A survey from the Republican House campaign arm, the Congressional Leadership Fund, suggests that the New York suburbs — an area on the front lines of the battle for control of the House — are competitive heading into 2024.

The survey, provided to the New York Post by the committee, the Democratic incumbent, Congressman Pat Ryan, is statistically tied in a theoretical matchup with a generic Republican challenger at 43 percent support for each.

The survey of the 18th Congressional District also found that 13 percent were undecided. Released earlier this week, it was conducted in early August by a GOP pollster, Cygnal, and surveyed 400 voters in the district.

The survey is a relatively rare piece of early district-level data and suggests that the fight over the suburban New York districts could be close.

In 2022, House districts in New York helped deliver Republicans their narrow House majority. Alongside Florida, this was one part of the country where Republicans managed to create an otherwise imaginary “red wave.”

The poll finding in Mr. Ryan’s district would appear to bolster the prospects for a Republican challenger, a former police officer and candidate for lieutenant governor, Alison Esposito.

Since entering the race, Ms. Esposito has targeted the border and immigration as an issue, visiting the border in Arizona earlier in November. “I thought I understood the migrant crisis,” Ms. Esposito said during remarks at the border. “This is an unsecured southern border. Day one, the Biden administration stopped the production of the wall.”

Since spring 2022, nearly 140,000 migrants have arrived at New York City, with some of them being housed at the Hudson Valley, something on which Ms. Esposito is hoping to capitalize.

Mr. Ryan has also moved to position himself on the issue of migration, calling on the president to declare a state of emergency. “It’s one area where I have been very direct in saying the president needs to do more,” Mr. Ryan told Spectrum News NY1.

Mr. Ryan pulled out two victories in congressional elections last year, first in a special election and second in the general election. Both were decided by only a few thousand votes.

Working in Mr. Ryan’s favor is the likelihood that the presidential election will bring more Democrats to the polls in the Empire State. Although the 18th District covered a different land area in 2020 due to redistricting, if Mr. Ryan’s district had existed as it is today in 2020, President Biden would have carried it by 8 points.

The Cook Political Report currently rates New York’s 18th district as lean Democratic, though Republicans will no doubt be pulling out all the stops to try to flip the seat.

_______

Correction: A recent survey finds that Congressman Pat Ryan is statistically tied in a theoretical matchup with a generic Republican challenger. An earlier version misstated the survey findings.