Last year, 10 of the top 11 teams in the NFL played in the AFC (Philadelphia being the exception). None of the top AFC teams seem likely to collapse – unless we consider Pittsburgh winning less than 15 games a collapse – while a number of other teams in the conference filled important holes during the off-season. Nearly every team has legitimate playoff hopes, making this year’s AFC nearly impossible to predict. But teams from the West and East have an extra hurdle: a schedule that has these two strong divisions playing each other as well as the two strongest divisions in the NFC.

AFC EAST

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

PREDICTION: 11-5 (First)

YOU KNOW: The two-time defending champions are the most balanced team in the NFL, above average in every aspect of the game except for kick and punt coverage. But three defensive stalwarts are now gone: Pro Bowl cornerback Ty Law signed with the Jets, linebacker Ted Johnson retired, and linebacker Tedy Bruschi will take the year off after suffering a mild stroke in February.

YOU DON’T KNOW: New England is known as a haven for veterans, and the numerous free agents signed to fill the defensive holes (ex-Arizona cornerback Duane Starks, ex-Seattle linebacker Chad Brown) won’t change that. But most of the important Patriots are just entering their primes. On offense, quarterback Tom Brady is only 28, just a bit older than starting wideouts Deion Branch (26) and David Givens (25). The three starters on the defensive line are all first-round picks under the age of 27, and only one starting offensive lineman is older than 27.

X-FACTOR: Middle linebacker Monty Beisel was awful against the run in Kansas City and now must help replace Bruschi and Johnson.

NEW YORK JETS

PREDICTION: 10-6 (Wild Card)

YOU KNOW: Gang Green’s off-season was a mix of high-profile arrivals and departures. Laveranues Coles re turned to give Chad Pennington back his favorite receiver; Mike Nugent is only the second kicker drafted above the third round since 1993; Pro Bowl cornerback Ty Law brings his three Super Bowl rings to the Meadowlands. But Law’s arrival can’t cover holes at strong safety and right corner, and nose tackle Jason Ferguson signed with Dallas, leaving a gaping hole in the middle of the run defense.

YOU DON’T KNOW: Jets fans are celebrating the departure of “conservative” offensive coordinator Paul Hackett and expect a wide open offense under replacement Mike Heimerdinger. But a study of offensive game pace in Pro Football Prospectus 2005shows that only two offenses have ranked among the NFL’s six slowest for five straight seasons: One is New York, and the other is Tennessee under offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger.

X-FACTOR: Right tackle Adrian Jones. The last pick of 2004’s fourth round didn’t take a regular season snap as a rookie. Will he develop as the Jets hope, or become the vulnerable weakness on an otherwise solid offensive line?

BUFFALO BILLS

PREDICTION: 8-8 (Third)

YOU KNOW: The 2004 Bills had the best defense in football, but failed to make the playoffs when their impotent offense couldn’t score on the Pittsburgh second stringers in the season’s final week. In the off-season, Buffalo tossed quarterback Drew Bledsoe over board and handed the keys to 2004 first round pick J.P. Losman, who has less than a dozen snaps of NFL experience. Losman has had an abysmal preseason, but at least he shares a backfield with promising second-year back Willis McGahee, who ran for 1128 yards as a rookie.

YOU DON’T KNOW: Thanks to the defense and special teams, the Bills’ offense started their average drive on the 36-yard line, two yards better than any other team. Losman’s inexperience means that Buffalo is depending on another year of league-leading defense, but historically defense is less consistent from year to year than offense is.

X-FACTOR: The offensive line. Left tackle Jonas Jennings left for San Francisco in free agency, and the line he leaves behind is a mixed bag of injury-plagued veterans and disappointing draft picks. A poor line will stunt the growth of both Losman and McGahee.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

PREDICTION: 5-11 (Fourth)

YOU KNOW: The Miami offense is complete mess, starting with a porous offensive line that can’t clear holes for the run or stop a pass. seems have given up on quarterback A.J. Feeley and the alternative is Gus Frerotte, a 34-year-old veteran who hasn’t had 100 at tempts in a season since 2000.

