Savvy Brewers Assemble The Infield of the Future
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When the Milwaukee Brewers opened their season on April 3, the lineup included 22-year-old Prince Fielder at first base, 22-year-old Rickie Weeks at second base, and 23-year-old J.J. Hardy at shortstop. Meanwhile, 22-year-old third baseman Ryan Braun, the Brewers’ first-round selection last year out of the University of Miami, opened his season at High-A Brevard County.
Current third baseman Corey Koskie is signed through 2007, and the end of his contract should dovetail nicely with Braun’s being ready for major league duty. If that’s the case, the Brewers will be in the exceedingly rare – and enviable – position of having all their starting infielders under the age of 25.
Such an opportunity calls to mind another famous infield. From 1974 through 1981, the Los Angeles Dodgers boasted the same regular infield: Steve Garvey at first, Davey Lopes at second, Bill Russell at short, and Ron Cey at third. During those eight seasons, that quartet led the Dodgers to pennants in 1974, 1977, 1978, and 1981. In the winter of 1982, the Dodgers traded Lopes to the A’s to make way for Steve Sax. The following year, Garvey signed a much-ballyhooed free-agent contract with the Padres, and Cey was dealt to the Cubs. Russell, the last infielder standing, remained in Chavez Ravine until his retirement following the 1986 campaign. Still, for those eight seasons, they were all fixtures in the Dodger lineup, making them the longest-running infield in major league history.
And that brings us back to the Brewers. The early returns on the Milwaukee infield are quite promising. It may be premature to draw firm comparisons to the Dodger group, but such a rare confluence of youth, promise, and opportunity raises great possibilities for Milwaukee.
By 2008, when Koskie’s contract is up and Braun should be done marinating in the minors, the Brewers, barring the unexpected, will have all four young infielders in place.
For comparison’s sake, let’s take a look at the age and offensive production of the Dodger infield during their first full season together (1974) and set those figures alongside the 2008 ages of the Brewer infield and their projected levels of offensive production for that season. To measure offense, we’ll use Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), which measures, in runs, what a hitter contributes over and above what an emergency “replacement” talent (e.g., the waiver claim, the bench player, the minor league veteran, the prospect) can provide in a pinch..
As you can see in the accompanying chart, the Dodger infield, in their first season together, bettered their Milwaukee counterparts’ projections by more than 25 runs. However, they were also a cumulative seven years older than the Brewer infield. As a result, it’s safe to assume the Milwaukee hitters may have more pronounced growth ahead of them than the Dodger group did at that same juncture (note, especially, that Lopes in 1974 was already 29, typically the beginning of a player’s decline phase). Of course, those young Brewer infielders already have skills-aplenty.
Fielder is already one of the best young power hitters in the majors (he presently leads all rookies in home runs and total bases with eight and 77, respectively) after showing uniformly strong indicators throughout the minors despite being younger than his peer group at every stop. Weeks, the second overall pick of the 2003 draft, was generally regarded as the most gifted college hitter of that draft class, and his career in the minors did nothing to undermine the press clippings. So far this season, Weeks ranks sixth among National League second basemen in VORP and sports a healthy .371 on-base average. Hardy had some fits and starts during his rookie season in 2005, and has struggled with his discipline a bit at the plate this year, but his second half batting line of .308 AVG/.363 OBA/.503 SLG last season was a testament to his ability to adapt to major league pitching.
As for Braun, he’s still showing power in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, and most scouts agree that his sock from the right side will translate to the majors.
As for challenging the Dodgers’ historic infield, any number of things could shanghai Milwaukee’s hopes. As a small-market team, payroll constraints (self-imposed or otherwise) could hasten the departure of one or more of these players once they hit their high-salary years. Injuries could derail them, Braun’s development could run afoul of expectations, and there’s some speculation that Weeks and/or Braun could eventually be moved to the outfield.
Still, despite all the caveats, the rudiments of a legendary infield are there. If things go the way of the Brewers and these four gifted young players, they could eclipse the Dodgers’ record for tenure and, in the process, surpass them in terms of quality, as well.
Mr. Perry is a regular writer for BaseballProspectus.com. Fore more state-of-the-art commentary, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.