President-elect Trump is offering his “complete and total endorsement” to Speaker Johnson ahead of the vote to elect a speaker of the House on Friday. Mr. Johnson had been twisting in the wind for two weeks after he unveiled a spending package without the president-elect’s prior knowledge, which led some Republicans to question if the speaker was worth keeping. 

When the 119th Congress convenes on January 3, the House will take a noon vote. At that time, Republicans will have 219 seats to the Democrats’ 215. Congressman Matt Gaetz abruptly resigned from the 118th Congress and has said he will not return for the new session, leaving one open seat. 

“The American people need IMMEDIATE relief from all of the destructive policies of the last Administration. Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday morning. “He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement.”

Trump’s grasp on the House GOP, however, may be much more tenuous than he knows, and with only a one-seat margin of error, Mr. Johnson and Trump could still be in for a fight on Friday. 

Congressman Thomas Massie first announced he would not vote for Mr. Johnson under any circumstances, saying in an interview with CNN before Christmas that he did not want to enter negotiations with the speaker, but rather believed he no longer deserved the job. Several other members of the House told the Sun before the holiday recess that they were unsure about whom they would back for the top slot in the House. 

Mr. Massie reiterated on Monday that he would not vote for Mr. Johnson despite Trump’s public support. 

“I respect and support President Trump, but his endorsement of Mike Johnson is going to work out about as well as his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan. We’ve seen Johnson partner with the democrats to send money to Ukraine, authorize spying on Americans, and blow the budget,” Mr. Massie wrote on X. 

Mr. Johnson’s most ardent foes say he does not deserve the job because of how he bungled government spending deals over the course of the last year. Congressman Chip Roy, who excoriated the speaker for the short-term funding deal earlier this month, citing the hundreds of billions of dollars in deficit spending in the bill, is one lawmaker withholding support from Mr. Johnson for now. 

“You never have any ounce of self-respect to go out and campaign, saying you’re gonna balance the budget and then come in here and pass $110 billion,” Mr. Roy yelled at his Republican colleagues on the House floor during the spending bill debate. According to Politico, Mr. Roy is now making calls to other lawmakers to see if they would be interested in supporting Congressman Jim Jordan for the speakership. Mr. Jordan wrote in an X post on Monday that he would support Mr. Johnson for the post. 

To be elected speaker, a candidate must win a majority of all members who cast a vote for an individual, so if the current House makeup sits at 219 Republicans to 215 Democrats on Friday, then Mr. Johnson must win 218 votes to be elected speaker. Should Mr. Massie stand by his pledge to not vote for Mr. Johnson under any circumstances, then Mr. Johnson can afford to lose no other members on the floor. 

Another path to the gavel could be if Mr. Johnson cajoles holdout members into voting “present,” which would then lower the number needed to be elected, though even then he does not have much wiggle room because Democrats already have 215 seats. In 2023, Speaker McCarthy was elected to the post with just 216 votes after he got six of his fellow Republicans to vote present on the floor.