YOU DON’T KNOW: It didn’t win many games, but the Miami defense was still pretty good in 2004, finishing ninth in DVOA. This year, however, the Dolphins will be learning a new 3-4 scheme and could have problems. Though they added free agent talent on the line (defensive end Kevin Carter, defensive tackle Keith Traylor) there are holes in the secondary where cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Sammy Knight once stood. Meanwhile, Surtain’s erstwhile replacement, Will Poole, is out for the year with an ACL tear.

X-FACTOR: Ricky Williams’s production dropped by 30 yards a game in 2003 after being overused in 2002. Will a year off reverse the effects?

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE RAVENS

PREDICTION: 10-6 (First)

YOU KNOW: The Ravens play defense. Since 1999, Baltimore has never ranked below eighth in defensive DVOA. They’ve had the league’s top defense three times and were second behind Buffalo in 2004. Expect the same this season, with departed free agent cornerback Gary Baxter seamlessly replaced by former Titans Pro Bowler Samari Rolle.

YOU DON’T KNOW: Despite his poor reputation, quarterback Kyle Boller took a big step forward in 2004 and was a league-average passer by year’s end. Boller was near the bottom of the league in yards per pass, but those numbers were biased by a difficult schedule, and only San Diego and Indianapolis threw fewer interceptions than Baltimore (11). Boller also improved over the course of the year, converting only 26% of third down opportunities before Baltimore’s bye week, but 36% of third downs in the 11 games afterward.

X-FACTOR: Can running back Jamal Lewis return to the glory days of 2003, when he ran for 2066 yards, or will a bad ankle sprain from 2004 and a summer spent in prison take their toll?

CINCINNATI BENGALS

PREDICTION: 10-6 (Wild Card)

YOU KNOW: The Bengals have a young, balanced offense led by rapidly improving quarterback Carson Palmer, flamboyant receiver Chad Johnson, and steady running back Rudi Johnson. Palmer’s average yards per pass saw a 50% spike in his final four games before a sprained knee in Week 14 ended his season. Cincinnati’s offensive numbers are even more impressive because they came against the most difficult schedule of opposing defenses in the league.

YOU DON’T KNOW: Cincinnati’s defense featured one of the NFL’s better secondaries last season, with strong play from veterans Deltha O’Neal and Tory James alongside rookies Keiwan Ratliff and Madieu Williams. According to DVOA, the Bengals were fourth in the NFL at stopping the opposition’s top receiver and sixth at stopping the number two receiver. On the other hand, Cincinnati was one of the weakest teams against passes to tight ends or running backs, and did an awful job stopping the run.

X-FACTOR: Can rookie linebackers (and ex-Georgia teammates) David Pollack and Odell Thurman quickly fill the gaping holes in the front seven that allowed 129 yards per game of rushing to fly by last season?

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

PREDICTION: 9-17 (Third)

YOU KNOW: Pittsburgh was just the fourth team to post a 15-1 record since the NFL went to a 16- game season in 1978. Rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger put up one of the greatest rookie campaigns ever, going 13-0 in regular season starts while completing two-thirds of his passes. Later in the season, however, teams discovered they could pressure the rookie with a blitz, and his sacks and interceptions rose significantly in the season’s last two months. Roethlisberger threw five interceptions in two playoff games, which should worry the Steelers in 2005.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The difference maker for the 2004 Steelers was the defense, particularly against the pass. Pittsburgh allowed opponents to complete just 55.6% of their passes, ranking second behind Buffalo. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau’s zone blitz schemes, which sowed confusion in the minds of opposing quarterbacks, were in large part responsible.

X-FACTOR: Running back Willie Parker. Last year he ran just 32 times, but he’ll get plenty of carries this year as veterans Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis fight injuries.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

PREDICTION: 3-13 (Fourth)

YOU KNOW: The Butch Davis debacle ended last year when the Browns imploded and lost nine straight games. This year, the team is being torn down and rebuilt anew by new head coach Romeo Crennel, formerly defensive coordinator for the Super Bowl champion Patriots, and new GM Phil Savage, who helped build the Baltimore Ravens. There’s hope in the long term, but pain in the short term.

YOU DON’T KNOW: There really isn’t anything you don’t know. This team is very, very bad, particularly when it comes to the run defense, which allowed a league-worst 144.6 yards a game last season.

