Louisville and Illinois Come Face to Face

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The New York Sun

It’s fitting that one of the most exciting NCAA Tournaments in history has wound down to a great Final Four. Considering that all four teams – Illinois, North Carolina, Michigan State, and Louisville – like to play an up-tempo brand of basketball, the national semifinals and the championship game should be as exciting as the classic regional finals.


Over the next two days we’ll take a closer look at the Final Four match-ups. Louisville (33-4), winner of the Albuquerque Regional, takes on Illinois (36-1), which advanced from the Chicago Regional. Michigan State (26-6), which won the Austin Regional, plays Syracuse Regional winner North Carolina (31-4).


Today, a look at how the Illini and Cardinals match up:


FRONTCOURT


The knee injury that Louisville forward Ellis Myles suffered two seasons ago seemed devastating at the time, but it turned out to be fortuitous. Myles, a fifth-year senior, was forced to sit out last season, allowing him to return and play for this team, which has proven to be special.


Part of the reason is the versatile Ellis, who is fourth on the team in scoring (10.2), first in rebounding (9.3 rpg), and second in assists, blocked shots, and steals. Ellis pulled off a triple-double against TCU in the Conference USA Tournament, the first in the tournament’s history. Myles needs nine boards against Illinois to become just the fifth player in Louisville history to score 1,000 points and grab 1,000 rebounds.


A case could be made that 6-foot-8, 245-pound Juan Palacios is the most valuable freshman in the country. Palacios has filled what was a gaping hole in Louisville’s front line and become a consistent scorer (9.5 ppg) and rebounder (6.5 rpg), not to mention a deceptively deadly three-point shooter.


Francisco Garca is listed as a forward, but he’s versatile enough to play every position, even at a willowy 6-foot-7 and 190 pounds. Garcia, Louisville’s leading scorer, is a fearless competitor who always wants the ball in tight situations. More often than not, he delivers.


Garcia drained a 3-pointer with 2.6 seconds left at Marquette to propel the Cardinals to a 64-61 victory after they had trailed 61-50 with under six minutes remaining. At UAB, he broke a 73-73 tie with a pair of last-minute free throws, then blocked a potential game tying shot with 13 seconds on the clock.


Otis George, a 6-foot-8 junior, averages five points and five boards in quality relief minutes off the bench. George has limited range with the ball, but he’s an animal on the offensive boards.


llinois’s frontcourt has been maligned at times, but there aren’t many coaches in the country who wouldn’t trade their power forward and center for the Illini’s Roger Powell and James Augustine.


Augustine, a 6-foot-10, 230-pound junior, has been effective, if not spectacular in his three seasons. Inconsistency has been his Achilles’ heel, but when Augustine sets his mind to the task, he becomes a game-altering player. He won Big Ten Tournament Most Outstanding Player honors after averaging 12.7 points and 10.3 rebounds while shooting 73% from the field (14-of-19).


Augustine led the Illini in scoring against Northwestern (15 points to go with eight boards), racked up a double double in the quarterfinals against Minnesota (11 points, 14 rebounds), and contributed 12 points, nine rebounds, and three blocks in a championship-game win over Wisconsin.


At 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds, Powell is a bit undersized for the power-forward spot, but his versatility makes him extremely difficult to defend. He gets more than his share of offensive rebounds (82 this season), can drive the ball to the rim, and even shoots the 3-pointer at a 37% clip.


Myles, Palacios, and George will have a strength advantage in the post. Illinois’s frontcourt players are remarkably agile for their size, but have had a hard time stopping physical big men this season.


Advantage: Louisville


BACKCOURT


Louisville’s starting guards are all deadly 3-point shooters. Taquan Dean, a 6-foot-3 junior, has tossed in 120 threes this season, a school record, while shooting 46% from behind the arc. He averages 14.5 points and 4.5 rebounds, excellent for a guard.


Larry O’Bannon, a 6-foot-4 senior, has elevated his game in March, averaging 18.6 points and shooting 59% from the field in his last nine games. O’Bannon, second on the team in scoring (15.2 ppg), shoots 43% from 3-point range, 49% from the field, and 85% from the free-throw line.


