For much of this year, it was assumed that the 2004 season would be the last for the Reds’ Barry Larkin. But the 40 year-old shortstop has refused to go quietly, hitting .294 and playing solid defense for Cincinnati this season. Nonetheless, the music is swelling on Larkin’s 19-year major league career, and it’s time to ponder whether he passes Hall of Fame muster.

There are two common methods of evaluating a player’s Hall of Fame case. One is to examine how much value a player conferred over the entire course of his major league career. The other is to assess the player’s peak value. After evaluating him in terms of both value measures, the record reveals that Larkin should certainly be voted in to the Hall of Fame.

First, let’s look at how Larkin stacks up in terms of career value. By using the Baseball Prospectus statistic called Wins Above Replacement Player, we can compare Larkin’s career offensive contributions to other shortstops throughout baseball history. WARP measures the number of wins a player contributes over what readily-available filler talent could have provided. It’s an offshoot of Value Over Replacement Player, a metric we’ve featured in this space numerous times that takes the same tack, except with runs in place of wins. Simply put, 10 runs of VORP are equivalent to one win in WARP.

Here are the top 15 shortstops of all-time ranked by their WARP contributions. For the purposes of this list, all players who accumulated the majority of their value at the shortstop position are eligible. The WARP figures, however, include all positions played:

Larkin has more career value than many Hall of Fame shortstops not on this list, including Joe Sewell, Joe Tinker, Luis Aparicio, Dave Bancroft, Travis Jackson, Hughie Jennings, Rabbit Maranville, Pee Wee Reese, and Phil Rizzuto.

As other accomplishments go, Larkin won the MVP award in 1995, swept the Gold Gloves at shortstop from 1994-96, and has played on 12 NL All-Star teams.

He also ranks in the top 100 for career runs scored (89th), doubles (81st), and stolen bases (81st). If he does indeed return next season, he’ll have a reasonable shot at cracking the top-100 list in walks, hits, extra-base hits, times on base, and total bases. His career batting line of .295 AVG/.371 OBA/.444 SLG percentage is excellent for a shortstop who played much of his career prior to the 1993 offensive explosion.

Larkin was also a very efficient base-stealer. More impressive than his 379 stolen bases is his career stolen-base success rate of 83.1%. From 1993 through 1995, Larkin swiped 91 bags and was caught only eight times.

In terms of peak value, Larkin fares even better. While he hasn’t been the same player since suffering a series of groin injuries in 2001, he was the dominant NL shortstop for more than a decade.

From 1988, Larkin’s first qualifying season in the majors, through 2000, the last season in which he was blessed with good health, he lorded over the position in the senior circuit. According to VORP statistics, Larkin was the best shortstop in the NL in 1988, 1990-92, 1995, 1996, and 1998-00. In his other four seasons, Larkin finished second three times. That’s dominance. Larkin also ranked among the top 15 major league players in VORP in 1990, 1991, 1995, and 1996.

Larkin also has some intangibles in his favor. A native of Cincinnati, he is poised to spend his entire career as a Red, a rare thing these days. Over those many seasons, Larkin served as the dignified bedrock for a franchise that reeled from the misdeeds of Pete Rose and former owner Marge Schott. Larkin was also a key member of the 1990 squad that won the World Series, batting .353 in the series sweep over the Oakland A’s.

All those factors will play a role in whether or not the writers vote Larkin into the Hall on the first ballot. But his impressive statistical record and status as a model citizen mean he’s every bit a deserving Hall of Famer. If there’s fairness, the voters will come to the same conclusion.

This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.