X-FACTOR: The fans. How long before they are screaming for veteran quarterback Trent Dilfer to be replaced by local (Akron) product and 2005 third-rounder Charlie Frye?

AFC SOUTH

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

PREDICTION: 13-3 (First)

YOU KNOW: The Colts score a lot. Peyton Manning set all-time marks for passing touchdowns and NFL passing rating in 2004. Reggie Wayne led NFL receivers in total value (DPAR), while Brandon Stokley led NFL receivers in value per play (DVOA). Marvin Har rison, despite age-related decline, is still one of the top receivers in the league as well. Edgerrin James finally had a season to match the big numbers he put up before a 2001 ACL injury. The Colts’ schedule is even easier than Houston’s because they don’t have to play themselves twice.

YOU DON’T KNOW: According to DVOA, the Colts’ defense has improved every year since 2001 and was above-average by the end of last season. The problem is that the defense is designed to play with a lead, with the smaller, quicker defenders racking up sacks and interceptions against an opponent forced to pass. In the playoffs, the Colts will inevitably run into a team – not necessarily the Patriots – that can contain Manning, keeping the game close so they can run the ball against Indy’s vulnerable front seven.

X-FACTOR: Will defensive tackle Corey Simon, who escaped from Philadelphia last week, finally strengthen the middle of the defense?

HOUSTON TEXANS

PREDICTION: 9-7 (Second)

YOU KNOW: Wise men say a successful football team is built from the lines out, but Houston hasn’t had much luck in that department. Over the last three years, David Carr and the other Texans quarterbacks have been sacked 76, 35, and 50 times. Over on the defensive side, the Texans finished last in the NFL with only 24 sacks and were 22nd in with 4.4 yards allowed per run.

YOU DON’T KNOW: While Carr and receiver Andre Johnson get most of the press, the Texans to watch in 2005 are running back Domanick Davis and receiver Derick Armstrong. Davis struggled with injuries in the first half of 2004, gaining just 2.9 yards per carry with three touchdowns, but came on strong with 4.5 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns over the last nine games. Ex-CFLer Armstrong caught 74% of the passes thrown his way in 2004, more than any receiver except Pittsburgh’s Hines Ward (minimum 10 passes).

X-FACTOR: An easy schedule, featuring a cupcake tour through the NFC West and two games each with overrated Jacksonville and rebuilding Tennessee.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

PREDICTION: 6-10 (Third)

YOU KNOW: Quarterback Byron Leftwich showed veteran poise in just his second year as the starter. Pro Bowl tackles Marcus Stroud and John Henderson lead a strong young defense – stronger than the numbers say, considering that they play in an offense-friendly division.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The conventional wisdom says that Jacksonville’s offense will leap forward with a new system to fit Leftwich’s strengths, but there is no real reason to believe this. Veteran Running back Fred Taylor was awful last year on third down and in the red zone; he is breaking down due to age and the Jaguars have no faith in his backups. The starting receivers are Jimmy Smith, likely to decline at age 36, and Reggie Williams, who caught only half of the balls thrown to him as a rookie and couldn’t even average 10 yards a catch. The tight ends are a bunch of no-names.

X-FACTOR: Rookie Matt Jones will be the slot receiver even though he was a college quarterback and never played wideout before training camp.

TENNESSEE TITANS

PREDICTION: 6-10 (Fourth)

YOU KNOW: For the second straight off-season, the salary cap forced the Titans to cut many of their best veterans, including receiver Derrick Mason, cornerback Samari Rolle, and defensive end Kevin Carter. All those cuts mean a lack of depth, which became obvious when the Titans were demolished by injuries in 2004. The most important injured Titan was quarterback (and 2003 co-MVP) Steve McNair, who missed half of last season with a bruised sternum and returns to lead a team that is rebuilding instead of contending for a Super Bowl ring.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The Tennessee defense was actually pretty good for most of last year before all the injuries took their toll. The Titans allowed 5.9 net yards per pass in their first 10 games, but 8.3 net yards per pass in the last six. By that point, the team was left with just four defenders who had also started the season opener, and the salary cap means only one of those players remains in 2005: linebacker Keith Bulluck.

X-FACTOR: The Titans took three wide receivers in the third and fourth rounds of the 2005 draft, and at least one of them needs to step up and play a big role in the passing game.

