The four teams in the AFC West have shared a division since the founding of the AFC in 1960, and their rivalries are among the best in professional sports. But this year, their battle is hard-fought even by their usual standards. Three of these teams are playoff-caliber, but because of schedule – they have to play each other as well as the improved teams of the NFC East — it is likely only one will make the postseason.

DENVER BRONCOS (7 -2 )

Critics scoffed when the Broncos imported the entire Cleveland defensive line in the off-season, then spent three high draft picks on defensive backs.

No one is scoffing now. Ex-Browns Gerald Warren and Courtney Brown have given the Broncos a deep, effective rotation on the defensive line. And with cornerback Champ Bailey playing hurt most of the season, Darrent Williams, and Domonique Foxworth have prevented an emergency in the secondary. Credit coordinator Larry Coyer for blending the rookies and Cleveland expatriates into his scheme; Coyer rarely asks more of his players than they can handle, and Broncos defenders never seem to be out-of-position.

It’s business as usual on offense, where center Tom Nalen and the Broncos line are ranked second in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric, Adjusted Line Yards, and third in the pass protection metric, Adjusted Sack Rate. Running and play-action passing remain the name of the game, and the rushing duo of Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell forces opponents to crowd the line. That makes life easy for Jake Plummer, who’s having a career year highlighted by just three interceptions.

A tough late-season schedule starts with a Thanksgiving meeting with the Cowboys in Dallas. For a Broncos team that has lost to the Colts in the postseason two years running, home playoff games and a first-round bye are critical.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (5-4)

The Chargers battled a brutal schedule in the first half of the season, facing six teams that currently have winning records, plus the Eagles and Raiders on the road. They lost games on late interceptions, stuffed two-point conversions, and a blocked field goal. But they’re still 5-4 entering the second half.

Unfortunately, the road doesn’t get any easier. The Chargers travel to Indianapolis, Washington, and Kansas City, while hosting the Broncos and the scrappy Bills. All statistical indicators say the Chargers are one of the league’s best teams. They’d finish 12-4 in the AFC South, but the tough second-half slate will force them to fight for a wild-card berth.

This year’s Chargers team is similar to the one that shocked the NFL last year. Tailback LaDainian Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates are the stars. Quarterback Drew Brees remains a master delegator, spreading the ball among Gates and a corps of steady but unspectacular receivers. The defense received a boost from rookies Luis Castillo and Shawne Merriman, but it is still a no name unit built around exceptional tackle James Williams and linebacker Donnie Edwards.

K ANSAS CITY CHIEFS (5 -4 )

Coach Dick Vermeil and coordinator Gunther Cunningham have finally assembled a decent defense. Unfortunately, they did so just as their once-unstoppable offense fell back to earth.

The Chiefs have completely transformed their run defense, which ranks first in Football Outsiders’ ratings despite a bad game against Denver. The key players are the linebackers: the emergent Kawika Mitchell, rookie Derrick Johnson, and free agent signing Kendrell Bell. Of course, there’s no reason to run when you can pass, and the Chiefs are still having problems in the secondary. Ex-Dolphin Patrick Surtain keeps top receivers in check, but the same cannot be said of holdover Eric Warfield.

The bigger issue is the way age and injuries have caught up to the offense. Priest Holmes is out for the year. Pro-Bowl tackle Willie Roaf has missed much of the season. Capable backups like running back Larry Johnson have stepped in, but old timers like Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez, and Eddie Kennison have taken a step back. Worse yet, opponents have figured out Al Saunders’s offense, which is built on misdirection and mismatches. Defenders just aren’t faked out anymore when the Chiefs run a screen to Gonzalez or a reverse to Dante Hall.

With their final six games all coming against teams with winning records, the Chiefs are primed for a slow fade from the playoff chase.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (3 -6 )

Give Norv Turner mediocre personnel and he’ll produce an average offense. Give him outstanding personnel and he’ll still produce an average offense.

With the Raiders near the middle of the pack in offensive production, fingers have been pointed at quarterback Kerry Collins. They should be pointed at Turner, whose game plans have featured players like Courtney Anderson and Doug Gabriel at the expense of weapons like Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan. The Raiders’ offense is a station wagon when it should be a sports car.

There are more problems on defense. Derrick Burgess has improved the pass rush, but the secondary remains a haven for the inexperienced and unprepared. The Raiders have intercepted just two passes all season, with defensive backs Nnamdi Asomugha, Stanford Routt, and Stuart Schweigert making frequent mistakes in coverage.

The Raiders started going through the motions in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss to the Broncos; they stopped finishing blocks or chasing plays. Moss and others are reportedly grumbling about Turner’s coaching style. Impatient Al Davis won’t wait until the season ends to start searching for his next head coach.

Projected order of finish: Denver 12-4, San Diego 9-7, Kansas City 9-7, Oakland 6-10.

Mr. Tanier is a writer for the statistical Web site FootballOutsiders.com.