A few days before the season began, I had lunch with a hoops junkie pal of mine, and as we ran down our expectations in each division I told him that I expected Orlando to pass Miami and win the Southeast Division.

In response, he gave me a withering look that was equal parts condescension and disbelief. I wanted to remind him that I’d seen that look before, most notably when I told him Detroit was going to beat the Lakers in the finals two years ago, but instead I offered a bet, and he accepted.

I am tempted to call him and demand an early payment. Orlando leads the division at 7–3 heading into last night’s action and has yet to hit its stride while Miami is 4–5 and with Shaquille O’Neal now out for four to six weeks, the Heat are sinking quickly. But I’m going to hold off for now, while Miami is in trouble, Orlando has some work to do before I’m convinced that they are on the fast track to elite status.

In case losing to the Knicks by 24 at the American Airlines Arena on Friday didn’t put too fine a point on it, the Heat is in a heap of trouble. It isn’t just that losing Shaq for six weeks — and yes, based on O’Neal’s track record for slow healing and the fact that he’s a 325 pound man nearing his 35th birthday, it’s reasonable to assume the outside number on recovery time — it’s that they weren’t very good with him.

O’Neal was present for four games and the results weren’t pretty. He averaged 14.3 points a game on a Steve Francis-like .453 field goal percentage. Shaq’s career averages 26.3 and 57.9%; last season he managed 20 ppg on 60% from the field. Four games is far too small a sample size to draw any conclusions but this may be that ugly moment when an all time great’s decline phase becomes a freefall. If it is, then the Heat’s fall from championship grace may have a thud that rivals that of this year’s Pittsburgh Steelers.

Heat apologists have been quick to point out that this is the plan. Have Shaq rested for the stretch run, make a final charge to make the bottom half of the playoff bracket and use their veteran experience and championship moxie in a tenacious defense of their crown. The problem with that plan is those attributes will have to help the Heat win a few games before Martin Luther King Day. For the scenario to work, D-Wade will have to raise his game to the level of phase one Michael Jordan for this scenario to work — i.e., when no. 23 lead Granville Waiters, Brad Sellers, and a bunch of other nobodies into the playoffs. Most of the Heat’s supporting cast, particularly guards Gary Payton and Jason Williams and forward Antoine Walker are on the wrong side of 30 and in their decline phases (and in Payton’s case that’s phrasing it very, very gently).

When a team gets blown out of its building by 42 on opening night, its cause for concern, and the Heat have been routed at home three times in the first 19 days of the season and only three of their nine opponents have a winning record. It’s time for reassessment. I thought the Heat would fall out of the Eastern Conference elite this season; now I think they’re going to tumble out of the playoff picture altogether.

I’m not ready to gloat over my Orlando prediction yet because their 7–3 record is deceptive. The Magic’s early season schedule has been softer than the Heat’s. Orlando has yet to play a team with a winning record, and their most challenging road trip was a three game northerly run to Indiana, Minnesota, and Boston. Despite this easy slate, the Magic have not put up impressive numbers. They are only 11th in Offensive Efficiency, which measures points per 100 possessions, at 103.1, and eighth in Defensive Efficiency at 99.9. While Knicks fans might dance in the street if their team matched that feat (at present Zeke’s boys are 14th and 22nd), those are not the credentials an elite team should boast after 10 easy games.

The hype on the Magic has focused on the continued improvement of power forward/center Dwight Howard, a superb player who deserves such ink as he’s averaging 15.5 points and 13.2 boards a game, but the real reason Orlando is winning is Grant Hill. The player for whom the phrase oft-injured is a vast understatement leads the Magic with 16.1 points per game on 54.9% shooting. His worst shooting performance of the season, a 6-for-15 stinker at Indiana, was not coincidentally a double-digit loss for the Magic.

Looking at the Magic’s team metrics, the task ahead couldn’t be clearer. The team is among the leaders in most of the key offensive categories, but dead last in turnover rate, coughing up the ball on a staggering 30.2% of their possessions. That seems like it may be a fluke, especially since point guard Jameer Nelson is committing nearly four turnovers a game, twice his career average. On defense they need to stop fouling so often as they are near the bottom of the league in free throws allowed per shot attempt, and coach Brian Hill is already shuffling the backcourt rotation in an attempt to fix those problems.

The Magic can fine tune with another week of beatable opponents before they head west for their first true test of the season, a road trip that includes games against the Jazz and Clippers.

If they return from that trip unscathed then a certain friend of mine is going to get his withering gaze returned in full.

mjohnson@nysun.com