion rights will be on the ballot in November.

Wisconsin will be voting on whether or not to repeal an 1849 law that bans abortions in the state. The law went into effect following the overturn of Roe v. Wade, in spite of the governor’s efforts to repeal the law, which were stymied by the Republican-controlled state legislature.

On August 17, a Marquette University Law School poll reported that 55 percent of voters there are “very concerned” about abortion rights.

In Michigan, the Right to Reproductive Freedom Initiative may appear on ballots in November, which would provide a state constitutional right to an abortion if passed.

As the Sun has reported, the Republican gubernatorial candidate in Wisconsin, Tudor Dixon, has also brought abortion further into the spotlight with her support for a no exceptions ban on abortion.

In Wisconsin, Target Smart reports that, based on voter registration data there, 52.6 percent of newly registered voters are Democrats. For Comparison, only 16.59 percent of new registrants registered as Republicans there.

Though no such partisan data is available from Michigan, the firm reports that women are out-registering men by 8.1 points there, a pattern similar to the run-up to Kansas’s abortion rights vote.

On August 2, voters in Kansas rejected an amendment that would have allowed state lawmakers to ban abortion there. Nearly 60 percent of voters supported maintaining a constitutional right to an abortion, and 41 percent voted to eliminate the right.

The outcome came as a surprise, in part because polls ahead of the vote suggested a tight margin slightly in favor of eliminating the right. President Trump carried 56.19 percent of the vote there in 2020. President Biden carried only 41.53 percent.

A look at voter registration patterns shows that, following the leak of the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, women began to outpace men in voter registration in Kansas. This drastically accelerated after the final ruling was handed down.

Target Smart reports that, in the days before the Kansas abortion rights vote, over 65 percent of new voters registering in Kansas were women.

To put these numbers in context, Kansas registered 28,452 new voters between June of 2022 and August of 2022. This is a relatively small portion of the total electorate of 1,951,099 registered voters there — about one-and-a-half percent.

While one percent of the vote probably wouldn’t change any election results in Kansas, a swing that small could certainly change the outcome in battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

In 2020, Wisconsin voted for Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump by less than one point — 49.54 percent to 48.82 percent. Michigan was slightly less tight, with Mr. Biden carrying 50.62 percent of the vote and Mr. Trump carrying 47.84 percent.

If Kansas is any indication and these voter registration trends continue, it could mean an edge for the Democrats come November.