Meanwhile, the Illinois backcourt of juniors Dee Brown and Deron Williams and senior Luther Head is easily the best in the country. All three earned some sort of All-American or All-Big Ten honors.


Brown was voted the national Player of the Year by The Sporting News and was also the Big Ten Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year. Known around Illinois as the One-Man Fast Break, Brown is deadly in transition and can get to the rim in a hurry if a defender crowds him. He’s also a 44% 3-point shooter, which, coupled with his quickness, makes him as tough a defensive assignment as there is in college hoops. Brown is equally efficient as a playmaker, dishing out 166 assists this season.


Williams, a second-team All-American pick by the NABC and a first-team All-Big Ten selection, averages 13.2 points and shoots 37% from 3-point range. He’s not afraid to take big shots (witness his timely 3-pointers in Illinois’s spectacular comeback win over Arizona in the Elite Eight), and he’s the best playmaker in the Big Ten, passing for 248 assists this season.


Head, a second-team All-American pick by the NABC and United States Basketball Writers Association, leads the Illini in scoring (15.7 ppg), has passed for 148 assists, and shoots 41% from three-point range.


Louisville’s guards are excellent, but Illinois’s are better. Each one of them is a lockdown defender. No one on Louisville’s roster is as quick as Brown, and Williams and Head will be hard for Louisville to contain because of their size and strength.


Advantage: Illinois


BENCH


Louisville’s bench has been so thin this season that coach Rick Pitino has often been forced to utilize a zone defense just to keep his players rested and out of foul trouble. Behind the Cards’ starting five, only guard Brandon Jenkins (20.4 minutes per game) and forward George (19.4) play significant minutes. Pitino has used former walk-on guard Brad Gianiny and freshman swingman Lorrenzo Wade in all four NCAA Tournament games.


Illinois coach Bruce Weber has a few more bodies at his disposal. Eight players log between 11.5 and 33.0 minutes a game, and 6-foot-9 sophomore Warren Carter averages almost nine. Illinois has a huge size advantage off the bench. Along with Carter, Weber can turn to 7-foot-2 250-pound senior Nick Smith and 6-foot-10, 245-pound senior Jack Ingram.


Smith has a face-up game and can be disruptive defensively (18 blocks). Ingram, who has become a major contributor down the stretch, is a threat to score inside or out; he has begun to shoot the 3-pointer more often, and with confidence.


Pitino’s bench doesn’t have much to offer. Illinois is short on guard depth but has size, which gives the Illini an edge.


Advantage: Illinois


COACHING


Pitino is the only coach in history to lead three schools – Providence and Kentucky are the others – to the Final Four, and won a national championship at Kentucky in 1998. Pitino’s teams press and trap, shoot 3-pointers, and are generally disruptive to their opponents. The style has served him well.


Weber has been a head coach for seven years (five at Southern Illinois), and before that served an 18-year apprenticeship as an assistant to outgoing Purdue coach Gene Keady. He more than paid his dues to take over an elite program and he’s done a stellar job with Illinois, making pressure defense and a motion, passing offense the bedrocks of the program. This season, Weber has already won the Naismith national coach of the year award and Big Ten coach-of-the-year honors.


Advantage: Louisville


INTANGIBLES


There are outside forces propelling both teams. Louisville has used their relegation to a no. 4 seed in the Albuquerque region as motivation, regardless of what Pitino has said to the contrary. He broached the subject in press conferences just often enough to make his displeasure with the NCAA Tournament selection committee known. A great motivator uses anything he can to rally his team around a cause, and Pitino is a legendary motivator.


Before the Big Ten Tournament began, Illinois got extra motivation when Weber’s mother died. The coach’s players propped him up during a difficult time and pledged to play the rest of the season for Weber and his mother. Weber’s brother David won an Illinois Class AA championship last week. Could there be good karma guiding the brothers from the great beyond?


Advantage: Illinois


PREDICTION


Illinois has been on a mission all season and will earn its way into the championship game with a victory over Louisville.



Mr. Dortch is the editor of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook. He will break down the other Final Four game in tomorrow’s paper.


The New York Sun

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