Progressives Push Powell To Put the Brakes on Fed Rate Hikes

One analyst says the stock, credit, and housing markets already reflect the inevitable recession to come as a result of the Fed’s rapid-fire rate hikes.

AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta
The Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, at the Capitol. AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta

Progressives lawmakers are leaning on the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, to back off on the central bank’s aggressive efforts to slow the nation’s inflation-riddled economy by ratcheting up interest rates, saying that doing so comes at the expense of average Americans’ jobs and livelihoods.

The Democratic lawmakers are eyeballing Mr. Powell closely ahead of remarks Wednesday that could signal the Fed’s next move. Senator Warren, the Massachusetts firebrand who has called Mr. Powell “a dangerous man,” penned a letter with 10 of her legislative colleagues asking the Fed chairman to quantify how many jobs are disposable in the Fed’s quest to bring inflation in check.

“You continue to double down on your commitment to ‘act aggressively’ with interest rate hikes and ‘keep at it until it’s done,’ even if ‘(n)o one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be,’” the lawmakers wrote, throwing Mr. Powell’s remarks back at him.

“These statements reflect an apparent disregard for the livelihoods of millions of working Americans, and we are deeply concerned that your interest rate hikes risk slowing the economy to a crawl while failing to slow rising prices that continue to harm families,” they wrote.

The letter challenges Mr. Powell to report the expected impact of job losses and wage growth for average workers by wage quartile, race, sex, educational attainment, and sector. 

Last month, the Ohio Democrat who is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Sherrod Brown, also wrote Mr. Powell, reminding him of the Fed’s “responsibility to promote maximum employment.”

“While, for now, the labor market remains relatively stable, we are starting to see job openings decrease and unemployment claims rise. We must stay focused on addressing the root causes of inflation without putting workers’ livelihoods at risk,” Mr. Brown wrote.

Mr. Powell is delivering remarks this week at the Brookings Institution at Washington, D.C., ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting. Mr. Powell’s speech could signal whether he’s heeding the call of his critics.

Mr. Powell has telegraphed that the next interest rate increase may not be another three-quarters of a point hike like those in June, July, September, and November. He stated after the last rate hike that the Fed will continue to raise rates until inflation calms to 2 percent per year. At the time, he said the impact of high inflation on families is a more imminent concern than job losses.

“My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation,” he said, adding, “the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers.”

Despite the calls to slow his roll, some analysts say the Fed’s actions have yet to show signs of slowing the economy. Unemployment stands at 3.7 percent, the lowest it has been in decades, though the labor force participation is lower than pre-pandemic levels. 

“While jobless claims have started to rise, the number of job openings compared to the number of people unemployed is still very high, at nearly a 2-to-1 ratio. It is still significantly higher than where the value stood before the pandemic at roughly 1.25,” Michael J. Kramer of Mott Capital Management wrote.

In fact, financial conditions have eased somewhat, with mortgage rates coming down and purchases of used cars increasing for the first time since June. Mr. Powell still “needs financial conditions to tighten, and he needs them to stay that way to avoid further easing and the undoing of everything the Fed has accomplished this year,” Mr. Kramer wrote.

Conversely, economist Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, says the stock, credit, and housing markets already reflect the inevitable recession to come as a result of the Fed’s rapid-fire rate hikes.

“What [Mr. Powell] has forgotten is that monetary policy doesn’t work instantaneously. It experiences what we call ‘long lags,’” which are variable and imprecise but can range from 12 to 18 months, Mr. Lachman said. 

Mr. Powell should have tapped the brakes in 2021 when the economy was churning along nicely after being pulled out of the global Covid-driven recession of 2020. 

Now, “it’s too late. … the die is cast,” he said.

“He is going to have a really rough time going in 2023,” Mr. Lachman said of Mr. Powell. “I don’t have much confidence.”


The New York Sun

© 2024 The New York Sun Company, LLC. All rights reserved.

Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. The material on this site is protected by copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used.

The New York Sun

Sign in or  Create a free account

or
By continuing you agree to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use