NHL Enjoys the Revenge of the Goal

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The New York Sun

The NHL season is a full month old, and some very meaningful conclusions can already be drawn. Most crucial, there has been a precipitous increase in the number of goals scored. In 2003-04, an average of 5.14 goals were scored per game; this season, there have been 6.36 goals scored per game, an increase of 24%.


One reason for the rise in scoring is the league’s crackdown on obstruction, which has resulted in a dramatic increase in the number of power play opportunities. Thus far, the Vancouver Canucks are leading the NHL with 7.5 power plays per game. The last-place Washington Capitals, who are managing 5.6 power plays per game, would have led the league back in 2003-04,when the Nashville Predators averaged an NHL-best 5.2 power plays per game.


Looking at things from the other side, the Capitals were the most penalized team in 2003-04 with 4.9 power plays against each game. This season, the Chicago Blackhawks are shorthanded an average of 8.1 times per game.


In order to respond to this seismic shift, coaches have begun employing some very unorthodox strategies. In Philadelphia, Flyers head coach Ken Hitchcock has utilized three different sets of power-play quarterbacks, so even defense-first Sequoias Derian Hatcher and Mike Rathje get the opportunity to play with the man advantage. In addition, Hitchcock rolls four sets of penalty-killers, where the norm would be two or, at most, three.


Certain players benefit tremendously when they receive extra power play time, in particular elite-level forwards who already tend to amass large percentages of their production with the man advantage. The Rangers’ Jaromir Jagr leads the team with 22 points in 14 games; 11 were scored on the power play. Jagr is averaging over seven minutes of power play time per game, meaning one-third of his total ice time comes with the man advantage.


But the increased number of power plays only tells part of the story where the rise in scoring is concerned. The league’s leading scorer is speedy Carolina center Eric Staal, and only nine of his 25 points have come with the man advantage. Staal – along with the Devils’ Brian Gionta and the Islanders’ Jason Blake – is part of a new breed of players who will benefit tremendously from the league’s crackdown on obstruction.


Big, bruising power forwards rose to the forefront in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but the trend is now decidedly in favor of speedsters like Staal, no matter their physical stature. When the diminutive Martin St. Louis won the Hart Trophy in 2003-04, it marked an important step in this direction, and the league’s post lockout massaging of the rulebook has only served to accelerate the trend.


Perhaps the fastest skater on the Islanders, Blake’s aggressive pursuit of the puck has generated many scoring chances. Only Yashin and Satan have scored more goals, and Blake’s 50 shots on goal lead the team. The rule changes have had a similar impact for Gionta. His 52 shots lead the Devils by a wide margin, and his 12 points are second best on the team behind Alexander Mogilny (13 points).


Interestingly, there has not been a meaningful league-wide increase in shots on goal – teams averaged 28 shots per goal in 2003-04, and they’re averaging 30 shots per goal this season. One possible explanation is the increase in power play chances, because there are more situations where a goalie is facing an unguarded shooter.


The Devils, who are clearly missing the presence of both Scott Niedermayer and Scott Stevens, have seen their shots-against rise precipitously. In 2003-04, New Jersey allowed an average of 24 shots per game. This season, they’re averaging 31 shots against, and the 30% increase could have a huge impact on Martin Brodeur’s effectiveness as the season wears on.


Brodeur went down with a minor knee injury last week, and though he’s expected back between the pipes on Saturday afternoon against the Rangers, this is definitely a situation that bears watching. Scott Clemmensen has played well in Brodeur’s absence, but the Devils are unlikely to reach the playoffs if Brodeur goes down with a major injury.


In fact, all three local teams have already seen their starting goaltenders miss action due to injuries this season. Both the Rangers’ Kevin Weekes and the Islanders’ Rick DiPietro returned from injuries last night, and the results were dramatically different. Weekes shut down the Devils, stopping 30 shots en route to a 4-2 victory, while DiPietro was shelled in a 5-1 loss to the Penguins. If the rash of injuries to goaltenders continues, it could have a radical impact on the final standings.


So here we are, one month into a run-and-gun hockey season that evokes memories of the early 1990s, when Brett Hull, Teemu Selanne, and Alexander Mogilny all broke the 70-goal mark. Four players are currently on pace to top that plateau right now – Jagr, Ottawa’s Daniel Alfredsson and Dany Heatley, and Philadelphia’s Simon Gagne. The offensive outburst appears to be just what the doctor ordered for the ailing NHL.


Might the revival of the goal have the same impact that the home run explosion of the 1990s had for baseball? It’s too early to tell, but the dramatic rise in television ratings for NHL games – particularly in Canada – is a sure sign that the league is on the right track.



Mr. Greenstein is the editor-in-chief of InsideHockey.com.


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