Sir Keir Starmer isn’t exactly getting whacked on both ends — not for now, anyway. The comeback of President Trump paired with the incipient surge in support for new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch spells trouble for a prime minister whose approval ratings have sunk to historic lows.

This means, among other things, that what some in the British press have dubbed Typhoon Orange has already made landfall. A left-wing British leader clinging to his post can adroitly keep up appearances, but will also face headwinds.

His own Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, has previously called Trump “a profound threat to the international order that has been the foundation of western progress for so long.” The vaunted special transatlantic relationship will be put to the test on matters of trade and possibly security, too.

The gears of Trump’s second act are already in motion. Their impact is already being felt and not only in Great Britain but also in France, across Germany and central Europe and all the way to Greece and Turkey. Call it “MAGA” power or the sheer momentum of the election result, but the fault lines of numerous European electoral tectonics are already shifting. 

The New York Times describes a new Trump era, that “could spell a lonely and dangerous stretch for Europe, which is already mired in economic stagnation and rattled by war on its eastern doorstep.” It reckons that the moment “demands renewed and forceful leadership from the continent’s two largest economies” but that “France and Germany, which are also the European Union’s most important countries, are struggling to answer the call.”

It may be just waiting in the wings. Italy already has a strong conservative leader in Giorgia Meloni, as does Hungary with Viktor Orbán, and it might as well be said, Ukraine has a leader in President Zelensky who has done more to build that country’s brand than any other. London may be lacking, but if anything the last couple of years have shown just how susceptible Downing Street is to seemingly sudden shake ups that pretty much everybody saw coming.

In most of Europe, as the Times notes, the backlash to immigration, inflation, and arguably most of all to ruling elites is fierce and ongoing. Could Paris soon have its own rendezvous à la rouge with America’s “red wave”? Arguably it began last June when President Macron dissolved parliament, a gamble that saw the far right National Rally emerge as the most powerful political party in France. 

Not one to rest on his laurels, the party president, 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, just wrote a book called (in English) “What I’m Looking For.” It is  a cheeky title, because despite all niceties what he and Marine Le Pen are looking for is to check into the Élysée Palace, possibly even before Mr. Macron’s term expires in 2027. In an interview with Le Journal du Dimanche, Mr. Bardella hinted at this. 

“Emmanuel Macron seems more concerned about his image than the fate of the French,” he said, adding that “Fascinated by economic theories, he ignores the profound problems affecting many French neighborhoods. His reaction after the riots shows his blindness: Everyone saw them coming, except him.” Tellingly, he added, “The real tragedy of this country is to have leaders disconnected from the suffering of their fellow citizens.”

Mr. Macron’s appointment of a tough-talking interior minister, Bruno Retailleau, was seen by many as a bid to placate his chief political nemeses on the right, namely Mr. Bardella and Ms. Le Pen. That has worked so far, but tensions are brewing.

“We are currently discussing the state budget, which reflects political choices,” Mr. Bardella said, adding that  “We defend measures to revive growth and protect the purchasing power of workers and we fight the ‘fiscal sadism’ of the left.” The coup de grâce: “We have red lines. If they are crossed, the government will face a motion of censure.”

If the current French government faces a no-confidence vote in the new year, it could precipitate Mr. Macron’s resignation. Without a parliamentary majority and with tumbling approval ratings, it seems that few French would be sad to see him go — particularly the ones who voted for the National Rally in the snap legislative elections last July. 

Those are the voters who still have the momentum, as they do elsewhere in Europe right now. In America it’s now clear that what the Orange Typhoon and the popular movement behind it has done is rob the Democrats of a compass —  they had. That will accelerate the changes coming to Europe’s frayed political map.

As Trump’s success stirs the currents of popular European discontent, the Continental conservatives are getting a boost but the  Starmers, Macrons, and Scholzes may not have it in them to read the room. History has shown that without French stability, there is no stability in Europe.