The Conventional Wisdom That This Is a Close Election Is Starting to Fray

If allowance is made for the fact that the Democrats carry California and New York by almost 5 million more votes than the Republicans comfortably carry Texas, Florida, and Tennessee, Trump is leading by about 8 million votes in the other 45 states.

AP/Matt Rourke
President Trump at Wildwood, New Jersey, May 11, 2024. AP/Matt Rourke

The vice presidential debate last week between Senator Vance and Governor Walz may have been the most important debate in many years, apart from the one that led to the withdrawal of President Biden. Mr. Vance completely debunked the theory that he was “weird,” harsh, an extremist, or anything but an intelligent, accomplished, courteous, and thoughtful person.

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