A West Virginia political scientist tells the Sun that a Department of Justice lawsuit against Governor Justice is likely a sideshow in what is expected to be a hotly contested contest with Senator Manchin, should the senator actually run for re-election.

The justice department on Wednesday filed a suit against Mr. Justice for failing to pay millions of dollars in civil penalties stemming from 130 health, safety, and environmental violations in recent years at a mining company he once owned. It is now owned by his son, Jay Justice.

While this isn’t the first time Mr. Justice or his businesses have landed in court for failing to pay debts, the suit against businesses associated with the wealthiest West Virginian made a splash because he recently launched a Senate campaign against one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.

Mr. Justice officially announced he was running for Mr. Manchin’s seat just weeks ago, meaning the suit against his companies came at an inopportune time for the governor.

Yet a political scientist at West Virginia University, Samuel Workman, tells the Sun that, despite the attention the suit might draw from elites and handicappers, it’s probably only a sideshow in the Senate campaign.

“If you were to talk to folks on the ground here, most people — if they were well informed on this — would say that anyone tied to coal is going to have these problems,” he said.

In Mr. Workman’s assessment, the lawsuit will be a nothingburger in a state where a huge number of politicians are tied to the coal industry and with it the unsavory business practices sometimes associated with the industry.

“The only way it matters is in regard to how Governor Justice wants to deploy his personal resources,” Mr. Workman said. “What I would say is that any implications from this are all at the elite level.”

While Mr. Workman said that Representative Alex Mooney, who is challenging Mr. Justice in the GOP primary, might try to make an issue of the company’s record, most West Virginia politicians know better than to try to take such digs at their opponents.

The single most important issue in the race, in Mr. Workman’s assessment, is whether Mr. Manchin decides to enter — a question that’s been on everyone’s mind from Charleston to Washington, D.C.

Given the state of the race, Mr. Workman says that Mr. Manchin is probably the only candidate who could deny Mr. Justice the Senate seat. “Anyone who told you they were fairly sure of what he’s going to do is probably lying,” he added.

Beyond the fact that Mr. Manchin has said he will not enter a race that he won’t win, and his habit of announcing his candidacy as late as possible, Mr. Manchin also has teased a possible presidential run, traveling to Iowa and associating with the well-funded nonpartisan No Labels group.

“The goal of a presidential run could be to gain the presidency, or it could be to get something after the fact like an administrative position,” Mr. Workman says.

On the Senate front, Mr. Workman says that the polls are likely overstating Mr. Justice’s lead at the moment, given that Mr. Manchin has not yet entered the race and isn’t yet acting like a candidate.

“In terms of a Senate race, I think the race will be much closer than what those polls indicate,” he says. “He really does try to stay, as people here would say, smack dab in the middle, because it gives him bargaining power both ways.”

While some polls have found that Mr. Justice enjoys a twenty-plus point lead, Mr. Workman expects Mr. Justice’s lead to shrink. He still considers Mr. Justice an early favorite but says that this will likely be the most competitive campaign in which either candidate has participated.

“What will happen in the Senate race is that both politicians will have never in their careers have faced politicians as able as they will if they face each other,” Mr. Workman says.