If Hamas is to survive as a terrorist organization bent on destroying Israel and replacing it with an Islamist state, it will need a leader to replace the ruthless, charismatic, and blood-thirsty Yahya Sinwar, who was killed at Rafah on Wednesday. So, who’s next? 

Lebanon’s LBCI television reported on Friday that a “Hamas abroad” candidate, Doha-based Khaled Mashaal, has been chosen as the terror group’s acting political leader. Even if true, Hamas watchers say much internal struggle awaits the organization before a new leader assumes power — if at all.

”It’s too early to tell,” an Arab world watcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, Yoni Ben Menachem, tells the Sun. “For now, Mohammed Sinwar replaces his brother in Gaza, but not at the top of the organization as a whole.”

Even if Mr. Sinwar indeed consolidates his rule of Gaza, it is unclear that he will be able to follow his brother in keeping an eye on the remaining 101 hostages, who are held by several Hamas-affiliated groups across the Strip. In Yahya Sinwar’s absence, will some hostage-holders cut deals to save their own skins? 

Following Yahya Sinwar’s death, Prime Minister Netanyahu offered amnesty to any Gazan who would lay down arms and release hostages. He vowed to kill those who refuse to do so. The premier, however, refrained from mentioning negotiations with Hamas, which America is aiming to revive in the hope of ending the war. 

If negotiations resume, Hamas will need to present a political leader to conduct them, but that position is being contested. 

Mr. Mashaal, who survived a botched Mossad assassination at Amman, Jordan, in 1977, is considered close to Ankara. He is said to be less favored by Hamas’s top benefactor for decades, Tehran. If Mr. Mashaal assumes the political leadership, Turkey is expected to increase its influence over Hamas. 

Another Doha-based senior Hamas official, Khalil al-Hayya, is also seen as a possible contender for the political leadership. He was close to Sinwar and on Friday he emerged as the first Hamas official to publicly acknowledge and mourn the death of the “ascetic, worshiping, pious man.” 

Hamas, Mr. al-Hayya vowed, will continue fighting “until the establishment of the Palestinian state on all Palestinian soil with Jerusalem as its capital.” That he was the first to speak of Sinwar’s death, though, “doesn’t necessarily mean he will be the next political leader,” Mr. Ben Menchem says. 

Another contender is Moussa Abu Marzouk, who had served as deputy political leader to Ismail Haniyeh before the latter’s killing at Tehran. Yet, Mr. Abu Marzouk, a frequent guest on television programs, angered Gazans when he spilled the beans recently, saying publicly that Hamas’s role is to defend its fighters while the job of protecting civilians falls solely to the United Nations.  

While there are other “Hamas abroad” candidates for the political leadership, their authority will largely depend on ties with the Strip. Gaza tunnels and private homes are where hostages are held, and where the terrorists maintain their dwindling military power. This is likely where Hamas’s future, if there is to be one, will be determined.

Gaza’s new boss, Mohammed Sinwar, was top aide to his slain older brother. He has already assumed the group’s military command, following Mohammed Deif’s killing in July. Like Yahya, Mohammed spent time in Israeli prisons, and was also incarcerated by the Palestinian Authority. He somehow managed to escape from the latter and return to his native Gaza. 

The two brothers ran a terror regime in the Strip for decades, torturing and killing anyone suspected of collaborating with Israel or of running afoul of Islamic diktats. Yet, the younger brother himself has been accused of un-Islamic behavior. “Mohammed Sinwar is a pedofile,” a former intelligence director at Israel’s prison authority, Betty Lahat, told Kan News Thursday.

According to various reports, two underage male inmates complained that Mohammed Sinwar raped them while in prison. Other tales of sexual abuse of boys are widespread in Gaza, perhaps eroding his image. Mohammed, however, is married and like his late brother is known as “Abu Ibrahim.”    

Mohammed Sinwar “doesn’t have the same abilities as Yahya Sinwar,” Ms. Lahat, who has spent much time interrogating the two brothers, says. “I don’t believe that the brother can run this much-damaged Hamas operation by himself.”

Israel is increasingly proving that terrorists’ lifespans are much shortened once they assume top powers. That could perhaps deter anyone aspiring to take a Hamas leadership post.