A competitive race for a seat on Wisconsin’s supreme court has mobilized both the left and right, with Democrats hoping to install a liberal majority for the first time in over a decade. 

On April 4, a liberal Milwaukee County Circuit judge, Janet Protasiewicz, will face off with a conservative former state supreme court justice, Daniel Kelly. Wisconsin elects their justices with a two-round voting system. Should no candidate win a majority of votes in the first round, then the top-two vote getters face off in a general election. In the first round, Judge Protasiewicz won 47 percent of the vote while Justice Kelly won 24 percent. 

Wisconsin elects their supreme court justices for a term of ten years. Justice Patience Roggensack, a conservative, announced her retirement from the bench last year, which has opened the opportunity for Democrats to win a majority on the seven-member court. 

The spending on this race has been astronomical, and recently became the most expensive judicial race in American history. According to recently released campaign filings, Judge Protasiewicz has raised just over $2 million while Justice Kelly has raised just $441,000.

The historic spending does not come from the campaigns themselves, however — it comes from the dark money groups supporting the candidates. Outside spending has risen dramatically since the first round of voting, with $20 million in television ads booked between now and the April 4 election. 

The groups supporting Judge Protasiewicz are spending $8 million on ads highlighting her support for abortion rights, while a Republican megadonor family, the Uihleins, have donated $4 million to support Justice Kelly. 

The race has profound implications. Judge Protasiewicz has openly campaigned on her commitment to not restrict abortion rights in the state, saying she would vote to overturn an 1849 state law banning abortions. She has seen a major influx of donations from the pro-abortion rights group EMILY’s List. 

Wisconsin Republicans have been criticized for drawing one of the most skewed legislative maps in the country, which essentially cements their majority in the state house. In 2018, Democratic candidates for the state assembly won 53 percent of the votes statewide, but only won 36 of the state’s 99 assembly seats. 

Activists have sued over the gerrymandered maps before, but have been stymied by conservatives on the Wisconsin supreme court. Last year, in a 4–3 decision, the court sided with the Republicans in upholding their legislative maps, handing them a major win. Democrats hope that, should Judge Protasiewicz win next month, a lawsuit challenging the gerrymander would be successful should it reach the Wisconsin justices. 

The balance of the court will likely help Governor Evers as well. In December 2018, after Governor Walker was ousted by Mr. Evers, Republicans in the state legislature moved to curtail the powers of the governor’s office before Democrats took over the top job. 

The package of laws, signed by Mr. Walker just weeks before he left office, curtailed the governor’s power in making appointments, issuing executive orders, and enacting state laws. It also mandated that Mr. Evers was not be allowed to make any changes to the state’s jobs agency for the first nine months of his tenure. 

Mr. Evers and the Democratic attorney general, Josh Kaul, have tried to sue over the laws before, but were blocked by the state supreme court. Democrats now believe that getting Judge Protasiewicz on to the bench will unshackle Mr. Evers from the restrictions put on him by Republicans. 

The race could also impact the entire nation. The way congressional maps are drawn in the state give an outsized advantage to Republicans. In 2018, Democratic candidates for the U.S. House in Wisconsin won a majority of the votes, but only carried three of the state’s eight congressional districts.

Like with the state legislative maps, the state supreme court has blocked challenges to the congressional map drawings in the past. If there is a Justice Protasiewicz, it would give the liberal majority on the court the chance to order redrawn maps. 

Judge Protasiewicz’s strong showing in the first round should give her an advantage in the coming election. Another liberal ran in the first round of voting, and he garnered around 7.5 percent. Together, the two liberals won nearly 55 percent of the vote in the first round. Justice Kelly and his conservative competitor only won a combined total of 45 percent.  

Justice Kelly has never before won a statewide election. He was appointed to fill a vacancy on the supreme court by Mr. Walker in 2016, but was defeated in his quest for a ten-year term in 2020 by a margin of more than ten points.