Will Dr. Oz Stumble Into the Pit of Lowered Expectations?

History suggests that he be careful of underestimating John Fetterman in the debate scheduled for October 25.

AP Photo/Ryan Collerd
Dr. Mehmet Oz speaks at House of Glory Philly CDC at Philadelphia, September 19, 2022. AP Photo/Ryan Collerd

It’s anticipated that on October 25 the Democratic candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania, John Fetterman, will stumble throughout his lone debate with his Republican opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz, sinking his campaign. Lurking behind this narrative is a classic political trap: The Pit of Lowered Expectations. 

Prior to the first presidential debate of 2020, Republicans mocked President Biden as a feeble, befuddled fool unable to string together coherent sentences. “He’s shot,” as Mr. Trump put it often. When the Democrat didn’t collapse into a drooling mess behind the podium, he triumphed.

In 2000, both candidates tried to lay the trap. President George W. Bush’s communications director, Karen Hughes, called Mr. Bush’s Democratic opponent, Vice President Gore, “the best debater in modern American politics,” saying that Mr. Bush “had done very few debates.”

Democrats responded in kind, with the Democratic vice-presidential candidate, Senator Joseph Lieberman, saying, “Governor Bush is a good debater. He’s been in the ring with a couple of real pros.” In the end, both avoided falling into the trap.

None of Dr. Oz’s partisans have sought to praise the rhetorical prowess of Mr. Fetterman, letting stand that in recent conversations, he has relied on transcription software to read questions. “I always have been very honest about saying, ‘I need captioning,’” Mr. Fetterman said in a Facebook Live interview.

He then shrugged off the challenge he’ll face, making common cause with others who rely on similar technology, adding, “[T]he truth is that half of Americans that watch TV use captions, too.” This lays the groundwork to claim victory if he performs even as well as he did in the interviews.

In a pair of sit downs, including with NBC News, Mr. Fetterman stumbled and transposed words, but was in general able to understand the questions well and deliver intelligible responses. Dr. Oz’s can presume the digital assist will function at least as well when they meet.

I’m familiar with transcription from my time working for radio host Rush Limbaugh, who conducted conversations despite going deaf. When it comes to this technology, Dr. Oz’s strengths as a television veteran and physician will work against him. 

The Republican is a smooth, slow, deliberate speaker. He gets to the point with succinctness to be clear in his meaning and to be understood without confusion. A fast-talking New Yorker, someone with a thick accent, or non-native English speaker would be a different story.

Transcribing slang, jargon, and unfamiliar names would also cause glitches like those in the CNN example. But none of those hurdles loom for the debate. It would be a different story if, say, the software were required to keep up with President Biden’s halting speech, in which he often repeats, goes off on a tangent, or interrupts himself.

Take Mr. Biden’s remarks to CNN’s Jake Tapper about his son, Hunter. The president said to the human ear, “I guess you had… get asked… I don’t guess. You get asked, ‘Are you on drugs? Do you use drugs?’ He said, ‘No,’ so…” Here, Mr. Tapper interjected, “Where?” Mr. Biden responded, “In his book.”

A popular transcription software rendered this as gobbledygook that would be impossible for Mr. Fetterman to comprehend. “I guess I guess to ask the question, are you on drugs? You use drugs? He said, no. And he wrote about Shame No More in his book.” Note that Mr. Tapper’s interruption, like any crosstalk, tends to confound the software.

Will Dr. Oz talk over his opponent? If he does, Mr. Fetterman will be prepared to call him on it, or the moderator may do the job for him. There is little appetite for not letting your opponent finish sentences after Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden talked over each other so much in that first in-person sparring session.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, Mr. Fetterman is well positioned and can emerge victorious by keeping his head and being practiced in reading transcription as if it’s the spoken word. All eyes will be on him when the debate kicks off, but it’s Dr. Oz who would be wise to watch his step or risk falling into the pit hiding unseen on the stage.


The New York Sun

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