Jerusalem and Tehran are likely headed into a sharp escalation after a strike on Tehran killed senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday. The strike in Iran’s capital came on the heels of a similar attack on Beirut that killed a military advisor to Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah, Fuad Shukr, on Tuesday night. 

America has a critical role to play to contain Iran and its regional proxy network to prevent this conflict from spilling over into a regional war. 

Jerusalem has not taken credit for the strike that killed Haniyeh at Tehran. Yet it did claim responsibility for the attack on the Lebanese capital, a response to the July 27 Hezbollah missile attack that massacred 12 Israeli children who were playing on a soccer field. 

Jerusalem is signaling that they are not interested in a further escalation with Iran or its network of regional proxies, although many in Israel are bracing for a retaliation. 

Jerusalem waited three days to respond to Hezbollah’s soccer field slaughter, during which time there was plenty of back-channeling by America and other mediators. The precision strike at Beirut was calibrated to be a significant blow, but one that could potentially remain contained. This is what the White House wants. 

Only Hezbollah may respond forcefully and has the capabilities to do so. The terror group’s arsenal includes 150,000 rockets — including long-range missiles and several hundred precision guided munitions — that could overwhelm Israel’s air defenses and potentially strike high-value military targets, civilian infrastructure, or worse.  

To contend with Hezbollah’s formidable arsenal, the IDF must rapidly destroy as many of Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities as possible, before they can be deployed against the Jewish state. Israel will have to go to war to defang Hezbollah, and Iran will not likely sit idly by while Israel destroys its most valuable subsidiary. 

Tehran has invested billions building Hezbollah into the army it is today and will likely activate its network of regional proxies to preserve its crown jewel. 

Given the humiliating strike on Tehran, which took place under the nose of the regime, Iran may feel compelled to get directly involved in this fight to save face. 

Iran’s response to the Jewish state could come from Hezbollah or another member of Iran’s regional proxy network in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen. Iran may choose to strike Israeli or Jewish targets abroad. The response could also come directly from Iranian soil. 

If Tehran signals it is ready to embark on a regional conflict, the Biden administration must provide its full-throated support to Jerusalem and rally its regional security architecture — as it did in April — to defend the Jewish state against Iran and its proxies. 

Israel will not ask for American boots on the ground. It never has. 

Yet a good American-led defense may not be enough to deter Iran from igniting a regional war. To contain the Israel-Lebanon conflict, America should put Iranian proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen on notice.

If Tehran understands that its network of regional proxies is at risk of being dealt a crippling blow by a combination of American and Israeli airstrikes, it might decide to sit this one out. 

If Washington hesitates or attempts to restrain the Jewish state, it will further embolden Iran, and the conflict will more likely devolve into a catastrophic war that could set the region ablaze.