The years-long Qatari alliance with Hamas in Gaza, which survived even the terrorist group’s October 7, 2023, atrocities, could end just as President-elect Trump prepares for his second stint at the White House.

Israel’s public broadcaster, Kan, is reporting Friday that Qatar has told Hamas officials who have long resided at posh Doha homes that their presence in the country is not wanted. “You are no longer welcome here,” emirate officials told Hamas bigwigs, according to an X posting by Kan’s diplomatic correspondent, Gili Cohen. 

“Between Trump’s expected return to maximum pressure and reports that Qatar may be kicking Hamas out of the country, I think it’s safe to say: The Israelis are looking at what can be, unburdened by what has been,” a vice president at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Jontahan Schanzer, quipped on X. 

Mr. Schanzer riffed on a line often used by Vice President Harris, but the implication, also expressed by some Israelis, was clear: Fearing landing in Trump’s crosshairs, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Arab countries are repositioning themselves.

The Biden administration declined to exert serious pressure on Doha; such measures could have included threatening to relocate America’s largest Mideast air base out of Qatar’s al-Udeid. Instead, Washington had seemingly endless praise for the Hamas-backing emirate. Perhaps Doha now senses that policy shifts are on the horizon.   

On the Kan television broadcast, Ms. Cohen said that two of her sources ascribed the Qatari decision to “American pressure,” while a third denied it. She added that if Qatar indeed does expel the Hamas leaders, they will relocate to Turkey, where some of them already have established residences. 

Both Turkey and Qatar have long championed Hamas. America, though, considers the Gulf emirate a useful liaison to the Gaza-based group. Most negotiation rounds over hostage release were conducted at Doha, while Biden administration officials praise the emirate’s efforts to mediate a diplomatic agreement.

The last time that effort was successful, though, was November 2023, when 105 of the 251 hostages who were taken at gunpoint to Gaza were released. In return, hundreds of Hamas detainees in Israeli prisons were released, and a three-week cessation of fighting was agreed upon. 

Since then, talks have been stuck. “Right now the chances for a deal are very slim,” the Mossad chief, David Barnea, who conducts the negotiations on Israel’s behalf, said on Monday after the most recent round at Doha failed. 

On Friday, Ms. Cohen said that after Mr. Barnea returned home, an unidentified “senior Israeli official” told hostage family members that “if Hamas is expelled from Qatar, it will accelerate the negotiations.” 

Led by the CIA director, William Burns, the year-long negotiations — involving Mr. Barnea, his Egyptian counterpart, and Doha officials — were accompanied by endless leaks. Most hinted that a deal was nearing for incremental release of a number of hostages in return for releasing Hamas convicts and an end to military activities in Gaza. 

Officially, Washington mostly blamed Hamas for failing to accept “generous” Israeli offers. Yet in leaks to reporters, Mr. Biden’s aides also blamed Prime Minister Netanyahu’s hawkish bargaining for ultimately preventing an agreement. 

Qatar, which in effect served as a Hamas mouthpiece, all along was praised globally for its role as mediator. At the same time, some Israelis started to accuse the emirate of playing a double game that blocked the release of the hostages. 

All proposed deals, for one, contradicted America’s official position, which was also enshrined in a United Nations Security Council resolution: A demand for an “unconditional release of all the hostages.”  

Yet as Hamas declined even to entertain that demand, Qatar, with America’s assistance, instead proposed condition-filled negotiations over release of some hostages. Doha diplomacy rewarded the unlawful kidnapping of Israeli citizens, and encouraged Hamas to increase its demands for endless Israeli concessions. Qatar has long played that game. 

“Do you think we could transfer all this cash without a green light from Israel?” a senior Qatari official said to the Sun during a 2018 Doha visit. At the time, a Qatari envoy was traveling periodically to Gaza, carrying large suitcases filled with $100 bills.

Mr. Netnanyahu’s government believed that it could buy calm in the south in exchange for Qatari money going to Hamas. That perception largely shifted after October 7. Yet Mr. Biden continued to believe that Qatar is a force for good in Mideast wars. Perhaps now Doha is sensing that the era of endless American good will is coming to an end.