The Department of Commerce will release on Thursday its first estimates of America’s economic performance in the first quarter of 2024, which has been exceeding recent expectations but is not doing much to help the president in the polls. 

Analysts are predicting that economic growth slowed slightly to 3.1 percent this quarter from 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter, which surpassed predictions by economists of 1.5 percent annualized growth. This signals that the economy could hit a “soft landing” from elevated interest rates and lingering inflation, rather than a financial crash and recession, as many have feared.

American voters, though, see an economic doomsday ahead. Inflation, though it has cooled some, is a depressant when it comes to economic sentiment. A majority of respondents to the April Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll think the issue will get worse. Half say they expect borrowing costs to rise. As November’s election draws near, they’re pointing their fingers at the president. 

President Biden is “very” or “somewhat” responsible for the current performance of the American economy, according to nearly 80 percent of poll respondents. This issue is increasingly troubling for the president in swing states, where a majority of voters are pessimistic about economic performance. In those states critical to his campaign, Mr. Biden now leads President Trump only in Michigan.

As Mr. Biden’s messaging about strong economic performance flounders, Mr. Trump’s rhetoric is resonating. According to a CBS News poll from early March, 65 percent of voters rate the economy as good during Mr. Trump’s presidency, compared to 38 percent under Mr. Biden’s presidency.

More than half of respondents to a January 2024 poll by NBC say the former president would do a better job of dealing with the economy, compared to a third of respondents who say so for the current president.

Yet the American economy is set to outpace its peers this year, the International Monetary Fund said at its annual meeting at Washington last week. The IMF upgraded its forecast for America’s economic growth to 2.7 percent this year, 0.6 percentage points higher than it predicted in January. In contrast to the standout role the nation plays in driving global growth, the 20 countries that use the euro, the IMF predicts, will grow just 0.8 percent this year.

The IMF warned policymakers that inflation in America could get worse with a bloated budget. America’s annual inflation has ticked up in recent months after dropping from a June 2022 peak of 9.1 percent amid a surge in household and government spending. High government spending and debt levels could make the issue more difficult to solve.

A senior fellow at the Mises Institute, Alex Pollack reports in the Sun that the Federal Reserve is underwater by $121 billion in capital, which it shrugs off as a “deferred asset.” Congress has made matters worse by prohibiting the Fed from retaining profits to strengthen its capital position, instead running, Mr. Pollack writes, “an exceptionally risky balance sheet.”