Is the end in sight? With the shock of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine long since replaced by Europe’s exhaustion with war, reports of secret talks between former American national security officials and Kremlin insiders hint at an impending hairpin turn in the conflict. 

Separately, less than a week before a much-anticipated NATO summit at Vilnius, there is growing tension on the Continent over the prospect of Ukraine joining the military bloc. That too is an indication that a different dynamic is afoot, and one that spells the expiration if not of the war itself, then of certain expectations as to what the end of the ordeal might look like.

Whether the White House sanctioned them is not clear, but according to multiple reports back-channel talks occurred at New York in April between some notable Americans and Russia’s long-serving foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. NBC first reported that Americans present included a seasoned former diplomat, Richard Haass, who was an advisor to Secretary Powell in the administration of President George W. Bush, and a Russia expert, Thomas Graham.

Some of the thorny issues discussed, according to the NBC report, were “the fate of Russian-held territory that Ukraine may never be able to liberate, and the search for an elusive diplomatic off-ramp that could be tolerable to both sides.”

Although no Ukrainians were present at the talks, news of the Track 2 discussions — so termed because they entail experienced  but private citizens who are not currently in government — dovetail with previous reports that certain Ukrainian officials informed the director of the CIA, William Burns, that they seek to push Moscow into negotiations by the end of the year. Mr. Burns met with President Zelensky and Ukrainian officials on a recent secret visit to Kyiv.

Those present on the American side in New York also included some former Pentagon officials, including a former U.S. assistant defense secretary “with deep experience in NATO issues,” Mary Beth Long.

With relations between Russia and Ukraine at rock bottom for obvious reasons, it is not all that surprising that informal discussions about various scenarios to wind down hostilities would occur, nor can it be ruled out that more such talks will take place in the near future — with or without Ukraine at the Track 2 table. 

In the meantime, Ukraine’s membership in NATO is as hot-button an issue as ever, especially ahead of the upcoming Vilnius parley. NATO’s secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, has made clear that at the summit, which starts on July 11 in the Lithuanian capital, NATO will not issue an invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance. “At the Vilnius summit and the preparations for the summit, we are not discussing the issue of a formal invitation,” Mr. Stoltenberg has stated. 

“What we are discussing is how to move Ukraine closer to NATO and there are ongoing consultations and I am not in a position to preempt the outcome of those consultations.”

The chief diplomatic advisor to President Zelensky, Ihor Zhovkva, said last month that if leaders at the summit do not show the “courage” to start Ukraine’s accession process that Mr. Zelensky will not attend. Ukraine submitted its application for fast-track NATO membership last September after Russia illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions.

Yet that kind of posturing will likely not sway certain European powers-that-be — case in point, Germany. This week the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, said at a press conference in Romania that one of the criteria for NATO membership is that “there are no open border conflicts,” adding that “nobody can become a member of a defensive alliance during a war.”

By that logic, the sooner the war ends, the sooner the prospect of Ukrainian membership in NATO. So in that respect the informal discussions to test the diplomatic waters make perfect sense. 

They too point to a new phase of the war, particularly if reports that Washington and its allies want to see Russia and Ukraine engage in some kind of constructive dialogue in the fall can be considered credible. 

All this  happening in the background as the Ukrainian counteroffensive, though slower than many had anticipated,  continues apace. 

There is also a growing realization that despite the massive in-flow of mainly American and British armaments — in the latest development, Washington will be sending Kyiv cluster munitions — it will,  given the inevitable military muscle of the invader, be a long and messy fight. 

That unpleasant reality is likely what  led one of the more prominent German politicians, Michael Roth, to suggest in a German interview that those parts of Ukraine that are now “under reliable control” of the democratic Kyiv government “should be included in NATO territory as soon as possible.”

The obligation to provide assistance under Article 5, the provision for collective defense, would apply to those areas, but not others. 

If that sounds like the kind of  messy recipe that might be cooked up at a bierstube during Oktoberfest, consider the source: Mr. Roth chairs the Bundestag’s powerful foreign affairs committee. And his party? Why, it’s the SDP, or Social Democrats, the party of Herr Scholz.