With polls indicating that Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin will be about evenly matched against any of her likely opponents in the race for one of Michigan’s U.S. Senate seats this year, questions about the effect of the state GOP’s meltdown over the past few years are beginning to percolate.

A survey of 600 likely voters commissioned by the Detroit News and WDIV-TV and conducted by the Glengariff Group found that respondents were about evenly split in supporting Ms. Slotkin or her three most likely opponents.

Against Congressman Mike Rogers, Ms. Slotkin leads 38 percent to 37 percent, with 25 percent undecided. Against Congressman Peter Meijer, the candidates are tied at 36 percent, with 25 percent undecided. Against Detroit’s police chief, James Craig, Ms. Slotkin trails 36 percent to 38 percent.

“All three are essentially a toss-up. We see James Craig like 2 points ahead of Slotkin at this stage, simply because of, I think, increased name ID out of southeast Michigan,” pollster Richard Czuba told the Detroit News. “But we see with the other two that it’s dead even. They’re all within the margin of error.”

The survey, which was conducted between January 2 and 6, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

Even as the Senate primary ramps up in earnest, though, the state Republican Party’s self-destructive streak has only escalated into the New Year. At a party meeting over the weekend, 88 percent of attendees voted to oust the chairwoman of the state Republican Party, Kristina Karamo.

Ms. Karamo, though, denounced the vote as illegitimate. The group that voted to oust her, in turn, elected a new chairwoman, Malinda Pego, and the two factions now maintain separate websites, both claiming to be the legitimate Republican Party of Michigan.

A political scientist at the University of Michigan, Jonathan Hanson, tells the Sun that the situation has left the party wholly incapable of supporting candidates in the state.

“First of all, the state party organization is in a mess,” Mr. Hanson tells the Sun. “They haven’t been raising money anywhere close to where they should be for an election year, so financially, the party is not in a position to assist any candidates running for office.”

Mr. Hanson says that the infighting between the “traditional Republicans and a more assertive, aggressive MAGA Republican cohort” resulted in the MAGA wing electing Ms. Karamo, who “seems to have been a really poor manager” and oversaw the GOP breakdown in the state over the past few years.

Mr. Hanson says that two factors will be important in the election — who the nominees are and what the presidential election in Michigan looks like.

That most of the GOP’s nominees in 2022 were from the more extreme wing worked against the party in 2022, Mr. Hanson says. Nominating a candidate who is perceived as more moderate could help in 2024, he adds.

One thing potentially working in the party’s favor is that President Trump has not expressed who is his preferred candidate in the race. Mr. Rogers has endorsed Mr. Trump.

“Recently Mike Rogers, who’s one of the more well-known Republican candidates running, endorsed Trump, which I thought was pretty notable,” Mr. Hanson says. “I don’t think that Rogers is actually a big fan of Trump, but I think Rogers thought he needed to endorse Trump to position himself in this primary.”

In the presidential race in Michigan, Mr. Hanson says that President Biden is showing “significant weakness” in the state, an issue that could affect down-ballot races.

While it’s not clear how perceptions of Messrs. Trump and Biden will evolve over the next 11 months, Mr. Hanson did note that “it’s not like we’re getting the 24/7 coverage of Trump and all the crazy things that he says,” and that Mr. Biden’s standing in the state could improve as voters tune into the race.