Early season tilts like Florida-Kansas, LSU-Texas, and Pitt-Wisconsin are not only drawing fans to college basketball earlier than ever before, the increased number of marquee match-ups also helps separate the elite teams from the pretenders.

A lot can change between now and March — Mike Krzyzewski could hypnotize every referee in the country into 10 more Duke-favored calls a game, Kansas State could challenge Cincinnati records for police blotter appearances, and Greg Oden could decide to quit the game and use his superhuman skills to fight crime.

Until then, we have a pretty good read on the biggest surprises and disappointments of the season so far.

SURPRISES

BUTLER
Record: 11–1
Key Wins: Illinois, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Purdue

George Mason’s Final Four run last season — along with the rise of Gonzaga and the Missouri Valley Conference —has heightened casual fans’ regard for mid-major teams. But Horizon League upstart Butler has remained a snake in the grass in recent years, with only a few insiders pointing to the Bulldogs as a legitimate threat. The basketball world might have to reconsider after Butler’s joyride through the NIT tournament. The bulldogs knocked off Illinois, Tennessee, and Gonzaga in succession to win the tourney.

One of the big knocks on mid-major teams is that they sometimes shill for respect by arguing that they’ve beaten teams from BCS conferences — you don’t see North Carolina or Ohio State jumping up and down when they beat Miami or Minnesota. But Butler’s four keynote wins have come against legit top 25-caliber teams; their lone loss was a road defeat at the hands of an underrated Indiana State squad. No 160-pound guard puts more fear in opponents’ eyes than Butler’s leading scorer A.J. Graves — except maybe Allen Iverson, but he’s not scaring anyone these days sitting on his couch.

OKLAHOMA STATE
Record: 11–0
Key Wins: at Auburn, at Missouri State, at Syracuse

The Cowboys have the inside-outside combo (6-foot-7 banger forward Mario Boggan and 6-foot-3 backcourt lightning bolt JamesOn Curry average more than 38 points a game between them) and the supporting cast (big guards Obi Muonelo and Terrel Harris also average double figures) to make a run deep into March.

The Big 12 has improved significantly this year, with Texas A &M and Kansas joining Oklahoma State among the elite, Texas’s kids progressing by leaps and bounds (just ask LSU), and a much improved Missouri likely to be a tough match-up when teams roll into Columbia. That schedule, plus non-conference slugfests against Tennessee and Pitt this week, will test the team’s mettle. Oh, and the Cowboys’ ace in the hole? It’s Marcus Dove, a streaky but talented sky-walker whose acrobatic dunks inspire teammates to flap their arms from the bench like frantic birds.

WICHITA STATE
Record: 8–0
Key Wins: at LSU, at Syracuse, at George Mason, at Wyoming

The Shockers surged to their first conference title in 23 years last season, no mean feat given how stacked the MVC was in 2005–06. But with MVC Player of the Year Paul Miller graduating, Wichita State looked like a nice little underdog that would be put back in its place this year. If that place is the Final Four, then the experts may have called it right. No team can top the Shockers’ startling four-pack of impact wins that includes knocking off two of last season’s Final Four entrants on the road.

The Shockers rarely turn the ball over (12th-best offensive turnover percentage in the nation), defend the perimeter better than most (15th-best defensive three-point FG%), and own a deep roster whose top seven scorers are all juniors and seniors. This is one of the most balanced teams in the country, with Kyle Wilson assuming the big man role and also nailing jumpers, Sean Ogirri darting through opposition’s defenses, and P.J. Cousinard assuming his role as the best athlete in the conference. Their nonconference schedule, combined with what’s likely to be another strong conference RPI, give the Shockers a shot at their highest tournament seed ever, with a no. 3 well within reach if they keep up their high level of play. Watch out.

DISAPPOINTMENTS

COLORADO
Record: 3–6
Bad Losses: at UNC-Wilmington, Pepperdine

Losing at the Pit in New Mexico, at Air Force, and even at home against a tough Wyoming team is understandable. But a home loss to 2–9 Pepperdine and a 12-point rout at the hands of a 3–5 UNC-Wilmington team that hasn’t intimidated anyone since the days of three-point bomber Brett Blizzard? Not good. The Buffs own one of the top scorers in the nation in 6-foot-6 swingman Richard Roby. It’s a young team to be sure, with only senior Dominique Coleman joining Roby among upperclassmen averaging more than three points a game.

But head coach Ricardo Patton’s October announcement that he was stepping down at the end of the season may be weighing on the club as much as the lack of a supporting cast. We already noted the Big 12’s top teams, but even Nebraska and Iowa State (after the departure of their two best players) look feisty this season. Colorado could be cellar-bound, just a year after a 20-win season that included impressive victories against Oklahoma and at Oklahoma State.

GEORGE MASON
Record: 4–4
Bad Losses: Bucknell, at Duke (by 16)

Greater expectations bring more pressure to perform, and the Colonials haven’t stepped up so far this season. Three of Mason’s four losses came to solid teams in Creighton, Wichita State, and the Dukies. But a Final Four squad should be able to handle a 3–5 Bucknell team that’s a shadow of its recent self, especially at home. Going to Cameron Indoor and snatching a win is a near-impossible task. But Mason looked flat against the Blue Devils throughout their December 9 tilt, shooting just 42% from the field, 56% from the line, and 24% from 3-point range.

The loss of Jai Lewis from last year’s Cinderella squad leaves 6-foot-7 Will Thomas as the biggest player on the roster and the only one capable of making an impact in the post. Teams are going to collapse on Thomas inside as the year goes on. Mason will need to do a lot better than 272nd (out of 334 teams) in 3-point shooting if they want to give him room to operate. The lack of inside presence (the Colonials rank 304th in blocked shots) means opposing teams will also likely drive the lane against Mason all year long.

Mr. Keri is a writer for ESPN.com’s Page 2 and a contributor to YESNetwork.com.