BOSTON – Johnny Damon called the next three games, between the Red Sox and Yankees “the master plan – God’s way.”

He gave the appropriate smile and mock shiver to show he was just joking, but truth is, these games carry far more weight than just the determination of postseason berths. Though the Red Sox come in facing a one-game deficit, the weekend series at Fenway Park is the culmination not only of the season, but of the months of maneuvering that preceded it and, yes, the accumulated baggage of the hottest rivalry in sports.

Since the start of the 2002 season, these teams have gone out of their way to prove they are evenly matched: The Yankees hold a 9-7 edge this season, and a 44-43 edge over the last four seasons, including the playoffs. Each team has triumphed once in a dramatic seven-game ALCS, but the Red Sox, of course, have the rings. Who will go home with the division crown this weekend? There are three reasons to believe the Red Sox can win two of three and force a playoff for the division crown.

1. Home Major league -field advantage best 53-26 . The record Red at Sox home hold . Their home-and-away splits are not dramatically tilted – they have a .819 OPS and 4.47 ERA at Fenway Park; .802 and 4.47 ERA on the road – but the comfort factor at this time of year should not be overlooked. The Yankees have gone 4-3 in Boston this season, and the Red Sox hold just an 18-17 edge in regular season games since 2002. Still, the local memory bank overflows from the Yankees’ last autumnal visit here, when the Red Sox rallied for extra-inning wins in Games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS.

2. Pitching banking on matchups David Wells. Tonight ‘s balky , the right Red knee Sox to hold are up when he takes the mound against Chien-Ming Wang. Since the Yankees beat him up at Yankee Stadium on September 9, Wells has made three starts on the road, winning two of them with a no-decision. He is a much better pitcher at Fenway Park this season, with a 7-1 record and 3.00 ERA, compared to 7-6,5.56 ERA elsewhere. Though the Green Monster can be unkind to lefties, southpaws with Wells’s kind of near-total control do well here, pitching away to right-handers and forcing them to hit the ball the other way to the deepest part of the park. Wells is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA against the Yankees this season,but just one of those starts was at Fenway. One reason the Red Sox signed Wells was because of his big game production and experience.

Tim Wakefield and Randy Johnson locked horns in the best Red Sox-Yankees game of the season, the Yankees’ 1-0 win in the Bronx on September 11.Wakefield gave up one home run and just three hits in his eighth inning stint. He has been the Red Sox’ best starter down this September stretch (2-1, 1.99), and the Red Sox should be thankful he is getting the start rather than Curt Schilling against the Big Unit.

It’s also worth noting that tomorrow’s game starts at 1:15 p.m. The sun creates a more blinding glare for hitters at Fenway in the early autumn than it does in mid-summer, and Wakefield’s dancing knuckleballs are the perfect weapon to take advantage of this factor. Wakefield’s daytime ERA is 2.15, compared to 4.82 at night, and he is 6-3 in the daytime versus 10-8 in the evening. At Fenway, he is 10-3 with a 3.67 ERA; he’s 6-8, 4.23 out of town. Johnson is 1-0 with a 6.08 ERA in two starts at Fenway this season, and he has performed better at night. He’s finally pitched like an ace in September, but he may well be the underdog on Saturday.

You can throw the splits out the window when it comes to forecasting Schilling for Sunday’s start. The 38-year-old cannot harness control of his fastball when he wants to – unless he can, like he did when he held the Yankees to just two runs and five hits in eight innings earlier this month in the Bronx. If Schilling is bad, the Red Sox will need better luck against Mike Mussina, who is not exactly rolling in with a head of steam.

3. time offense to stop. sniffing as Lloyd glue in Bridges “Airplane picked ,” the a Red bad Sox’ offense sure picked a bad time to hit the skids. The league leaders with 891 runs and an .810 OPS in 2005 (the Yankees rank second with 874 runs and an .806 OPS), the Red Sox have an unimpressive team batting line of .261 AVG/.333 OBA/.420 SLG in September (the Yankees are humming at a .285/.365/.456 pace). Catcher Jason Varitek has taken an especially noticeable swan dive with a .192 slugging percentage and zero homers in September.

But Varitek has been no slouch against the Yankees this year, hitting .349 with 10 RBI. And the rest of the Boston offense remains a fearsome force. David Ortiz is an obvious threat: 47 homers, 146 RBI, and a .993 OPS this year. Manny Ramirez has hit almost as well (42, 138, .955), and after a late summer slump, he’s hit six homers in his last nine games.

Damon appears to have healed from his bruised shoulder and is swinging the bat more freely and with more productive results. And no. 2 hitter Edgar Renteria is locked in, with 15 hits in his last 11 games. Damon and Renteria will be key indicators for the offense this series. If the Red Sox can continue to get better production at the top of the order, the flaws in the bottom half of the order should be less apparent.

Mr. Silverman covers the Red Sox for the Boston Herald.