The team that everyone wrote off before the season began takes on the team that everyone wrote off in the middle of August.

This was supposed to be the year that the Atlanta Braves’ run of consecutive division titles came to an end; instead, they won their 13th straight (not counting 1994, when the Expos led the NL East when the strike washed out the rest of the season). Meanwhile, Houston was 56-60 on August 14, then went 36-10 the rest of the way to grab the National League wild card slot from the Cubs and the Giants.

We’ll compare the teams using our Value Over Replacement Player measurement. VORP lets us know how much more valuable a player is than a readily available fringe player (like Gerald Williams), and adjusts for position and for their playing time. Like salary and IQ, higher numbers are better.

Here’s what happens when the notoriously-fragile Drew stays healthy enough to get over 600 plate appearances: He turns out to be one of the top 10 offensive players in the game. The rest of the lineup looks a little easier to deal with, but unlike their opponents, there are no big holes.

Bobby Cox has relied on platoons at first base and in left field, so don’t focus exclusively on Laroche and Thomas when you check out those VORPs. Julio Franco and Eli Marrero offer good firepower from the right side of the plate. All told, this offense relies on consistency throughout, rather than studs-and-scrubs. Chipper Jones started the year horribly but played well down the stretch – he’s probably better than that number.

Having Franco and Marrero on the bench when Houston starts its two stud right-handers will give Bobby Cox the ability to dictate matchups in the late innings. But with the other players here, Cox has about as many buttons to push as an elevator in a two-story building. He’ll miss Mark DeRosa, who’s out with a knee injury.

If we had told you before the start of the season that Wright would be the Braves’ starter in the first game of the postseason, you would rightfully have had us committed. But as Leo Mazzone’s latest successful reclamation project, Wright has recaptured the stuff that he flashed when he burst onto the scene with Cleveland in 1997. Ortiz, the team’s ace for much of the year, isn’t slated to start, with the Braves planning a three-man rotation for now. But he may fill in for Thomson, who’s got a strain in his side.

Smoltz has been begging for a start, but he’s more valuable at the end of a bullpen that has been one of the best in the game this season. They’ve also been one of the busiest units, thanks mostly to Cox’s penchant for playing matchups. Smoltz, Reitsma, and Alfonseca all appeared in more than 70 games this year, and Gryboski threw in 69.

The first five: Murderer’s Row. The last three: Bad News Bears.

In four postseason appearances, Bagwell has hit .174 AVG/.367 OBA/.174 SLG, while Biggio has hit .130/.242/.148. Neither of the original Killer B’s are the hitters they used to be, but they don’t have to carry the same burden they were expected to in the past. Berkman, is the stud of this lineup; the newest B, Beltran, and Kent also add a ton of pr duction. Too bad that after Kent in the five hole, things come to a screeching halt.

Ensberg showed good promise coming off a strong 2003, but the Astros would probably do well to platoon him and Lamb, given the solid left-handed bat Lamb has shown this year. Palmeiro serves as the lefty pinch-hitter, but we use that term in the loosest possible sense. Everett is just back from a broken wrist, and as such will probably be used only for defense and pinch-running. If Everett is at 100% by the LCS, he’ll likely start over Vizcaino.

Houston starters put up a sparkling 3.86 ERA in September, which was the real key to the team’s run to the playoffs. Clemens just keeps dominating people, and Oswalt has been excellent as well. But injuries to Andy Pettitte and Wade Miller leave the Astros with a host of bad options at the tail of the rotation. The postseason lets you get away with a short staff, but are two big-league starters enough to get the job done?

Lidge held opposing batters to a .174 average this year and has been the best closer in baseball – better even than Gagne and Rivera – the last two months. But after him, there’s some real cause for concern. The bullpen did at least stabilize in the latter part of the season, especially with Qualls becoming a fairly reliable setup man. But with a short rotation, there will be a lot of pressure on these guys, and there’s every possibility of a torch job or two from the group ahead of Lidge.

THE MATCHUP

The Astros have easily been baseball’s hottest team over the last month and a half. But the past has shown such streaks to be far from a guarantee – just ask the Oakland Athletics.

The Astros remind us of the champion 2001 Diamondbacks: two stud pitchers, a few guys banging at the top of the lineup, and a bunch of spare parts. But are Clemens and Oswalt the equals of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling? Not quite, but it’s no exaggeration that Houston’s chances rest squarely on the right arms of their two top starters.

Meanwhile, the Braves just keep winning. They’ve won with pitching in the past, and that’s been a strength this year, as they lead the NL in ERA as a staff. But they were also a pretty good offensive team, finishing sixth in runs scored despite losing the sock of Javy Lopez and Gary Sheffield. There aren’t a lot of holes to exploit here, just a team that does everything pretty well.

Our guess is that this series is decided by the bullpens. Atlanta’s main set up men, Reitsma and Alfonseca, don’t strike out many batters, and the Astros will be swinging from their heels. Meanwhile, Houston is forced to rely on spare parts like Qualls and Harville to get to Lidge.

Atlanta’s a better bet in this series, even with Clemens and Oswalt throwing against them. It will go five games, but the Braves will sneak into the next round.

This article was provided by Baseball Prospectus. The Sun will run exclusive content from Baseball Prospectus throughout the 2004 season. For more state-of-the-art baseball content, visit www.baseballprospectus.com.