The most frustrating part of the last month of the 2024 presidential campaign was the chorus of supposedly sophisticated analysts who focused on daily campaign activities and highlighting specific actions rather than the big picture

Was a comedian’s stupid joke about Puerto Rico historically more important than the reality that President Donald J. Trump filled Madison Square Garden with 20,000 supporters — or that he built a broad coalition including Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Hulk Hogan, and Dr. Phil?

Similarly, was Beyoncé’s appearance with Vice President Harris more significant than Harris’s decline in support among African American men and Latino voters?

The so-called experts were focused on the politics of politics. The shallow daily activities loomed so large in their minds that they could not focus on the deep underlying patterns overwhelming the traditional order.

The propagandistic press’s intense, almost fanatic, passion for stopping President Trump made it almost impossible for it to look at the currents propelling him to victory.

The Trump victory was not a surprise if you looked at the politics of history rather than the politics of politics.

History is moving in a direction the elites simply can’t accept. Scott Rasmussen’s analysis of the “elite 1 percent” makes clear that the reporters, analysts, and editors who kept hoping Ms. Harris would rise above the historic currents are out of touch with reality. They simply have no common ground on which to understand the American people.

These deeper historical patterns (something I had lived through with Ronald Reagan in 1980 and with the Contract with America in 1994) led me to believe President Trump would probably win against any Democratic opponent.

Because the elites were the people against whom the rest of the country was rebelling, it was virtually impossible for them to change. Yet, the tide of history can be obvious. If you are interested in the deeper politics of history rather than the shallow daily politics of politics, certain realities shape your thinking.

Throughout Europe, there has been a revolt against elitism and the old order. Candidates who were deemed unacceptable to the elites won growing majorities.

People have begun to conclude that the post-World War II system of welfare state benefits, large powerful bureaucracies, and globalist international order has been a bad deal for them. They feel it has been bad for their pocketbooks, beliefs, and safety. Increasingly, they are rejecting it by voting for candidates who horrify the elites.

The problem in 2024 was that political analysts were comparing two political campaigns when only one existed — Ms. Harris’s. Trump was not running a traditional political campaign. He was the leader of a national movement in which the American people created him fully as much as he attracted them. 

Anyone who drifted through small town America would have noticed the number of spontaneous store fronts for “47.” Anyone who walked around Trump rallies would have found supporters who had driven hundreds of miles and waited for endless hours to see the champion of their movement.

The greatest challenge for the Democrats and their elitist friends is to come to grips with the reality that they were the problem. Their attitude, performance failures, and out of touch policy drove everyday Americans into a change movement led by President Trump.

This movement has decisively taken over the Republican Party. It has tentatively taken over America — and the election of 2026 will help us understand if MAGA in office can perform well enough to strengthen and deepen the movement.

The Democrats will now waste a lot of time looking for scapegoats. Their first choice will be President Biden for not getting out of the race earlier — and for performance failures which alienated millions. 

Their second choice will be Vice President Harris for not having run a good enough campaign. There will be hours spent looking at tactics, scheduling, turnout efforts, and dozens of other micro-level aspects of her campaign.

And they will learn nothing.

By contrast, if you go back and review the rise of Trump — starting in 2015 — you will begin to realize how big and profound this movement is.

You’ll also gain a far better understanding of the 2024 elections.