NFL MIDSEASON REPORTS

AFC South

The rest of the NFL is known for rapid change, but the AFC South seems to be a surprise-free zone. One Houston win separates these four teams from the exact same records they had after eight games of 2005.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8–0)

Close victories on the road in both Denver and New England have NFL analysts once again talking about a possible undefeated season for the Colts. But a closer look shows that while the record is the same, the Colts are nowhere near as good as they were a year ago.

The problem isn’t the offense, which is once again the best in the league by leaps and bounds. Peyton Manning would be MVP by acclamation if the season ended today, and the Colts don’t seem to miss running back Edgerrin James at all. Other coaches may hurt their teams by sticking with struggling veterans, but each week Tony Dungy uses more of Joseph Addai (4.7 yds/carry) and less of Dominic Rhodes (3.2 yds/carry).

But last year’s Colts were different from previous versions because they combined superior offense with an above-average defense. This year, those defensive improvements have disintegrated, particularly against the run.

The Colts have the lowest margin of victory of any team to ever start 8–0, and they are on pace to allow 346 points. The Colts are giving up 5.25 yards a carry on the ground, and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete more than 64% of their passes. All three of those numbers would be the worst of any conference champion in NFL history, and by a good margin.

Playmaking safety Bob Sanders finally returned this week from an injury that cost him most of the season, which should help. But to make the Colts’ defense above-average again, Sanders would have to be a combination of Brian Urlacher and Champ Bailey.

Without a defensive turnaround, the Colts are destined to lose in the regular season and disappoint again in the playoffs, and the press will once again blame Manning for the failures of his teammates.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (5–3)

Like last year, the Jaguars are built around defense and the running game, and both elements have actually improved. The running game can now mix two backs with different styles, veteran Fred Taylor and shifty rookie Maurice Jones-Drew. And the Jaguars rank as the top pass defense in the league by our measures, combining a good pass rush with excellent (though occasionally in consistent) coverage from cornerbacks Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams.

The Jaguars have so far been able to weather a number of important defen sive injuries. Mathis and tackle John Henderson have played despite ham string troubles. Middle linebacker Mike Peterson is out for the year, but tackle Marcus Stroud is supposed to return from an ankle injury when the Jaguars play the Giants next Monday night.

The biggest question in Jacksonville is at the quarterback position. An ankle injury gave head coach Jack Del Rio an excuse to sit starting quarterback By ron Leftwich and play the more mobile backup, David Garrard. Leftwich is once again healthy, but Garrard will stay as the starter because he matches Del Rio’s preference for running a more conservative offense.

With a harder schedule than last year, the Jaguars won’t sail right into the postseason. But if current trends in the AFC continue, despite the quarterback controversy, Jacksonville will travel to Kansas City on the final day of the season with a wild card on the line.

HOUSTON TEXANS (2-6)

As expected, new head coach Gary Kubiak has improved the Houston offense. The only surprise is that the improvement comes from the passing game, not the running game.

It turns out that the Denver zoneblocking system doesn’t work without a good offensive line, and various Houston running backs average just 3.6 yards a carry. But Kubiak has quarterback David Carr throwing more short, high-percentage passes, and he is completing those passes more than 70% of the time. After an off-year in 2005, wide receiver Andre Johnson leads the league in both receptions and yards.

Unfortunately, this offense has to keep up with the worst defense in the league. Defensive end Mario Williams, the no. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, has gradually improved as a pass rusher and is even more effective against the run. Second-round linebacker DeMeco Ryans is also playing well, but the rest of the front seven is filled with holes. Behind them is an awful secondary; even cornerback Dunta Robinson, who was leaps and bounds better than his teammates last year, is now struggling.

TENNESSEE TITANS (2–6)

The Titans’ rebuilding project continues to move at the speed of molasses, and they are battling Arizona and Oakland for the not so coveted title of worst team in football. To the surprise of nobody, the decision to sign free agent veteran Kerry Collins and make him the starter without the benefit of training camp proved to be a complete disaster. Rookie Vince Young took over in Week 4, and is clearly both talented and nowhere near ready to start in the NFL.

Cornerback Pac-Man Jones could be one of the league’s best defenders if he could control himself off the field. Opposing quarterbacks generally avoid whichever receiver Jones is covering, and when the Titans suspended him for a week because of an incident at a local nightclub, the result was a 37–7 drubbing by the Jaguars. Otherwise, veteran linebacker Keith Bulluck is still good, free agent safety Chris Hope has been excellent, and pretty much everybody else is awful.

The Titans have the hardest remaining schedule in the league, so at this point, the only question is who gets the ax at the end of the year: general manager Floyd Reese, who assembled all this mediocre talent, or head coach Jeff Fisher and his staff, who haven’t been able to coach ‘em up.

Projected order of finish: Indianapolis (13–3), Jacksonville (10–6), Houston (5–11), Tennessee (3–13).

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.