If your protégé of 30 years tries to knock you off the throne, whom can you trust?

Your bodyguard of 30 years – on a short leash.

As Russian Wagner military forces are dismantled after last week’s aborted mutiny, the tanks and artillery are not going to the Russian Army. They are going to a little-known security force sometimes called “Putin’s private army” or “Putin’s Praetorian Guard.”

Set up in 2016 to suppress pro-democracy demonstrators, Russia’s National Guard has expanded its remit – and its ranks  to 350,000 soldiers. Its director is a former bodyguard to the president, Viktor Zolotov. Cutting out Russia’s defense minister as intermediary, Mr. Zolotov answers directly to Mr. Putin, a St. Petersburg friend of 30 years.

During last Saturday’s mutiny, Mr. Zolotov created barricades and appeared in public to say his men of the “Rosgvardiya” would “stand to the death” to defend Moscow from Wagner. He said he was in touch with the president throughout the uprising.

In contrast, Russian Army units were AWOL when the Wagner convoy drove unimpeded to within 150 miles of the Kremlin. At the time of its creation, many analysts predicted that the National Guard could go beyond beating up protesters and grow into a role of blocking any coup attempt by the Russian Army.

“Putin’s new National Guard – what does it say when you need your own personal army?” headlined an “In Moscow’s Shadows” blog by a NYU professor, Mark Galeotti. The new Guard units “forces have little real role fighting crime or terrorism; they are public security forces, riot and insurrection control, and deterrence assets.”

An analyst at the time with the Moscow Carnegie Center, Konstantin Gaaze, predicted to the Moscow Times: “The newly established National Guard is the President’s army in the literal sense of the word. An army, which can be used without intermediaries in the form of a defense minister, and without the constitutional rules on the use of the Armed Forces.”

Similarly, a Moscow-based military analyst, Pavel Felgenhaurer, told Vice News that the National Guard is “a kind of Praetorian Guard to deal with the internal enemy.” He added: “It reminds me of the decline and fall of the Roman Empire. We see an aging emperor appointing his bodyguard chief of everything.”

Seven years later, the predictions are coming true.

The bullet-headed Russian General known as ‘General Armageddon’ for carpet-bombing Syria, Sergei Surovikin, is reportedly under detention for interrogation. He was last seen one week ago in a video asking Russian troops not to join the Wagner revolt. He was unshaven. His army jacket was stripped of shoulder cards indicating his rank. General Surovikin’s deputy, Andrey Yudin, also has been fired in what looks like a wider Army purge.

Analysts speculate that Mr. Putin knew of the mutiny attempt in advance, but decided to let the Wagner tanks roll in order to smoke out officers and generals who were fence sitters or traitors. Since the mutiny, Russia’s most senior generals have dropped out of public view, including the chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov.

Pro-Kremlin political consultant Sergei Markov predicted Thursday on Telegram that the purge would take in “absolutely all generals and officers who were in touch with Prigozhin and Wagner.” He added: “The main task of the investigation isn’t to find out who needs to be punished, but which systemic mistakes were made by different elements of the government. So that the uprising never happens again.”

Reflecting continued political insecurity, Russia’s ruble slumped Friday to its lowest level since the first month of the war — 88 to the dollar. In a sign of some popular support for the mutineers, the price of a Wagner patch on the Russian e-commerce site Wildberries has doubled since the mutiny, to about $6 apiece

After getting burned last week by Mr. Prigozhin, why should Mr. Putin put his trust in Mr. Zolotov, another St. Petersburg acquaintance from the 1990s?

The difference is that while Mr. Putin created Mr. Prigozhin, the mercenary leader, Mr. Putin worked closely, inside the system, with Mr. Zolotov, now 69. A former KGB border guard, Mr. Zolotov first met Mr. Putin when he served as bodyguard to St. Petersburg’s mayor at the time, Anatoly Sobchak.

Mr. Zolotov became Mr. Putin’s judo and boxing sparring partner, then personal bodyguard. As head of presidential security, he commanded security officers known as “Men in Black” because they dress in black suits and wore black wraparound sunglasses.

According to “Three Bodyguards and their Riches,” a report by the Western-based Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Mr. Putin gave Mr. Zolotov up to $23 million in state properties that had been bequeathed by the state to workers and pensioners after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In the first days of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Rosgvardiya units suffered heavy casualties. Expecting an easy victory, many units carried riot control equipment to control the unruly Ukrainians. Now, Mr. Putin is expected to leave the fighting to the Army. As predicted a decade ago, the Rosgvardiya is expected to serve as Mr. Putin’s Praetorian guard, protecting the Kremlin from another military mutiny.