After 25 years of socialist misrule, oil-rich Venezuela will reach a turning point Sunday.  Presidential elections offer a clear choice for the future of the only nation in the Americas that’s a member of the oil cartel known as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

On one side is the incumbent president, Nicolas Maduro, a Cuban-trained former Caracas bus driver who has presided over his nation’s economic collapse and the emigration of 8 million Venezuelans, about one quarter of the  population. At 61, Mr. Maduro, advised by Cuban military intelligence and armed by Russia, is determined to win a third six-year term.

On the other side is Edmundo González Urrutia, an affable, soon-to-be 75-year-old grandfather, a former diplomat and an active bird-lover. Mr. González is the stand-in for María Corina Machado, a fiery former congresswoman who was disqualified for running. Dressed in white and wearing a cross, Ms. Machado is Latin America’s newest political sensation. With near religious fervor, women flock to rallies, trying to touch her, calling out “María! María!” 

Sometimes called the Dama de Hierro, or Iron Lady, Ms. Machado, aged 56,  promises to “bury socialism forever.” By reviving Venezuela’s once-prosperous economy, she promises to bring families back together. Because her father owned a steel mill and she went to a boarding school in Massachusetts, government supporters call her a “fascist oligarch.” In reply, she calls the Maduro government  a “criminal mafia.”

Polls indicate that Dama de Hierro has succeeded in transferring her popularity to her stand-in. In a surprise, the former ambassador, a virtually unknown figure, suddenly soared in polls. In a Meganálisis poll completed two weeks ago, he won 72 percent of voter intentions, up from 32 percent last April. Mr. Maduro was supported by 12 percent this month. In an average of three polling companies — Meganálisis, Delphos, and ORC Consultores — the president won the approval of 16 percent, compared to 63.5 percent for Mr. González.

For Americans, Sunday’s vote is as abstract as the Venezuelan refugees who pack homeless shelters today in New York City.  In a Meganálisis poll last May, 41 percent of respondents said they would emigrate if the elections do not lead to a change in government.

Since the first Socialist leader, Hugo Chávez Frías, won election in 1998, Venezuela suffered what the International Monetary Fund calls “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in almost half a century.” Today in this OPEC country, with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, 82 percent of Venezuela’s 31 million people live in poverty. Of these, 53 percent are in extreme poverty, unable to buy even basic food, a United Nations special rapporteur said in February.

Last fall, a peak time for emigration from Venezuela, Venezuelans outstripped Mexicans as the top nationality crossing America’s southern border. This year, 14,000 have crossed monthly. A stolen election at Caracas could cause a big headache at Washington if migration swells in the weeks before the American presidential vote.

Mr. Maduro shows no sign of bending to popular anger.

The other night on state television, he read out mock election results in which he notched “an irreversible victory.” He predicted: “Come rain, shine or lightning…we’re going to win by a landslide.” Routinely, he threatens to send his followers to attack opposition activists with “Bolivarian Fury,” a reference to Simón Bolívar, the nation’s 19th-century founding father. Last week, he told a campaign event that without his victory, Venezuela would fall “into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war.”

This violent political rhetoric, coupled with a dismal showing in polls, prompted leaders of  Latin America’s traditional left to distance themselves this week from the Venezuelan leader.

“I was scared by Maduro’s remarks that Venezuela could face bloodshed if he loses,” Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, told reporters Monday. “Maduro needs to learn that when you win, you stay; when you lose, you leave.” Brazil withdrew its election observers from Venezuela, a northern neighbor. Argentina’s former president, Alberto Fernández, also a leftist, said he agreed with the Brazilian president’s views. On Wednesday, he was disinvited to come to Caracas as an election observer.

Chile’s president, Gabriel Boric, also a leftist, said Monday that Venezuelan officials should “respect the normal development of the electoral process, with a special guarantee for the opposition, giving unfettered respect to accredited results.” Speaking at Santiago, he added: “You can’t threaten with a bloodbath. What leaders and candidates should get are a ‘bath’ of votes that represent popular sovereignty and must be respected at all costs.”

Mr. Maduro’s last election, in 2018, was boycotted  by the opposition and later denounced  by the Organization of American States as a “farce.” America, Canada, and 14 Latin American nations called the election “illegitimate.”

This time, the socialists are using all their ingenuity to tilt the election in their favor. Starting in April, the Education Ministry changed the names of 6,000 schools. Since schools are often voting places, this strategy will confuse some voters. In opposition strongholds, voters on Sunday most likely will find there is only one ballot box – a strategy to create long lines. 

On the paper ballots, photographs of Mr. Maduro occupy the entire first line and part of the second. He is the candidate for 13 parties. To confuse opposition voters, a fake candidacy has been created with a similar party name and colors as the coalition backing Mr. González, the opposition candidate. To suppress opposition voting, the government has made it almost impossible for the 4.5 million voters overseas — about 20 percent of the electorate — to cast ballots.

In response, opposition activists have trained one “witness” or monitor for almost all of the 30,000 voting tables in the country. Many opposition leaders predict that Sunday will represent their last chance to remove Mr. Maduro from power.

With the threat of violence in the air and about 300 opposition activists already in jail, White House security spokesman John Kirby started his regular briefing yesterday with Venezuela. “We support peaceful elections that we expect and hope will come on Sunday,” he said. “Any political repression and violence is unacceptable.”

After a EU election observer mission was disinvited, the only foreign observers are believed to be from a UN agency and from the Carter Center, at Atlanta.
At Caracas yesterday, Mr. González  and Ms. Machado led a mass rally of tens of thousands  of supporters and closed his campaign with a direct appeal to the military, sometimes the ultimate arbiters in Venezuela politics. “We are going to win,”  he told reporters at Caracas. “We trust that our armed forces will respect the will of our people.” He added:  “Millions of Venezuelans want change.”