Only Hope for Knicks May Be the Lottery

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The New York Sun

With the Knicks’ loss against Dallas last night, we’re now at the quarter mark of the season, and as local fans have known this season, every time you think the situation can’t get any worse, it gets worse. When things are going well, such as what happens when the Knicks win the occasional upset, the happy times don’t last for very long. At 6–14, it’s time to assess what the prospects are for the remainder of the season.

The party line on this campaign was that the team turned a corner last winter after the ugly brawl at Madison Square Garden during the waning moments of the December 16 loss to Denver. Following the storm of controversy and numerous suspensions, the Knicks went 14–12 over the following six weeks and showed real signs of becoming a mediocre ball club — a big step up from the realm of the laughingstocks, which is where the Knicks have spent far too much time this decade. The optimism endured last season as a spate of injuries ended this team’s run of good play, and led to a 10–20 finish.

As it turns out, 10–20 looks pretty good compared to what’s come since. Despite — or perhaps because — of the draft night acquisition of Zach Randolph, the Knicks have plummeted back into the realm of the laughingstocks this season, and there’s little prospect for improvement, save for the occasional fluke win.

Going into last night’s game, the numbers on the Knicks looked utterly brutal. As bad as 6–13 looks, they’ve actually played worse than that mark indicates. The Knicks’ point differential is a negative 8.9 per game. That’s consistent with a 15–67 team, which would mark a franchise low for ineptitude.

The constant chants at the Garden for Thomas’s firing must make local hockey fans giggle. The Dolan family, which owns the Knicks, also owns the Rangers. During the first part of this decade, Rangers fans yelled themselves blue in the face for the firing of Glen Sather while their team managed to miss one postseason after another. Nothing came of it. The attempts of Knicks fans to run team president and head coach Isiah Thomas out of town are likely to meet with the same degree of failure. Chairman James Dolan clearly values loyalty over competence.

What’s worse is that while this weekend’s pair of losses to Philadelphia gave every indication that the Knicks have stopped playing hard for the coaching staff, other indicators suggest that the coaching staff has also thrown in the towel. Against Milwaukee 11 days ago, it was obvious that the team had not read the scouting report on the Bucks. They allowed Michael Redd, one of the league’s best outside shooters, abundant space, and also allowed Desmond Mason driving room galore. Also, they occasionally double-teamed Bucks’ center Andrew Bogut, leaving Redd all alone on the perimeter. So let’s add it up: The coaching staff and players are, at best, only occasionally motivated; the team is playing like a 67-loss doormat, and there’s little hope for change either on the bench or in the front office to shake things up. What little hope that exists for Knicks fans now comes in the form of pingpong balls, and lots of them. The Knicks are on pace to place high up in the lottery. New York owes Utah a draft pick courtesy of the Stephon Marbury trade four years ago, but that pick remains with the Knicks as long as the team doesn’t finish with one of the seven best records in the league. Therefore, hell will freeze over before this edition of the Knicks finish with one of the seven best records in the league.

While Boston Celtics fans might have a vague and distant memory somewhere of a lottery disappointment, this year’s Knicks stand an excellent chance of being the odds-on favorite to take the no. 1 pick in the draft. Unlike last season, when several teams all but went in the tank to lose games and fortify their spot in the lottery, this season has fewer contestants for the top spot. The draft class looks weaker; even though the most hyped candidates, including Derrick Rose of the University of Memphis, O.J. Mayo of the University of Southern California, Kansas State University’s Michael Beasley, and others, are just getting used to their teams, much is likely to change by the time the season ends in April. Kevin Durant, the eventual no. 2 overall pick in this year’s June draft, didn’t look like a future NCAA player of the year at this point last season.

Only Durant’s Seattle Supersonics, who play the Knicks Wednesday night, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are anywhere near as bad as the Knicks, at least so far this year. Both are extremely young teams that figure to improve as the season wears on. Minnesota is largely a one-man team, with power forward Al Jefferson at the helm. With 32 points and 20 rebounds, he led them to a 100–93 win over Phoenix Saturday in what might be the season’s biggest upset. Minnesota is on pace for 16 wins, a number that could decline if Jefferson is injured, or increase if some of the other young players on the T-Wolves’ roster start to play well. Seattle is on pace for a 20-win season, which could skew higher as Durant and fellow rookie phenom Jeff Green get their NBA sea legs.

So, the good news at the quarter mark is that the Knicks look assured of having at least a top-six draft pick (the worst that the bottom three teams can pick is sixth). The selection will almost certainly be an impact player, and 20 games into this season, it’s clear that the Knicks need many of those.

mjohnson@nysun.com


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