In the wake of President Biden’s disastrous June debate performance and the subsequent Republican National Convention, President Trump has expanded his lead in the critical state of Michigan to seven points. If that holds, it would be the largest victory for a Republican in the state since President George H.W. Bush in 1988. 

According to the poll from the Detroit Free Press, Trump leads Mr. Biden in a head-to-head match, 49 percent to 42 percent, with nine percent undecided. “It’s only going to add to the pressure on Biden to step aside and have someone replace him,” said the pollster who conducted the survey, Bernie Porn. “The Democrats are in a difficult position.”

In a five-way race that includes the major third party challengers, Trump maintains his seven-point lead over the incumbent. In that scenario, Trump leads with 43 percent to Mr. Biden’s 36 percent. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. takes just eight percent while Green Party candidate Jill Stein and left-wing independent candidate Cornel West each take two percent. 

The poll was conducted in its entirety after the June debate that led many Democrats to begin calling on Mr. Biden to drop out of the race in favor of a younger candidate. On Sunday, Senator Manchin became the fifth senator to call on the president to “pass the torch.” More than 20 House Democrats have said Mr. Biden should step aside.

The last Detroit Free Press poll, conducted before the debate, found Trump had a much smaller lead over Mr. Biden. In a head-to-head with Mr. Biden, Trump led by just found points and in a five-way race by just three points — within the poll’s four-point margin of error. 

Most notably, Trump has seemingly taken a lead in the metro Detroit area — the most Democratic part of that state, and one that should be the driver of Mr. Biden’s viability. Despite winning the region — comprising Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties — by 16 points in 2020, Mr. Biden now trails Trump in the three counties by a margin of 43 percent to 38 percent in a five-way race. 

In a sign of their confidence, the first stop the Trump campaign made following their convention was in Michigan. Trump and his running mate, Senator Vance, appeared before thousands of fans at Grand Rapids on Saturday night where the former president talked about the moment he was shot one week prior. 

“It was exactly one week ago, even to the hour, even to the minute,” Trump said of the shooting in Pennsylvania. “I stand before you only by the grace of almighty God,” he added. “I shouldn’t be here right now.”

The Free Press poll was conducted on Wednesday, four days after the shooting. 

Congresswoman Hillary Scholten, a swing-district Democrat who represents Grand Rapids, Michigan, is one of the House members calling on Mr. Biden to step aside, in part, because she feels he cannot win her home state. 

“The people of Michigan’s Third Congressional District elected me to represent them with integrity. They elected a Congresswoman they trust to speak the truth, even when it’s hard. They voted for someone who would put America’s future first and stand up for what is right. That’s what I am doing now,” she wrote, explaining that Mr. Biden was not viable enough as a candidate to lead. 

Michigan, along with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, make up the critical “blue wall states” that the Biden campaign now reportedly sees as their only path to victory. Mr. Biden’s 2020 win was powered not only by his victory in those states, but in sunbelt states like Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, which seem increasingly out of reach for the Democrats this year. 

In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Mr. Biden trails his predecessor by four points and two points, respectively, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average.