AFC WEST

DENVER BRONCOS

PREDICTION: 11-5 (First)

YOU KNOW: The usually conservative Broncos made some controversial off-season decisions, in cluding signing Jerry Rice (who retired), drafting Maurice Clarett (who was cut), and trading for several former Cleveland Browns defensive linemen. Despite the changes, the Broncos are still built around their offensive line, Jake Plummer’s play-action passing, and a defense that ranked fifth in DVOA before turning into a pumpkin against the Colts in the playoffs.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The hype about the offensive line is true: the Broncos finished in the Top 10 in Adjusted Line Yards in each of the last three seasons, allowing the team to plug in average running backs and get awesome results. Champ Bailey gets the hype, but Denver’s real defensive strength is preventing tight ends and running backs from catching passes (second in the NFL in DVOA in both categories). That’s an important asset when both Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez appear on the schedule twice.

X-FACTOR: The altitude. After back-toback playoff drubbings in Indianapolis, the Broncos must try to earn home games in the postseason. Thin, icy mountain air can be a 12th defender against Peyton Manning.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

PREDICTION: 9-7 (Second)

YOU KNOW: It’s probably the last go around for Dick Vermeil, who has assembled an aging Wild Bunch for one more playoff push. Veteran free agents Patrick Surtain, Sammy Knight, and Kendrell Bell will improve an awful defense, but seven 30- something offensive starters are beginning to feel their age, including linemen Willie Roaf and Will Shields, who spent the off-season nursing chronic injuries.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The Chiefs tackled 64 ballcarriers in the backfield last year, a respectable total, and finished 15th in the league in Adjusted Line Yards on defense (3.61 yards per rush). But big plays were a big problem, as the team gave up 22 receptions of 40 or more yards and 13 runs of more than 20 yards.

X-FACTOR: Tony Gonzalez. Most tight ends have taken too much punishment by age 29; great players like Mark Bavaro and Ben Coates were too beaten up by the time they reached Gonzalez’s age to stay in the lineup. Gonzo is the youngest of the offensive graybeards, but he’s the most important and the most likely to suddenly decline.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

PREDICTION: 9-7 (Third)

YOU KNOW: Last year’s surprise team returns with a healthier LaDainian Tomlinson, a more confident Drew Brees, and a schedule full of teams who will no longer be taken by surprise. Controversial no. 1 picks Shawne Merriman (the holdout) and Luis Castillo (the repentant steroid user) upgrade a defense that finished 11th in the NFL in DVOA last year. Antonio Gates set a record for touchdown catches for a tight end last season with 13. But will his long holdout stunt his growth in the Chargers’ system?

YOU DON’T KNOW: Marty Schottenheimer ran a light camp by his rigorous standards: he cut back on two-a-day practices and full-pad drills in the hope of keeping his troops healthy and fresh. Tomlinson, who battled a groin injury last year, should benefit from the rest: his DPAR of 42.2 was second-best in the league among running backs in 2003, but dropped to 14.0 (23rd) because of injuries and overuse.

X-FACTOR: Nate Kaeding. He missed a game-tying playoff field goal and showed lingering signs of the yips in the preseason, missing some easy opportunities. He’s inconsistent on kickoffs, too: the Chargers ranked last in the league in kickoff coverage. Young kickers can be heartbreakers.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

PREDICTION: 5-11 (Fourth)

YOU KNOW: Randy Moss is a classic Raider, boasting of his pot-smoking exploits to Bryant Gumbel while running fly patterns in Norv Turner’s vertical offense. Moss will get all of the attention, but new running back LaMont Jordan (formerly Curtis Martin’s backup) will do the dirty work that makes the Raiders’ offense tick. Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is under the gun to build an effective defense out of underachieving vets like Warren Sapp and unprepared rookies like cornerback Stanford Routt.

YOU DON’T KNOW: Turner’s career head coaching record is 54-70. He’s renowned as an innovative offensive coordinator, but only one of his offenses has finished in the Top 10 in DVOA since 1998. As a head coach, he’s lost more than a quarter of the games that his teams were leading heading into the fourth quarter, one of the worst records in history.

X-FACTOR: Turner’s “boys will be boys” coaching philosophy. Take the free-spirited Bay Area, add off-the-field headaches like Moss and Sapp, combine with a lax coach, then stir. That’s not a Super Bowl recipe, it’s the anarchist’s cookbook.

