Euro 2008 has had great soccer, dramatic and late goals, and surprising upsets. Of the four teams set for tomorrow and Thursday’s semifinal showdowns, no one embodies the tournament story lines better than Turkey: They should be known as the Cardiac Kids. Late goals helped Turkey secure all three of its wins; its equalizer against Croatia came on the last kick of extra time, forcing penalty kicks. Turkey clearly does not panic at the ends of games. Spain, too, managed to hold its nerves in its penalty kick shoot-out win against Italy, overcoming its reputation for choking on the big stage.

Can Turkey find another late miracle and pull off another upset? Will Spain continue to overcome its big tournament demons? No and no.

After this columnist got all four quarterfinal results wrong, readers should take the prediction that Sunday’s final will feature Germany and Russia with a heavy dose of salt. But while you can never count out Turkey, and Spain is getting closer to overcoming its disappointing big tournament legacy once and for all, Germany and Russia have form on their side.

Germany vs. Turkey

Wednesday, 2:45 p.m. (ESPN)

St. Jakob Park,

Basel, Switzerland

Germany was the pretournament favorite, but was written off by many after its unimpressive play in the group stage. The team bounced back decisively against Portugal in the quarterfinals, though, with a comprehensive performance that restored their status as favorites for the title. Germany was fluid in attack, with Bastian Schweinsteiger making a huge impact in his first match as a starter in Euro 2008. Schweinsteiger should keep his place for the semifinal, and Germany’s offense should be too much for Turkey.

Turkey is a big underdog in the match, but it won’t be phased by its familiar role. What will have an actual impact is the lack of missing players due to suspensions and injuries: Turkey will be without two of its top scorers, Nihat Kahveci (injured) and Arda Turan (suspended), and its first-choice goalkeeper, Volkan Demirel, (also suspended). And those are just the most notable of the missing Turkish players.

The good news for manager Fatih Terim is that it won’t be hard for him to choose his starting lineup, with only 15 available players for the 11 starting slots. The bad news is that many of the heroes from the previous matches will be watching from the sidelines.

Turkey will be hard-pressed to keep the match close enough for its usual heroics during injury-time to matter. If Germany can duplicate its quarterfinal performance, a late goal won’t be enough to save Turkey.

Spain vs. Russia

Thursday, 2:45 p.m. (ESPN2)

Ernst Happel Stadion,

Vienna, Austria

 

In the second quarterfinal, Russia looks for revenge, as well as a spot in the finals. In the first match of Group D, Spain dominated Russia on its way to a 4-1 victory. At that point, a semifinal rematch looked improbable.

Since that match, though, Russia has won three straight games, with its play improving in each match. Playmaker Andrei Arshavin returned from his two-game suspension in time for the final group match, and his presence against Sweden and against the Netherlands in the quarterfinal match was instrumental in Russia’s improved attacking play. With Arshavin on the field, the Russian offense was fluid and dangerous. There is no reason why Russia can’t maintain that form against Spain, so don’t expect another lopsided defeat.

Russian manager Guus Hiddink will have learned some valuable lessons from the first matchup as well. Hiddink built up quite a reputation as a miracle worker after taking South Korea to the semifinals in the 2002 World Cup and getting Australia to the knockout round in the 2006 World Cup. He has already added to his legend by getting Russia this far in Euro 2008, but he can truly cement his legacy as one of the best-ever national team managers if Russia can reach the finals.

In a certain sense, Spain has already had a successful Euro 2008. The team has reached its first major tournament semifinal since Euro 1984, and it beat Italy for the first time since 1920. Those are very positive strides for a team that usually underachieves. Still, with Spain’s talented roster, expectations are high.

Against Italy, Spain dominated possession, but it could not turn its advantage into goals. Italy was not dangerous enough on the counterattack to punish Spain’s wasted chances. If Spain can’t convert possession into goals against Russia, the Russians will make Spain pay: Russia thrives on turning defense into quick offense and will be happy to let Spain have a lot of possession in front of its defense. Russia should be able to frustrate Spain, just as Italy did, but the difference is that Russia should be able to score and settle the match before penalty kicks.

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