With just six days to go until the 2024 election, Republicans are sounding the alarm that men are not turning out at the requisite numbers to ensure a victory for President Trump, based on early and mail vote data that has so far been released. One expert writes that if Vice President Harris meets her current polling advantage among women on election day, and women turnout at their 2020 levels, then the vice president would win comfortably. 

The panic began on Wednesday and continued into Thursday, as Trump allies and even the former president himself sounded alarm bells about the vote in Pennsylvania. 

“Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” the founder of Turning Point USA and Trump surrogate, Charlie Kirk, wrote on X. “If you want a vision of the future if you don’t vote, imagine Kamala’s voice cackling, forever. Men need to GO VOTE NOW.”

In a sign of how nervous he is, Mr. Kirk went so far as to pin that post to the top of his profile on the platform. 

“Male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster. Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA and it’s over,” wrote conservative activist Mike Cernovich, another influential Trumpworld figure. 

Trump himself weighed in on Truth Social on Thursday. “We caught them CHEATING BIG in Pennsylvania. Must announce and PROSECUTE, NOW! This is a CRIMINAL VIOLATION OF THE LAW,” the former president wrote, citing no evidence. “STOP VOTER FRAUD! … WE ARE ON THEM ALL THIS TIME!”

It’s understandable why Republicans are starting to panic given the early and mail in voting numbers that have come in so far. According to one analysis by Politico, women are leading men by 13 points in Pennsylvania early and mail voting. 

Women have broken sharply for the Democrats in recent election cycles, and are likely to deliver Ms. Harris a White House victory if the trend continues. According to voting data compiled by TargetEarly, women have outperformed men dramatically in terms of turnout in recent national elections. In 2020, women made up 53 percent of the electorate compared to men, who made up 44 percent. In 2022 — when Republicans had a historically bad night for an opposition party in the midterms — women made up 52 percent of the voters while men made up 45 percent. 

As of Thursday, women are on track to outperform again. According to turnout data for the 2024 election, women make up 53.2 percent of this year’s voters so far, compared to men who make up just 44.5 percent. 

In must-win Pennsylvania this year, it is understandable why conservatives are beginning to panic based on the data. Four years ago, women made up 53 percent of the vote and men made up 47 percent in the Keystone State, which helped deliver the commonwealth for President Biden. 

According to the most recent Marist poll of Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris leads Trump by 12 points among women, and is losing men to Trump by just ten points. Her ability to dominate the higher turnout population was limiting her losses on the lower turnout demographic, one could argue Ms. Harris is already a strong favorite to carry the state. 

It isn’t just Pennsylvania that appears to be slipping away from Trump thanks to women voters. In Michigan, women make up 55 percent of the early and mail votes cast so far, compared to men who make up only 44 percent. Another Marist poll of Michigan voters finds that Ms. Harris leads Trump among women by 15 points. Georgia, similarly, has seen a disproportionately female electorate since early voting began. According to the secretary of state’s office, women make up 56 percent of the early and mail votes cast so far, while men make up only 44 percent. 

The Brookings Institution’s Elaine Kamarck wrote before early voting began that as long as Ms. Harris kept her 12-point national lead with women through the election, and women turned out at the same levels they did in 2020, the vice president would be a strong favorite come election day. 

“This exercise shows that if the composition of the electorate between men and women remains the same as it was in 2020, Harris could win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada — all states Biden won in 2020. She could also win North Carolina (which Biden lost in 2020) but by a very narrow margin,” Ms. Kamarck wrote. 

Trump’s historic unpopularity among women means he may end up with the lowest percentage of the female vote since Senator Dole in 1996, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. Abortion has a great deal to do with that gap, though Trump has made his own gaffes about women voters that have also played a role in the deficit. Just on Wednesday, Trump promised to protect women from criminals who entered the country seeking asylum, “whether the women like it or not.”