NFC EAST

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

PREDICTION: 13-3 (First)

YOU KNOW: As long as the Eagles can keep Donovan McNabb healthy and put the Terrell Owens distraction behind them, they’re the favorites to repeat as NFC champions.

YOU DON’T KNOW: On both sides of the ball, the Eagles were better on first and second downs than they were on third down last year. That’s a very good sign. Teams that are worse on third down than they are on first and second usually see improvement on third down the following year, which means the Eagles can expect more extended drives on offense and more situations in which they force their opponents to punt. That means the conference’s best team should be even better.

X-FACTOR: With running back Correll Buckhalter out for the year yet again, the Eagles need to find a big up-the-gut runner who can diversify the offense, give small-sized starter Brian Westbrook a breather, and get tough yards on third-and-short.

DALLAS COWBOYS

2005 PREDICTION: 11-5 (Wild Card)

YOU KNOW: Drew Bledsoe reunites with Bill Parcells, the coach who took him to the Super Bowl nine years ago in New England. The question is whether a 33-year-old quarterback who has always struggled to avoid the pass rush will be able to stay upright. If Parcells’s blocking schemes work as well as they did in 1994, when Bledsoe was sacked 22 times in 691 attempts, Bledsoe should have a good season. If he’s as statuesque in the pocket as he was last year, when he was sacked 37 times in 450 attempts, the Cowboys’ offense will be in trouble.

YOU DON’T KNOW: Julius Jones gained 819 yards last year despite playing only half the season. But he doesn’t consistently grind out yards up the middle the way Parcells likes his backs to run. Despite their improvement on defense under the new regime, the Cowboys still allowed over 220 yards a game through the air.

X-FACTOR: Rookie DeMarcus Ware is a great athlete who has had a spectacular preseason and looks like a perfect fit as an outside linebacker in the new 3-4 defense. But Ware played college ball at Troy State, where he faced blockers from schools like Florida Atlantic and Utah State.

NEW YORK GIANTS

PREDICTION: 7-9 (Third) YOU KNOW: Eli Manning needs to develop into the great quarterback the Giants thought they selected when they traded a bounty of picks to nab him in 2004. Despite trading away this year’s first-round pick as part of the deal to get Manning, the Giants are counting on contributions from three rookies: Cornerback Corey Webster, who is expected to play a lot against teams that use three-receiver sets, defensive end Justin Tuck, who will come in as a situational pass rusher, and running back Brandon Jacobs, who will be the new Ron Dayne.

YOU DON’T KNOW: Tiki Barber was a dependable receiver last year, catching 52 passes for 578 yards, but he was clearly more in sync with Kurt Warner than he was with Manning. Barber averaged four catches for 51 yards in the nine games Warner started, but only two catches for 16 yards in seven games with Manning.

X-FACTOR: Michael Strahan has been the best defensive end in the league for a decade. But he’s 34 and coming off a torn pectoral muscle. If he’s healthy and refreshed – as he’s looked in the preseason – the Giants will be in good shape on the defensive line.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

PREDICTION: 5-11 (Fourth)

YOU KNOW: Joe Gibbs’s return was disappointing because his offense couldn’t sustain drives. Quarterback Patrick Ramsey was bad last year, and Mark Brunell was worse, so Washington traded up into the first round to draft yet another quarterback, Auburn’s Jason Campbell. The problems on offense often overshadowed one of the NFL’s best defenses, which lost two of its main contributors in free agency: Middle linebacker Antonio Pierce is now a Giant, and cornerback Fred Smoot is a Viking.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The Redskins were 23rd in Adjusted Line Yards (please see statistical explanations below) when running the ball up the middle last year, but they should be much improved in that category. This off-season they signed free-agent center Casey Rabach from the Ravens, who were fifth in the league in Adjusted Line Yards up the middle last season.

X-FACTOR: Running back Clinton Portis. For a young back, his collapse from 5.3 to 3.8 yards per carry last season was unprecedented in league history. Can the arrival of Rabach and the return of tackle Jon Jansen from injury help him to be productive again? He’ll have to be considering the problems at quarterback.

