The Path to Kentucky Derby Glory Is Open in a Field Without a Favorite
A crowded field dreams of glory, but will a horse for the ages emerge from what looks like a fairly even field?
The starting gates for the 150th Kentucky Derby swing open Saturday, with eight races over the next three weekends for the opportunity to secure a spot in the Run for the Roses on May 4 at Churchill Downs.
A point system determines 18 entries in the Triple Crown Race at Louisville. The eight races over the next three weekends will see 100 points go to the winner, 50 points for second place, 25 points for third place, 15 for fourth, and 10 for fifth.
It begins on Saturday with the $1 million Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds at New Orleans and the $700,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park at Florence, Kentucky. “This is absolutely go time,” a television host and analyst at Gulfstream Park, Brian Nadeau, told the Sun.
Mr. Nadeau explains that “essentially the horses that run first and second in these races, it’s like an automatic qualifier into the Kentucky Derby. The 100 points is 1,000 percent going to get you in, and 50 points is about 99.9 percent that you’ll get in because some of these horses already have points. All these 100-point races are the last stop for qualifying so it’s absolutely go time.”
Following the Louisiana Derby, a G2 race, and the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), there are three races worth 200 points on March 30:: The UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai, the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream, and the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn. On April 1, the Wood Memorial (G2), the Blue Grass (G1), and the Santa Anita Derby (G1) will also award 200 points to the top five finishes.
“These have always been big races of their own accord,” the managing editor of Horse Racing Nation, Ron Flatter, tells the Sun. “The fact the winners qualify to go to the race that everyone pays attention to just gins up the fever that much more.”
Adding intrigue to the points race is the lack of early favorites to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. That could be a good thing. Favorites haven’t held up in recent years, with Marge winning last year at 15-1 and Rich Strike, an 80-1 longshot, charging along the rail to shock the world in 2023.
“If the Derby were run today, the favorite in the race would probably be 6-1, which means there isn’t a real favorite,” Mr. Nadeau says. “There’s a lot of different horses right now. This year, the Derby is as wide open as it’s been in a long, long time. Nobody has really stood out.”
The favorites at Saturday’s 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2) as of this writing are Track Phantom, Catching Freedom, Common Defense, and Agate Road. Track Phantom, trained by Steve Asmussen, already has 55 points after winning the first two scoring races at the Fairgrounds before losing to Sierra Leone in the Risen Star (G2) in February.
Another steed, Common Defense, enters with 27 points, while Catching Freedom looks to add to its 25 points. Agate Road, cross-entered in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, has 10 points.
“They’re the ones getting a lot of buzz right now,” Mr. Flatter said. “The favorite is Track Phantom. But it’s been a wide-open and disappointing year to some extent for 3-year-olds.”
Endlessly, Lucky Jeremy and Woodcut are the main contenders at the 53rd Jeff Ruby Steaks. Endlessly, trained by Michael McCarthy and based in Southern California, is making the cross-country trip to compete in the 1 1/8 mile race. He has three wins in five starts.
Just before those races start, Gulfstream Park at Hallandale Beach, Florida, will draw its lineup for the Florida Derby next weekend. Two horses expected to run in Florida are Fierceness and Hades. Fierceness, trained by Todd Fletcher, has 36 points so far, while Hades, trained by Joseph Orseno, has 20, after winning the Holy Bull race at Gulfstream. Fierceness, the favorite, faded down the stretch and finished third.
Dornoch collected 50 of its 60 points by easily winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes earlier this month at Gulfstream. But he might skip the Florida Derby to run in the Blue Grass Stakes.
“The Florida Derby has a lot of success in terms of parlaying horses into the Kentucky Derby winners circle,” Mr. Nabeau says. “Last year, Mage ran second in the Florida Derby and went on to win the Kentucky Derby.”
Horses from Europe and Japan have their own point systems to determine who secures the one slot each are alotted. The Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse on Saturday awards 40 points to the winner. Drawing some attention is Forever Young, an unbeaten Japanese horse. He won the $1.5 million Saudi Derby (G3) in February and is expected to start in Dubai’s $1 million 1 3/16 mile UAE Derby (G2) next week.
