NFL MIDSEASON REPORTS

NFC South

The New Orleans Saints have already won more games than they did all of last year, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have already lost more games than they did all of last year. The upside-down standings make the NFC South the most surprising division at the halfway point of the NFL season.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6–2)

A great rookie has sparked the Saints’ offense, but it’s not the rookie everyone expected. No. 2 overall pick Reggie Bush has been a failure as a runner (an anemic 2.6 yards a carry) and just okay as a receiver and returner, but seventh-round pick Marques Colston is a Rookie of the Year candidate. Colston and Joe Horn might be the best pair of receivers in the NFC, and quarterback Drew Brees delivers the ball accurately, which fans in New Orleans rarely saw from Aaron Brooks last year.

It sounds crazy to suggest that a serious knee injury could improve a running back, but Deuce McAllister looks like a more disciplined runner after last year’s torn ACL cost him some of his cutting ability. In the past McAllister had a tendency to dance around behind the line of scrimmage and try to turn everything into a big play. Now he takes the handoff and runs straight ahead. Bush could learn a lot from watching him.

Coach Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Gary Gibbs were both assistants in Dallas last year, and they brought starting outside linebackers Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle with them to New Orleans and both have made a major impact on an improved defense. However, the Saints’ cornerbacks are slow, and opposing wide receivers often have big games against them. That could spell trouble for the Saints in the playoffs, but in New Orleans, any postseason accomplishments would be gravy — the fans are just happy that the Saints are back.

ATLANTA FALCONS (5–3)

Which Michael Vick is the real one? The quarterback who completed 19 of 27 passes for 291 yards and no turnovers against Cincinnati in Week 8? Or the one who completed 17 of 32 passes for 163 yards and three turnovers against Detroit in Week 9? If the Falcons consistently get the Week 8 version of Vick, they can play deep into the postseason. If they get the other one, they’ll miss the playoffs.

Falcons have two good running backs in veteran Warrick Dunn, who has 688 rushing yards this season, and speedy rookie Jerious Norwood, who averages an incredible 6.8 yards a carry. And, of course, Vick can run a little himself — he’s on pace to finish the season with more than 1,000 rushing yards.

On defense, John Abraham has shown both why the Falcons thought he was worth the first-round draft pick they gave up to acquire him and why the Jets were willing to trade him to Atlanta: When he plays, he plays very well, with three sacks and three forced fumbles, but he has played only two games this season because of groin injuries. The Falcons’ front seven, which is built mostly to rush opposing quarterbacks, has trouble stopping the run.

Questions on defense and with Vick make the Falcons a borderline playoff team, but not a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (4–4)

After missing the first two games of the season with hamstring injuries, wide receiver Steve Smith has returned to his position as one of the best offensive players in the NFL, and defensive end Julius Peppers is one of the best defensive players in the NFL. But problems elsewhere have kept the Panthers at .500.

If the Panthers are going to become a playoff-caliber team over the second half of the season, they need to keep rookie running back DeAngelo Williams healthy and get him more involved in the offense. Carolina raised some eyebrows by choosing Williams in the first round of this year’s draft even though it already had DeShaun Foster in place, but it was the right move: Williams has missed three games because of an ankle injury, but when healthy he is clearly a better option than Foster. Williams averages 5.3 yards a carry; Foster averages 3.8 yards a carry.

Peppers’s ability to rush the quarterback (he has eight sacks) is one of the few bright spots for Carolina’s pass defense that gives up too many big plays. Special teams are also a problem. John Kasey is a good kicker, but the return game is weak. Williams has been as disappointing on kickoff returns as he has been impressive at running back, and punt returner Chris Gamble averages just 5.3 yards a runback. Those problems, the 0–2 hole Carolina dug without Smith, and the tough remaining schedule give the Panthers an uphill climb toward the playoffs.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2–6)

Tampa Bay’s vaunted defense is getting old. Linebacker Derrick Brooks, 33, is noticeably slower, especially in pass coverage where opposing running backs run short routes over the middle and Brooks can’t keep up. Defensive end Simeon Rice,32,has only two sacks after recording 11 or more in each of the last five years. The one veteran who still looks fresh is cornerback Ronde Barber, 31, but he is the only playmaker in the secondary.

Quarterback Chris Simms is out for the year with a ruptured spleen but that is far from the only problem on offense. Receivers Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton haven’t done much to help the development of Simms’s replacement, rookie Bruce Gradkowski. Running back Cadillac Williams has been a big disappointment, as five different teams have held him to less than 50 yards and less than 3.5 yards a carry. Fullback MikeAlstott,32,has declined even more than his defensive counterparts.

This team could easily be winless. A 62-yard last-second field goal gave Tampa Bay a win over Philadelphia, and a very questionable personal foul penalty allowed the Bucs to stay alive to beat Cincinnati. About the only thing Tampa Bay can hope for in the second half of the season is to determine whether Gradkowski is the quarterback of the future.

Projected order of finish: New Orleans (10–6), Atlanta (9–7,wild card), Carolina (8–8), Tampa Bay (6–10)

Mr. Smith is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.