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

PREDICTION: 10-6 (First)

YOU KNOW: Randy Moss is gone, the team is under new ownership, and GM Rob Brzezinski brought in a slew of free agents to shore up the defense, including safety Darren Sharper and cornerback Fred Smoot. It was all part of a bizarre off-season that introduced us to the Whizzinator and the perils of purloining Super Bowl tickets. Luckily, Daunte Culpepper still has a cannon on his shoulder and the legs to find enough space to use it.

YOU DON’T KNOW: Nate Burleson is projected as a fine replacement for Moss, but his DVOA was much better as Moss’s second fiddle than in it was when Moss was hurt. Onterrio Smith’s oneyear drug suspension shouldn’t be laughed off; the Vikings are deep at running back, but Smith’s receiving DPAR of 13.5 was best on the team. Center Matt Birk will miss the season with a hip injury; replacement Cory Withrow is susceptible to the blitz and the bull rush.

X-FACTOR: Coach Mike Tice. He’s breaking in a new offensive coordinator (Steve Loney) while working for new ownership and trying to put the Super Bowl ticket scandal behind him. He needs a strong start to stay in control of the team.

DETROIT LIONS

PREDICTION: 7-9 (Second)

YOU KNOW: Steve Mariucci and quarterback Joey Harrington are out of excuses, so the talent-laden offense must be more productive this season. Harrington has been one of the league’s worst starters, but backup Jeff Garcia’s broken leg means the end of any controversy, and big-time receivers Charles Rogers and Roy Williams will help. Second-year running back Kevin Jones will bring balance to the offensive attack.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The Lions finished 10th in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards in 2004, fifth in 2003. They are strong up the middle, thanks to tackles Shaun Rogers and Dan Wilkinson, but they lack a quality second cornerback to team with Dre’ Bly. If veteran Fernando Bryant can bounce back from an ankle injury, the Lions should allow far fewer than the 321 offensive points they allowed last season.

X-FACTOR: Return specialist Eddie Drummond’s comeback from a shoulder injury. Drummond returned two kicks and two punts for touchdowns last season. His game-changing ability can take pressure off the offense.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

PREDICTION: 6-10 (Third)

YOU KNOW: Brett Favre is back and more focused than he has been in previous seasons. Primary weapons Ahman Green and Javon Walker still make the Packers a formidable foe. But the team must overcome the free-agent losses of Pro Bowlers Mike Wahle, Marco Rivera, and Darren Sharper, all the while adjusting to their third defensive coordinator in three years.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The loss of Sharper could be painful: the Packers ranked last in the league in DVOA against opposing tight ends, 29th against slot receivers. The team did little to improve depth in the secondary, signing journeyman Earl Little and drafting small-school cornerabck Nick Collins. Second-year defenders Ahmad Carroll and Joey Thomas will be asked to fill major roles by new coordinator Jim Bates.

X-FACTOR: Guards are supposed to be interchangeable, but Wahle and Rivera were excellent starters who led Green Bay on many a successful sweep. If Adrian Klemm and Will Whitticker aren’t suitable replacements, the running game will suffer and Favre will be in jeopardy.

CHICAGO BEARS

PREDICTION: 5-11 (Fourth)

YOU KNOW: The team’s effort to rebuild its league-worst offense has been hampered by quarterback Rex Grossman’s ankle in jury and rookie running back Cedric Benson’s long holdout. With rookie Kyle Orton and Thomas Jones as opening day starters, head coach Lovie Smith needs his tight defense (12th in DVOA despite multiple injuries last year) to win some early-season games by itself.

YOU DON’T KNOW: New offensive coordinator Ron Turner got glowing reviews from players when he replaced Terry Shea’s Encyclopedia Britannica playbook with a simpler one that emphasizes power running and mediumrange passing. That should give Orton a fighting chance to find new receiver Mushin Muhammad. The Bears’ defense was 25th in the league in DVOA against opponents’ top wideouts, but they were tops in the league against no. 2 receivers thanks to cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Nathan Vashar, and they enter 2004 with the NFC’s deepest secondary.

X-FACTOR: The schedule. The Bears face the NFL’s easiest slate, with the Redskins, Browns, Saints, and 49ers all on tap. Some easy wins could keep the Bears around .500 and get them believing.

