It wasn’t supposed to be like this. No matter what the method, nearly every prognosticator in America said Philadelphia would run away with the NFC East. Instead, the Eagles have fallen apart and the other three teams are all jousting for the division title, with a wild card likely coming from the division as well.

DALLAS COWBOYS (6-3)

It took almost three years for Bill Parcells to fully rebuild the Cowboys scouting and personnel departments, replacing Jerry Jones’s yes-men with experienced football lifers. The work paid off, as the Cowboys made all the right moves in assembling this year’s roster.

Drew Bledsoe has proved that he still has some life left in his arm. Guard Marco Rivera helps solidify Bledsoe’s protection. Veteran Cornerback Aaron Glenn and cornerback/safety Anthony Henry have patched a secondary that gave up too many big plays in years past.

But Parcells and company saved their best work for the draft. Outside linebacker Demarcus Ware has four sacks and is a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Defensive end Marcus Spears is a starter, while fourth-round pick Chris Canty is also part of the defensive line rotation. Rob Petitti has stepped into a starting job at right tackle. And Marion Barber III has been the team’s most impressive running back in the first half. In short, the rookies are keeping this team afloat.

The Cowboys blew away the Eagles and Cardinals this season, but losses to the Redskins and Raiders, coupled with close calls against the Giants and 49ers, show the team to be having trouble putting opponents away. The second-half schedule includes road rematches with the Giants and Redskins, but the Cowboys host tough Chiefs and Broncos teams as well.

With a veteran core surrounded by ever-improving youngsters, the Cowboys have the best chance to pull away in the NFC East. But relying too heavily on the rookies (including kicker Shaun Suisham) will hurt once the playoffs arrive.

NEW YORK GIANTS (6-3)

Special teams giveth, and special teams taketh away.

The Giants boast the NFL’s best special teams unit, which gives the team a hidden boost on offense and defense. Plaxico Burress’s arrival has certainly bolstered Eli Manning’s development, but the team’s offensive success was also a product of the short field the return game provided. On defense, a longer field helps the Giants overcome mistakes by their injury-depleted secondary.

The special teams suffered a meltdown against the Vikings on Sunday, allowing kickoff and punt return touchdowns while fumbling away the opening kickoff. Suddenly, Manning was forced to press, threw four interceptions, and the Giants let a bad team beat them.

While Manning and the special teams are falling back to earth, Michael Strahan, Antonio Pierce, and the Giants defense are not – they’ve gone three games without surrendering an offensive touchdown. The Giants will win some games in the second half by relying on their defense and Tiki Barber, but road games against the Eagles, Seahawks, and Redskins will be tough tests. Their stumble against the Vikings may loom large as the playoffs approach.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (5-4)

Joe Gibbs’s teams are usually steady and consistent, but it’s hard to imagine a team more inconsistent than the Redskins through the first 10 weeks.

This is a team that followed a 52-17 win with a 37-0 loss, a team that’s a perfect 4-0 at home but 1-4 on the road. They play badly and win (against the Cowboys). They play well and lose (against the Broncos and Buccaneers). They’re predictably unpredictable.

A resurgent Mark Brunell has helped the Redskins convert 43.2% of third downs, one of the best marks in the NFL. But third down success fluctuates wildly, especially when it’s built on converting lots of third-and-long situations. Brunell, Santana Moss, and tight end Chris Cooley had an uncanny knack for moving the chains in the first half of the season. Don’t expect them to be as successful in the second half.

Gibbs has done an excellent job of developing the Redskins’ bench; the team didn’t collapse when key starters like defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin and cornerback Walt Harris were hurt. Still, the cap-strapped Redskins are always one key injury (to Brunell, Moss, running back Clinton Portis, or tackle Chris Samuels) from an offensive collapse.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-5)

Last week, Carrot Top appeared on “Live With Regis and Kelly” and included a Terrell Owens gag in his comedy routine. When prop comics are dissing you on daytime talk shows, it may be time to change your lifestyle.

T.O. casts a large shadow, and it’s easy to blame the Eagles’ woes on the distractions he created. It’s true that the Eagles have shown a lack of preparation and focus this season. Last year, they had the best first-quarter offense in the NFL; this year, according to DVOA, they rank 25th, suggesting they don’t always leave the tunnel with a razor-sharp game plan.

But there are other problems. The loss of defensive tackle Corey Simon to the Colts sapped the depth from the defensive line. The offensive line looks a step old and slow this year. The team abandons the run far too quickly. And while coach Andy Reid and the front office have kept the team out of salary cap purgatory with a “stay the course” approach to player salaries, their unwillingness to sign a few veteran backups has left the team short on dependable role players.

With Donovan McNabb hurt and three division losses under their belt, the Eagles appear to be sunk. The NFC East is likely to come down to tiebreakers, and a Giants win on Sunday over Philly will leave the Eagles with a losing record in the division. With a healthy cap situation, the team may start planning a mini-rebuild for 2006.

Projected order of finish: Giants 9-7 (division title), Dallas 9-7 (wild card), Washington 9-7, Philadelphia 7-9.

Mr. Tanier is a writer for Football-Outsiders.com, which will report on the AFC North and AFC South in tomorrow’s New York Sun.