In a sign of how imperiled his reelection may be, President Biden — despite winning South Carolina’s Democratic primary by a landslide Saturday — is trailing President Trump by the largest margin in the history of the NBC News poll, which now shows the incumbent’s disapproval rating at a record high. 

The poll shows Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden in a general election 47 percent to 42 percent — outside of the margin of error of 3.1 percent. Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden for the first time in the NBC poll in November of last year, but that two-point lead was within the poll’s margin of error. 

Mr. Biden’s approval rating has reached a historic low, according to this poll, with just 37 percent approving of his job performance and 60 percent disapproving. The last president to have an approval rating that low was President George W. Bush. 

Mr. Trump beats his successor on nearly all issues, but opens especially large leads on dealing with the economy and securing the border. When the two men are put head-to-head, 55 percent of voters say Mr. Trump will handle the economy better, while just 33 percent trust Mr. Biden. On the border, 57 percent say Mr. Trump would be more effective, while 22 percent say they prefer Mr. Biden. 

Voters overwhelmingly say both Messrs. Biden and Trump lack the necessary mental and physical stamina to occupy the presidency, but Mr. Biden is viewed much worse on this metric than his predecessor. While 46 percent of voters say Mr. Trump has the mental and physical capabilities to handle the job, just 23 percent say Mr. Biden is up to the task. 

Both are also viewed to incompetent and ineffective by the voters, but once again, Mr. Biden is viewed even more negatively. Among respondents, 48 percent say Mr. Trump will be a “competent and effective” executive, while just 32 percent say that of Mr. Biden. 

His actions abroad have won him no friends at home. On foreign policy, just 34 percent of voters approve of his job performance while 60 percent disapprove. Specifically on the Israel–Hamas war, just 29 percent approve of how he has handled the crisis, and 60 percent of voters disapprove. 

Mr. Biden is failing to win over key demographics that put him in the White House in the first place. The NBC poll shows Messrs. Trump and Biden are tied for voters aged 18 to 34, each winning 42 percent. According to the nonpartisan Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, Mr. Biden won that demographic by nearly 25 points in the last election. Among independents, 48 percent say they will vote for Mr. Trump while just 29 percent say they will vote for the incumbent. 

Mr. Trump has also made significant gains among non-white voters according to this poll. The former president now leads his successor by one point — 42 percent to 41 percent — among Hispanic voters, who voted for Mr. Biden overwhelmingly in 2020, 65 percent to 32 percent. 

Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by 59 points among Black voters, but that is down significantly from his 75-point win among the demographic over Mr. Trump in 2020. 

Among respondents, 73 percent say the country is currently on the wrong track, while just 22 percent believe America is moving in the right direction. 

The only scenario in which Mr. Biden leads his predecessor is if Mr. Trump is convicted of a felony. NBC News asked voters how they would vote if Mr. Trump was convicted and they said, by a margin of 45 percent to 43 percent, they would vote for Mr. Biden in that case. 

Republicans were quick to hype up the polls as evidence of Mr. Trump’s strength. “NBC News just released a poll that destroys all narratives about Trump not being ‘electable,’” Senator Blackburn wrote on X. “Joe Biden is the worst President in the history of our country and America has had enough!”

Speaker Gingrich says that if this polling bears out, then Republicans are on track for a historic victory this year. “Today’s NBC News Poll is a real warning for Democrats,” he wrote. “These are staggering numbers for Democrats. A positive, solutions oriented GOP could win a Reagan scale victory this fall.”