NFC SOUTH

CAROLINA PANTHERS

PREDICTION: 12-4 (First)

YOU KNOW: Injuries crippled the Panthers last year, but a late surge kept them in the playoff hunt until season’s end. With key starters like receiver Steve Smith back and important additions like guard Mark Wahle thrown in, John Fox’s team should be major playoff challengers.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The opposite of Atlanta, Carolina’s defense was excellent on first and second down (4th in DVOA), but lousy on third down (30th). Third down performance usually bounces back to match the other downs, and new defensive backs Ken Lucas and Idrees Bashir will help the Panthers get off the field. Stephen Davis was the only Panthers running back with a positive DVOA, and he missed 14 games. The team will once again pair him with the inconsistent DeShaun Foster.

X-FACTOR: Turnovers. The Panthers were +16 in turnover differential during their late-season five game winning streak; they were -4 during their 1-7 start. The defense led the league with 26 interceptions in 2004; the Panthers will need a similar effort this year.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

PREDICTION: 7-9 (Second)

YOU KNOW: The Bucs’ defense finished seventh in the league in DVOA despite some early-season problems against the run. The offense finished 23rd in DVOA despite significant lateseason improvement passing the ball. John Gruden’s of fense lacked big play potential last season, but the development of receiver Michael Clayton and the addition of rookie running back Cadillac Williams should improve the team’s quick-strike capability.

YOU DON’T KNOW:: New offensive coordinator Paul Hackett slows the offensive tempo on purpose, emphasizing ball control and making life easier for the defense. Hackett was criticized for his too-conservative philosophy with the Jets, but his offenses were efficient and effective when he had a healthy quarterback. The Bucs’ defensive stats will look better in 2005 simply because opponents will have fewer opportunities to run plays.

X-FACTOR: Karma. For two years, statistics have indicated that Tampa Bay was playing much better football than its record would indicate, but the Bucs seem to make the wrong play at exactly the wrong time in close games. One year of this would be fluke, but two years is a trend.

ATLANTA FALCONS

PREDICTION: 7-9 (Third)

YOU KNOW: Michael Vick’s passing DPAR of -19.4 makes him well below average in the pocket, but his rushing DPAR of 29.3 makes the Falcons one of the best running teams in the league. The Falcons are doing everything they can to make Vick more effective this season, like rolling the pocket more and giving young receivers Roddy White and Michael Jenkins the chance to win starting jobs in place of the departed Peerless Price.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The Falcons only outscored their opponents by three points last year; which usually translates to 8-8 rather than 11-5. They were far better defensively on third down than first or second down, which portends decline. They face the toughest schedule in the NFC, with five tough games right off the bat (Eagles, Seahawks, Bills, Vikings, Patriots). Even the easy games are hard, with visits to Detroit on Thanksgiving and Chicago at night in December. In short, all indicators point to a disappointing year.

X-FACTOR: The young receivers. White will struggle as a rookie, but Jenkins should be a tough possession receiver, giving Vick a safety valve he’s never really had.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

PREDICTION: 5-11 (Fourth)

YOU KNOW: This mediocre team of underperforming fantasy football stars has seen its season thrown into complete disarray by the destruction of its home city. On the field, New Orleans hopes to build on its 4-0 finish of 2004, and new offen sive coordinator Mike Sheppard’s scaled-down playbook is designed to allow Aaron Brooks to finally reach his potential as a quarterback. The Saints’ December surge occurred just after Mike McKenzie and Fakhir Brown took over as starting cornerbacks, giving hope that the defense will be respectable in 2005.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The Saints are still turnover prone, but managed to recover 59% of their own fumbles last season. Fumble recoveries are a matter of luck, so look for Brooks and company to give up the ball at their usual rate this year. While the Saints are considered an inconsistent team, they had the lowest gameby-game DVOA variance in the league last year. Until the final couple weeks of 2004, every Saints performance was slightly below average, so the team lost to better teams and beat worse teams.

X-FACTOR: The emotional impact of Hurricane Katrina.

