Before the 2005 season, prognosticators had three theories of how the NFC North would shake out: Either Brett Favre would lead the Green Bay Packers on one more march to the postseason, or the infusion of defensive talent in Minnesota would make the Vikings a force, or the flashy young offensive skill players in Detroit would lead the Lions into the playoffs. The correct answer was none of the above.

CHICAGO BEARS (6-3)

Chicago has come a long way since quarterback Rex Grossman broke his ankle in the second preseason game, causing even the most die-hard Bears fans to think the season effectively ended in August. After a 1-3 start, Chicago is on a five-game winning streak and has already won more games than it won all of last year.

But rookie quarterback Kyle Orton doesn’t deserve the credit. Chicago thrust Orton into a starting job before he was ready, and Chicago wins despite Orton, not because of him. Orton averages only 5.3 yards per pass, and he has 10 interceptions and eight fumbles in nine starts. Still, when Grossman returns to health, Chicago coach Lovie Smith will not bench the starting quarterback of a first-place team.

Smith has the luxury of sticking with Orton because he has built an outstanding defense. At every position, from end Adewale Ogunleye to linebacker Brian Urlacher to cornerback Charles Tillman, the Bears are among the fastest defensive teams in football.

Nothing warms up Chicago in January like a playoff game at Soldier Field. Barring a string of injuries to the stellar defense, Bears fans can start to prepare for a thaw.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-5)

After Randy Moss left for Oakland in the off-season, no one expected the Vikings to maintain last season’s torrid pace, when Daunte Culpepper led the NFC’s best offense. But no one could have expected such a steep decline, either. Culpepper played badly before being knocked out for the season with a knee injury, and his replacement, Brad Johnson, is way past his prime.

But Minnesota’s defense is the real problem. With five new starters acquired during the off-season, coordinator Ted Cottrell thought he had all the pieces in place to build one of the best units in the league. Instead, he had 11 pieces that didn’t fit together, demonstrated publicly when cornerback Fred Smoot said he had to cover Carolina receiver Steve Smith one-on-one all game in Week 8 even though the defensive game plan called for Minnesota’s safeties to help. Tackle Pat Williams is having the greatest impact of the new defensive players, but the whole unit is failing to mesh.

Despite winning two straight games with Johnson at quarterback, the Vikings are unlikely to make a playoff push. A season that promised to usher in a new Vikings defense now looks like it will usher out coach Mike Tice.

DETROIT LIONS (4-5)

Detroit Lions fans suffered through four losing seasons to start team president Matt Millen’s tenure, but as Millen built a young and fast team, Detroit was a trendy pick to win the division.

Instead, Detroit looks like the same old Lions. Most fans blame quarterback Joey Harrington, but the offense didn’t perform any better in the two games Jeff Garcia started. The real problem is that receivers Charles Rogers and Mike Williams have shown no desire to become the stars in the NFL that they were in college, and the one receiver who fights to make catches, Roy Williams, can’t stay healthy. Running back Kevin Jones averaged 4.7 yards a carry last year, but is managing only 3.2 this year.

Detroit’s pass defense has kept it in games, though. Strong safety Kennoy Kennedy covers tight ends as well as anyone in the league. Detroit’s DVOA against opposing tight ends is first in the NFL, and last year, when Kennedy was in Denver, the Broncos’ DVOA against tight ends was second. End Kalimba Edwards has developed into a premier pass rusher. But Detroit’s offense can’t get many leads, which means opponents rarely have to pass.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-7)

Green Bay has scored 201 points and given up 184, numbers more typical of a 5-4 team than a 2-7 team. The Packers are better than their record suggests, but not so much that they can expect to catch the rest of the division.

Brett Favre’s numbers look mediocre because he plays with one of the worst collections of offensive talent in the league. His top receiver, Javon Walker, played in one game. Receiver Robert Ferguson has missed three games, and for the last two weeks Green Bay has been down to its fifth running back, undrafted rookie Samkon Gado. Guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera left as free agents, and Green Bay replaced them with seventh-round rookie William Whitticker and Patriots castoff Adrian Klemm. That this collection of players has an average offense demonstrates that Favre is the best quarterback in the NFC North.

The one Packer who deserves more credit than Favre is cornerback Al Harris, who shuts down some of the league’s best receivers, including Carolina’s Steve Smith and Cincinnati’s Chad Johnson, while all around him the rest of the defense struggles.

Last week Packers coach Mike Sherman gave Favre a day off practice because, Favre said, he felt “lethargic.” That doesn’t sound like the exuberant Favre fans are used to seeing. If this is the last year for Favre, he won’t go out a winner, but he’ll still go out as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Projected Order Of Finish: Chicago 9-7, Minnesota 7-9, Detroit 7-9, Green Bay 6-10.

Mr. Smith is a writer for Football-Outsiders.com.