Snap Poll Giving Sunak the Win in First U.K. Leaders’ Debate Likely To Prove a Hollow Victory
Missing from the debate: the dynamic promise of Brexit, to which Boris Johnson can credit his 80-seat majority at the December 2019 election.
Snap polling following the ITV News UK Leaders’ Debate may cheer Premier Rishi Sunak. He may think it puts the opposition Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on the backfoot. Any sense of satisfaction should be deservedly brief, though. As ever, the devil is in the details.
According to YouGov, on a headline response of best performance overall, viewers rated Mr. Sunak 51 percent to Mr. Starmer’s 49 percent. He bested the opposition leader on the perhaps unsurprising question of being “prime ministerial,” 43 percent to 40 percent. That’s where the good news ends for the Tories.
On most other polling questions, Sir Keir takes a commanding lead. On being trustworthy, Mr. Starmer received 49 percent to Mr. Sunak’s 39 percent. On likeability, Mr. Starmer was ahead with 50 percent to Mr. Sunak’s 34 percent. On being “in touch,” Mr. Starmer towered over Mr. Sunak, 66 percent to 17 percent. Ouch.
One question that no doubt received non-partisan unanimity was on the debate itself. Sixty-two percent found it “frustrating.”
Election debates, like elections themselves, call for a suspension of disbelief. Such encounters have become so scripted that, like political manifestos, they are best viewed with cynical detachment. One seeks not answers, but rare moments of clarity.
Such as when Mr. Starmer asked Mr. Sunak why, if all of the economic news is so good, then why call a summer election? Could it be that inflation numbers are set to rise? Was the Premier going to the polls before the bad news hits? A similar to-and-fro ensued with respect to the government’s Rwanda immigration policy.
Another awkward moment even made the audience laugh with its surreal quality. Mr. Sunak claimed that patient numbers on NHS waiting lists were decreasing. Sir Keir countered that the numbers had in fact risen.
Why yes, the Prime Minister responded. Numbers on waiting lists had risen (due to hospital quarantines and appointment restrictions during Covid) but were now dropping again.
Another instructive moment — doubtless archived for future embarrassment — was when, apart from Labour’s plan to raise VAT on private schools (plus other penalties on individual and corporate high earners), both leaders committed not to raise income or national insurance taxes.
What was missing from the debate was the dynamic promise of Brexit, to which Boris Johnson can credit his 80-seat majority at the December 2019 election.
“Minimal government and maximal liberty” is a clear program for low taxes, higher economic growth, controlled inflation, and business opportunities. Even the question of cultural controversies are lessened, when the state doesn’t curry favor with special interests.
On all these issues, sadly, the Johnson administration failed. His betrayal of Brexit led ultimately to his resignation from office.
Of his two successors, Liz Truss and Mr. Sunak, only the former made an effort to implement a low tax-high growth agenda. She was rewarded for her temerity by being turned on by the establishment.
Mr. Sunak, whose big-government policies as Chancellor of the Exchequer brought on many of the UK’s current economic problems, barely survived palace coups by disgruntled political opportunists. None expect but more of the same statist agenda under Sir Keir and Labour.
While Mr. Sunak promised tax cuts and argued that Labour plans to raise per-capita taxes by £2,000, neither leader considered rolling back the frontiers of the state. The Conservative Premier even boasted of further public spending increases under his watch.
Brexiteers watching this debate may come to the conclusion that politics were bad under the Conservatives, but they will be definitely worse under Labour.
Mr. Sunak clearly believes that Nigel Farage is his Achilles’ heel. “Either Keir Starmer or I will be your Prime Minister and a vote for anyone else makes it more likely that it will be him,” he said, ending the debate with an appeal to true blue Tory.
However, the conventional wisdom is that, their patience at an end, Brexit supporters will see the need to start fresh and endure the hardships that entails. Oddly enough, they perversely agree with Sir Keir’s closing statement: “More chaos under the Conservatives.”
