When the Washington Redskins won their first three games of the season by a total of six points, they were labeled a team that knew how to win the close ones. But the last three weeks, in which Washington has lost three games it led in the fourth quarter, have disproved that notion and effectively eliminated the Skins from the NFC East race.

Washington’s vaunted defense has played well against the run and struggled against the pass for most of the season, but yesterday’s 23-17 overtime loss to San Diego reversed that tendency. The Redskins’ secondary played well, intercepting Drew Brees three times and holding him to just 215 yards on 22-of-44 passing. But LaDainian Tomlinson – who, in truth, is rarely if ever stopped by anyone – gained 184 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning 41-yard scamper in overtime.

No player was more important to Washington’s hot start than receiver Santana Moss, who tore up opposing secondaries for 743 yards during Washington’s 4-2 start. But in recent weeks, opposing defenses have smartened up and double-covered Moss, leaving the immobile Mark Brunell to fend for himself. Without an effective passing game, Redskins running back Clinton Portis managed an average of three yards per carry.

Yesterday, Moss was held under 80 receiving yards for the fifth straight game. Moss’s one big play, a 22-yard touchdown catch, came when he managed to beat the double coverage of Chargers safety Bhawoh Jue and cornerback Drayton Florence.

Meanwhile, Tomlinson repeatedly ran behind left guard Kris Dielman, who has quietly developed into a major force in the middle of San Diego’s line. Dielman consistently got the better of Washington’s defensive tackle rotation of Joe Salave’ a, Cedric Killings, and Cornelius Griffin. The middle of Washington’s defense had been strong for most of the last two seasons, but its failure yesterday showed that preseason perceptions of Washington as a mediocre team were accurate.

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If preseason predictions were right about Washington, they couldn’t have been more wrong about the Chicago Bears. Yesterday’s 13-10 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was Chicago’s seventh in a row, further entrenching into first place the team universally picked to finish last in the NFC North.

Chicago’s starting defensive ends, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye, dominated Tampa Bay tackles Anthony Davis and Kenyatta Walker. Because Chicago’s defensive linemen generate such an effective pass rush, the linebackers can eschew the blitz and hang back to eliminate underneath throws to tight ends and running backs, meaning quarterbacks don’t have a safety valve when they play the Bears.

A week after allowing a big game by no. 1 receiver Steve Smith but shutting down the rest of the Carolina Panthers’ offense, Chicago employed the same strategy against Tampa Bay. When throwing to his top receiver, Joey Galloway, Bucs quarterback Chris Simms completed seven passes on eight attempts for 138 yards. But Simms was only 12 of 22 for 64 yards on his other passes.

Chicago, like most winning teams, has also benefited from some good luck, and yesterday was no exception. When Bucs kicker Matt Bryant missing a 29-yard chip shot with less than three minutes remaining, the Bears had secured their eight win and a two-game lead in the NFC Central. Lucky breaks aside, though, Chicago has unequivocally shown it can play with anyone in the conference.

The one divisional rival that still has a chance to catch the Bears, the Minnesota Vikings, have improved to a surprising 6-5, winning all four games since Brad Johnson replaced Daunte Culpepper at quarterback.

It would be too simplistic to say the Vikings, who beat the Cleveland Browns 24-12 yesterday, have won only because of Johnson: Minnesota defeated the Giants thanks to touchdown returns on an interception, a punt, and a kickoff, while the other three wins came against subpar teams: Cleveland, Detroit, and Green Bay. But Johnson, a 14-year veteran, now has six touchdowns and two interceptions since taking over for a 2-5 team in Week 8. Before he was lost for the season with a knee injury, Culpepper had six touchdowns and 12 interceptions. With a competent veteran quarterback and an improving defense, Minnesota remains in the playoff hunt, especially in a soft NFC.

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And to round out our preseason prediction theme, the once-proud AFC East is without doubt the worst division in football, which is the only reason the two-time defending champion New England Patriots will make the playoffs.

A 26-16 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs was the latest reminder that New England’s defense is nothing close to what it has been in the Patriots’ Super Bowl years, but in a new twist, this time quarterback Tom Brady played a bad game as well.

Brady looked frustrated playing from behind all day after the Chiefs scored a touchdown on their first drive. He threw four interceptions, all of them when he was attempting to force something that wasn’t there to a wide receiver downfield. The crowd noise seemed to rattle the usually unruffled Brady, who had to waste three timeouts just to avoid delay of game penalties.

Struggling on the road is nothing new for Brady this season. Nine of his 10 interceptions have come away from home. That’s bad news for a team that, although it is 6-5 and the favorite in its division, will almost certainly have to win two road playoff games to return to the Super Bowl.

Adding insult to injury, five different Chiefs had more than 50 receiving yards against the Patriots’ secondary yesterday. Quarterbacks have begun picking on cornerback Asante Samuel, a third year player who looked solid enough in his first two seasons in the league, but this year has missed injured safety Rodney Harrison, on whom he had come to rely for help on deep passes. On Kansas City’s first possession, Samuel gave up a 42-yard completion to Eddie Kennison. He later gave up a 20-yard completion to Samie Parker.

Chiefs running back Larry Johnson had another great game in the absence of Priest Holmes, who started the first seven games of the season for the Chiefs and never gained more than 90 yards in any one of them. With Holmes out for the season, Johnson has started four games and gained 107, 132, 211, and, yesterday, 119 yards. Johnson’s presence makes Kansas City a good team, but in the crowded AFC, it’s unclear whether the Chiefs are good enough to beat out Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, or San Diego for a wild-card spot. When the playoffs begin, any one of those teams would be favored over New England. No one could have expected that three months ago.

Mr. Smith is a writer for the statistical Web site FootballOutsiders.com.