With the Republican gubernatorial primary debate slated for Monday night, the candidates and their strategists are facing the crucial task of figuring out a formula for success.

With New York State generally favoring Democrats in recent years, winning the Republican primary and defeating the Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, in the general election will require different strategies.

“The issue for New York Republicans is that the median voter in the state of New York is 5 to 10 points more liberal than the median voter nationally,” a professor of political science at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, Brian Arbour, told the Sun.

“The conflict is that in a Republican primary the voters are obviously Republican; they are much more conservative than the average New Yorker,” he added.

The Sun asked each of the candidates’ campaigns what messages they are looking to get across in the debate.

Representative Lee Zeldin is generally believed to be the current GOP front-runner. 

“New Yorkers from every walk of life in every corner of our state are reaching their breaking point, and they know it’s going to take a new generation of leadership,” a spokeswoman for the veteran congressman who represents the first congressional district on Long Island, Katie Vincentz, said. “Congressman Zeldin is focused on reversing Albany’s attacks on safety, wallets, freedoms, and education.”

Andrew Giuliani, a former White House staffer and son of the former New York City mayor, has fared well against Mr. Zeldin in some recent polling.

“My goal is to rebuild the Empire State so that people no longer want to move to flee New York, but rather raise their family and grow their business in the place we all know can be that shining  state on the hill, New York,” Mr. Giuliani said. 

“Safety, anti-mandate, voter ID, and educational choice are my major priorities that will immediately improve New Yorkers’ quality of life,” he added.

A third candidate is Rob Astorino, who was the Westchester County executive between 2010 and 2017 and has also served in the county legislature. He said he hopes GOP primary debate viewers will understand that “experience, electability and record is what is needed to win the race in November.” Mr. Astorino added: “I’m the only executive in the race. I’m the only one who has faced the fires and walked through them and come out. I’m the only one who can actually get elected.”

Also in the race is Harry Wilson, a businessman from Johnstown who held positions in the Treasury Department and on President Obama’s Auto Industry Task Force.

“New York has the most broken state government in the country — the highest taxes, the highest cost of living, skyrocketing crime and a culture of corruption that has led to too many Albany elected officials resigning in disgrace,” a spokesman said.

Although the candidates face different challenges on the campaign trail, Mr. Zeldin during the debate has a chance to “make both a MAGA voter and a suburban voter who voted for Biden want to vote for him,” Mr. Arbour said.

Having never held elected office, Mr. Giuliani, who shares many of the same positions as Mr. Zeldin, will have a slightly different challenge in proving his competence to voters. A successful debate performance for Mr. Giuliani will be one in which “he looks like someone with a resume — he looks like Rudy Giuliani, not Andrew,” Mr. Arbour said.

Like many, Mr. Arbour believes 2022 is a year of unusually good prospects for Republicans in New York, but it will be an uphill battle regardless, especially considering the renewed relevance of two important issues: abortion and gun control.

The prospects for the GOP were looking better before the recent leak of the Supreme Court draft opinion that could signal Roe v. Wade will be overturned and a spate of mass shootings, including one in Buffalo. In April, Ms. Hochul’s approval rating on crime was at 24 percent, and 63 percent of voters disapproved of her economic policies.

A shift took place in early May after  Politico published a draft of a Supreme Court opinion suggesting that Roe v. Wade would be overturned. If that happens, it would put the power of deciding whether abortion is legal in the hands of state legislators and governors. Messrs. Zeldin and Giuliani are strongly anti-abortion, while New York has long been seen as an abortion-rights state. According to a Pew Research study, 64 percent of New Yorkers think abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

A second shift followed the mass shootings in Uvalde, Tulsa, and Buffalo, among others. Polling shows more Americans now favor new gun control legislation, while Messrs. Zeldin and Giuliani have been critical of New York’s gun regulation efforts.

Threading the needle on these issues will be imperative if the GOP  candidates wish to provide a credible challenge to the Democrat in the general election.

“The task of skilled politicians is to appeal to both the base electorate in the primary and a general election electorate that is not as ideological and more interested in pocketbook issues,” Mr. Arbour said.

The GOP primary debate will air on CBS2 at 7 p.m. on Monday.