With Jordanians voting for a new parliament Tuesday, the Hashemite kingdom’s delicate ties with America and Israel are expected to become even more fraught. 

King Abdullah II is walking a tightrope: While he needs to appease angry constituents who are seething over the worsening economy and the Gaza war, he also must maintain vital relations with Israel. With Iran seeking to add Jordan to its “ring of fire” strategy targeting Israel, the Islamic Republic’s interference in local Jordanian politics is further undermining the king’s grip on power. 

Amman’s streets erupted in celebration on Sunday night, complete with fireworks and the traditional distribution of sweets to passersby, after a Jordanian truck driver opened fire at the Allenby Bridge that separates the kingdom from Israel. Three Israelis were murdered before Israeli border security officers shot and killed the assailant.

The glee with which the terrorist attack was greeted is emblematic of the kingdom’s growing enmity to Israel. More than two-thirds of Jordan’s citizens are of Palestinian descent, including the king’s wife, Queen Rania, whose anti-Israel diatribes, which are increasing, often serve as the palace’s way to show solidarity with the street. 

Yet, Jordan depends on Israel for vital necessities. Israel has supplied most of the monarchy’s water needs since the 1994 peace accord between the countries. Trade is also significant: After shutting down all border crossings in the aftermath of the Sunday attack, Israel reopened them quickly to allow in trucks.

Less overtly, Israel — with American backing — is aiding King Abdullah in fending off threats from Tehran-backed Islamists, who are increasingly active in Jordan. Iran is using the Jordanian border to smuggle “arms, explosives, and cash to Judea and Samaria,” a veteran Israeli military analyst, Ehud Yaari, writes on the N-12 news site.

The Islamic Republic is cultivating several terrorist groups at Jenin and other cities in Judea and Samaria, hoping for an eastern anti-Israel front to add to its terrorist proxies: Hamas, the Houthis, and Syrian and Iraqi militias. In separate incidents Sunday and Monday, Israeli security forces arrested Palestinians who infiltrated Israel from the West Bank, suspecting they were planning major terror attacks.   

The Iranians, Mr. Yaari writes, are also active in Jordan, where they set up “sleeper cells, arm them with advanced weapons, and recruit young Jordanians. More than 46 percent of the young people of Jordan are unemployed. The Jordanian intelligence services are able to infiltrate and dismantle some of those cells, but many remain.“ 

Politically, the Islamic Republic is backing the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Islamic Action Front, Jordan’s largest opposition party, which is hoping to gain new seats in Tuesday’s election. The IAF, as well as several smaller leftist and Islamist parties, are demanding Jordan’s peace treaty with Israel be severed and economic and security ties with the Jewish state and America be cut off.  

“Today, what is happening in Gaza is an existentialist battle, and neither the Jordanian or Islamic movement can be bystanders,” the IAF secretary general, Murad Al-Adaileh, told Reuters Monday. “The voice of the Jordanian street was heard and influential,” he said, calling to increase his party’s share in the 138-seat parliament on Tuesday. 

The Jordanian parliament has little authority in a monarchy where the palace makes most decisions. The king has the power to fire parliamentarians, and he often reshuffles his cabinet. Yet, he must take account of the decline in the country’s services, the high unemployment, and the growing inflation, all of which are fomenting unrest.

Iran is exploiting the dissatisfaction, aiming to undermine the monarchy and weaken its ties with America and Israel. Historically, the Hashemites have been more consistently pro-Western than most of their fellow Arab leaders. Yet, King Abdullah often heeds the growing street sentiments that have been boiling hot since Hamas launched the October 7 war. 

Back in 1997,  King Hussain, the current monarch’s father, traveled to Israel to convey his condolences after a Jordanian soldier gunned down seven Israeli schoolgirls. Since Sunday, in contrast, King Abdullah has refrained from commenting on the terrorist shooting at Allenby Bridge. Instead, his firebrand foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, is urging a global boycott of Israel.

“Supporting this Israeli government is not supporting Israel,” Mr. Safadi said Monday while visiting Germany. With Berlin’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, at his side, he berated the host country’s policy: “When will Germany impose sanctions on those who clearly violate international law and international humanitarian law?” He was referring to Israel.

Jordan is ”caught between its urge to excoriate Israel, on the one hand, and to safeguard its own interests on the other,” a vice president at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy, Jonathan Schanzer, says. The Hashemite kingdom, he adds, “must arrive at the conclusion, sooner or later, that Israel is key to its own survival. Amman’s acerbic rhetoric must change.”