NHL Draft an Inexact Science
By KEVIN GREENSTEIN

NHL Convenes Kicks Off at Ottawa
Tonight at Ottawa, the National Hockey League’s powers-that-be will convene for the first round of the annual Entry Draft, a challenging exercise during which they’ll attempt to project the long-term potential of a few hundred 17- and 18-year-old hockey prospects. There are a number of critical differences between the NHL draft and those held for the three other major North American pro sports leagues — most notably the lengthy separation between a player’s draft day and his eventual NHL debut. The NHL’s scouts have an incredibly difficult task, and it is no easier for the general managers who must decide, pick by pick, which scout’s advice to abide by.

Whereas NFL and NBA draftees are expected to contribute immediately, most NHL prospects will require years of seasoning before they’ll be ready to make an impact. But while baseball prospects are drafted into a minor league system that is focused on developing them in the major league team’s vision, NHL prospects are scattered across the globe. While a hockey team’s success is so heavily dependent upon chemistry, it’s rare for their prospects to develop that chemistry prior to their arrival in the NHL.

The Eastern Conference champion Pittsburgh Penguins are, of course, an exception to this rule, but not necessarily for good reasons. In dire financial straits for much of this decade, the Pens’ ongoing fire sale and subsequently poor on-ice performance allowed them to stockpile top-tier draft picks. Some, such as Sidney Crosby, Jordan Staal, and Evgeni Malkin, were ready to excel as teenagers competing against adults. Others, such as goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, were rushed into NHL action way too early, but managed to survive the ill advised baptism-by-fire and ultimately thrive.

Most prospects are not ready for NHL duty, and will instead play for a Canadian junior team, an American college team, or for a professional club in Europe. Given that, all speculation about “team needs” with regard to the draft should be thrown out the window. Projecting what a team’s needs might be four years hence — in this age of a salary cap and unrestricted free agency for players in the midst of their primes — is next-to impossible. Instead, each team’s focus should remain squarely on choosing the best available player, regardless of their position.

The Tampa Bay Lightning hold the first overall pick in the draft, and some of the usual pre-draft intrigue has been tempered by the team’s “Seen Stamkos?” campaign, which includes a Web site introducing him as “the NHL’s no. 1 draft pick.” Stamkos has long been considered the prize prospect of this year’s class, and he only helped his stock with a stellar 2007–08 performance for the Ontario Hockey League’s Sarnia Sting (58 goals and 47 assists in 61 games), and so it comes as no surprise that he’ll be the Lightning’s choice.

After Stamkos, the focus will turn to the blue line, as a quartet of rearguards are expected to quickly make their way to the stage. The best of the bunch is the Guelph Storm’s Drew Doughty, a whip-smart backliner who has drawn some comparisons to former Boston Bruins legend Ray Bourque. Considered to be nearly NHL-ready (no small detail given the Pens’ success with NHL-ready prospects), Doughty has taken an aggressive approach to his conditioning this offseason. Another two-way rearguard, Zach Bogosian of the Peterborough Petes, is right behind Doughty on most draft boards, with Alex Pietrangelo (Niagara IceDogs) in fast pursuit.

Of the local teams, the Islanders will head to the podium first, with the fifth overall pick. Looking at the Isles’ troubles in 2007–08, it’s clear that they’ve got needs throughout the lineup, with the lone exception perhaps in goal, where the injury-prone but excellent Rick DiPietro is locked up for another 13 seasons. The Isles would probably like to land a rock-solid defenseman to play in front of DiPietro, one who is capable of both moving the puck and keeping the crease clear. Hard-hitting defenseman Luke Schenn would certainly be a safe choice, but if the more highly regarded trio of backliners is already off the board, the Isles would be wise to move in a different direction entirely.

Last spring, Russian forward Alexei Cherepanov was widely considered to be one of the finest prospects in the draft, but concerns about Russia’s unwillingness to join the NHL’s transfer agreement with the International Ice Hockey Federation led to rampant speculation that it would take a kings’ ransom to secure his rights from Avangard Omsk (his Russian team). Cherepanov fell all the way to 17th overall, where the Rangers snatched him up, and though there are still some lingering doubts about his effort level and character, it still appears likely that the Blueshirts hit a home run with that pick.

This time around, it’s Nikita Filatov who is considered the top European prospect. Filatov’s character is no concern whatsoever, as he’s a hard-working player, but the precipitous fall of the American dollar on the international market — combined with the lack of a transfer agreement that would ensure an easy path to the NHL — may cause some teams to give pause.

If Filatov is still available at no. 5, the Isles would be wise to pounce. Dynamic scoring forwards haven’t exactly been flocking to Uniondale as free agents, and short of making a foolhardy Alexei Yashin-esque contract offer to Marian Hossa, the Isles’ best bet for adding a game-breaker is through the draft. With the exception of Stamkos, no forward in this draft has the kind of explosive skill Filatov boasts, and the Isles should consider themselves lucky if they’re able to land him.

The Rangers (20th overall) and Devils (21st overall) must wait a bit longer to make their first trip to the podium, and they will also need to balance the benefits of choosing the best player available versus restocking an organizational area of need. The Rangers have done a nice job of stockpiling talented prospects, and can probably afford to take a flier on a riskier player with upside.

The Devils, on the other hand, have suffered an exodus of top-tier talent over the past few years. Their blue line corps has been hit particularly hard, and it could be fairly argued that they would have been the recipients of a lottery pick in tonight’s draft if 36-year-old netminder Martin Brodeur hadn’t delivered a Vezina Trophy-winning performance between the pipes. And of course, finding a successor to Brodeur is also a concern: His decline is an unfortunate inevitability, and given that most netminders aren’t ready to start at the NHL level until they’re 22 or 23, goaltender must be considered a position of need for New Jersey from a developmental perspective.

Finding a top-tier starting goaltender is never easy, of course, with the Rangers’ recent history a prime example. In 2004, the Blueshirts had the sixth overall pick in the draft, and looking to fill a void left by Mike Richter’s retirement, selected highly touted netminder Alvaro Montoya. Less than four years later, Montoya was a throw-in in a deadline day trade, while Henrik Lundqvist (the 205th overall pick in the 2000 draft) has improbably emerged as a perennial Vezina Trophy finalist.

This year’s draft isn’t as deep as the 2003 class (20 of the 30 first round picks are already impact players at the NHL level), but it’s projected to be quite strong in its own right. And with a number of high-profile players rumored to be available in trade (including Malkin, Olli Jokinen, and Patrick Marleau), the intrigue is expected to reach a fevered pitch after the Lightning welcome Stamkos to the stage.
Mr. Greenstein is the editor in chief of InsideHockey.com.