NFC WEST

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

PREDICTION: 10-6 (First)

YOU KNOW: The Seahawks were 9-5 against the rest of the league but 0-3 against the Rams last season. Most of the key starters on both sides of the ball are back, minus headache receiver Koren Robinson. The offensive line is the best in the conference, particularly on the left side, where Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson play. The Seahawks know their lines will protect Matt Hasselbeck and open holes for their running backs, which is why they were in no hurry to pay Shaun Alexander.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The Seahawks were great offensively on first and second down in 2004, but were one of the league’s worst teams on third down. A mixture of bad luck and dropped passes are to blame, and third down performance tends to fall back in line with the other downs. Replacing Robinson with sure-handed Bobby Engram will take care of the drops; the luck will take care of itself.

X-FACTOR: The defense, which fell apart last year due to injuries. New cornerbacks Kelly Herndon and Andre Dyson will help incumbent Marcus Trufant to keep the Rams’ wideouts in check.

ST. LOUIS RAMS

PREDICTION: 8-8 (Second)

YOU KNOW: Mike Martz’s Flying Circus is back under the St. Louis big top, but the team went to great lengths to make sure that the defenders wouldn’t tumble out of a tiny car and squirt each other with seltzer. Veteran linebackers Chris Claiborne and Bran don Chillar should upgrade a defense that finished 28th in the NFL in DVOA against both the run and the pass.

YOU DON’T KNOW: The Rams special teams ranked 32nd in the NFL in DVOA in 2004, 28th in 2003. Kicker Jeff Wilkins has been consistently solid, but all of the other units have been poor. New special teams coach Bob Ligashesky will try to improve the situation with the help of rookie punter Reggie Hodges and new kick gunners like free agent Michael Stone.

X-FACTOR: The offensive line. Rookie Alex Barron must step up to seize the right tackle position, and young players like guard Scott Tercero must also make their presence felt. All Pro Orlando Pace is the only sure thing on the starting five.

ARIZONA CARDINALS

PREDICTION: 7-9 (Third)

YOU KNOW: Kurt Warner is now the starting quarterback and head coach Dennis Green has surrounded him with an array of impressive young weapons including receivers Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Bryant Johnson, and rookie running back J.J. Arrington. Warner is only as good as the line blocking for him, so preseason injuries to tackle Oliver Ross and center Alex Stepanovich could spell trouble.

YOU DON’T KNOW: Defense ruled in Arizona in 2004, where the Cardinals quietly finished 15th in DVOA, posting their highest sack total (37) in half a decade. But that defense was inconsistent, with stellar games against the Seahawks and Falcons but terrible efforts in both meetings with the 49ers. The Cardinals could have been contenders, save for those two overtime losses against San Francisco and a three-game losing streak when Green benched quarterback Josh McCown.

X-FACTOR: The tight end position. Green is gambling that Eric Edwards, Aaron Golliday, or rookie Adam Bergen can step into the starting lineup. Edwards leads the group in career receptions with five.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

PREDICTION: 4-12 (Fourth)

YOU KNOW: The Niners changed their entire management structure in the wake of the Terry Donahue/Dennis Erickson era of mismanagement. Quarterback Alex Smith joined the team as the top pick in the draft but he’ll start the year on the bench as Tim Rattay leads the team through what could be a painful rebuilding cycle.

YOU DON’T KNOW: Rattay posted a not-horrible DPAR of 13.1 last year, with solid outings against the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks before getting hurt. Unfortunately, his best receiver was Cedric Wilson (DPAR: 15.8) who is now in Pittsburgh. Big names Julian Peterson, Bryant Young, and Ahmed Plummer should make the defense respectable, but the team had the worst defensive DVOA in the league last year, so there is more work to be done on that side of the ball.

X-FACTOR: Running back Kevan Barlow and receiver Brandon Lloyd. Both have great talent but have played down to the level of the organization in recent years. They can help turn the Niners around if they find their motivation.

STATISTICAL TERMINOLOGY

DVOA: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which takes every play in the NFL and compares it to a league average based on situation and opponent. A positive DVOA represents more scoring, so a good defense will be negative.

DPAR: Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement, which translates DVOA into a specific number of points to rate individual players. It also compares players to a replacement-level performance, rather than the league average, so players with a lot of carries or passes will gain value as long as their performance was not abysmal.

Adjusted Line Yards: A measurement that separates the value of an offensive line from the performance of running backs by measuring the first few yards of a run more than those yards gained after a back has shed all his blockers.