In President Biden’s first public response to the extraordinary events that weaken President Putin’s leadership in Russia, the leader of the Free World could merely imitate the famed rapper Shaggy in saying: It wasn’t me. 

“We gave Putin no excuse to blame this on the West and to blame this on NATO,” Mr. Biden said Monday. “We made clear that we were not involved. We had nothing to do with it, this was part of a struggle within the Russian systems.” 

The president was apparently responding to Moscow officials, including the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, who indicated they would investigate whether America was behind the weekend march led by the Wagner mercenary group’s commander, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

In a speech to the nation late Monday, Mr. Putin declined to mention his former protege and so-called chef by name. Yet he referred to the weekend events as “mutiny” by “neo-Nazis.” He advised “patriot” Wagner soldiers that they can join the Russian army, but Mr. Prigozhin, once favored by the Kremlin, seems to be on the outs.

While Mr. Prgozhin’s location is unknown, he is widely advised to keep a distance from windows and to avoid drinking tea — two of the favored assassination methods believed used by Mr. Putin’s agents. Yet, why did the Russian agree to a deal orchestrated by President Lukashenko of Belarus, a Russian satrap whose leader is nevertheless despised by Mr. Putin?  

On Saturday Mr. Putin made a “rather alarmist address about how it might be 1917 all over again, and that we would crush them, and they are treasonous — and then you make a deal?” is how a former secretary of state who is fluent in the Russian language, Condoleeza Rice, posed the question to Fox News.

Meanwhile, as Russian leadership seems to be falling apart, why did Mr. Biden seize on marginal Kremlin conspiracy theories to open his message on the weekend events? The idea that America was behind Mr. Prigozhin was derived, perhaps, from weekend reports that Washington knew in advance about the Wagner move. 

A former North Atlantic Treaty Organization official, John Lough, who liaised for NATO with Moscow, echoed that notion in a briefing for the Evercore ISI group on Monday. “U.S. authorities knew about preparations for the mutiny in advance, but Putin did not,” he said. “Clearly, parts of the Russian intelligence services colluded with Prigozhin, as did sections of the military and the internal security forces.”

Cultivating an image of invincibility in more than 20 years in power, Mr. Putin now seems like a weakened strongman. He has “lost his previous ability to be the arbiter between powerful rival groups,” Mr. Lough writes on the Chatham House website. “This has undermined his public image in Russia as the all-powerful tsar, and called into question his value as a protector of elites’ status and wealth.”

Earlier Monday, the Kremlin released a video of Mr. Prigozhin’s arch nemesis, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, portraying him as back in command of the Ukraine war. While the video had no clear timeline, the mere act of releasing it was meant to end speculations and signal that Mr. Putin “has sided with Shoigu,” a Russia watcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, John Hardie, tells the Sun. 

There was no indication that “there has been a change in the chain of command at this point,” the National Security Council’s spokesman, John Kirby, told reporters Monday. 

An unrepentant Mr. Prigozhin, meanwhile, widened his attack at Mr. Shoigu’s handling of the Ukraine war. In an audio recording from an undisclosed location, the Wagner commander denied on Monday that he had tried to unseat Mr. Putin. 

“The goal of our campaign was to prevent the destruction of Wagner Group and hold accountable the individuals who, through their unprofessional actions, made a significant number of mistakes” in Ukraine, Mr. Prigizhin said. 

The main cause of Mr. Prigozhin’s march, which got his mercenary troops as close as 125 miles to Moscow, was Mr. Shoigu’s demand to enlist all of Wagner’s 50,000 soldiers as members of the national army by July 1 — hence Mr. Prigozhin’s reference to the “destruction” of his group. 

As Mr. Kirby made clear, Mr. Shoigu’s dispute with Mr. Prigozhin was no secret. It has been played in public as the two men traded accusations for setbacks in Ukraine for months. In the past, Mr. Putin was able to use such disputes to his advantage, making sure his underlings never grew too big for his britches and challenged the man on the top. 

Between Mr. Putin’s televised address on Saturday, in which he appeared “frightened and betraying panic,” and Monday’s address, the president “promptly disappeared from public view,” Mr. Lough writes. “The disloyalty in the ranks of military and security services and the disappearance from sight of Rosgvardiya, Putin’s praetorian guard, now pose a serious problem for the Russian president.” 

Mr. Biden is right to avoid interfering as the Kremlin implodes from within. Yet, unlike Shaggy, whose denials of cheating on his girl ring hollow, no serious observer believes America is behind the events that diminish Mr. Putin. Denial is unnecessary.