New Poll Suggests Florida Senate Race, Once Thought Solidly Red, Could Be Competitive in November

A new survey shows Senator Scott leading by only two points.

AP/Rebecca Blackwell
Senator Scott of Florida said he would challenge Senator McConnell in a GOP leadership contest. AP/Rebecca Blackwell

Senator Scott of Florida might be in for a tighter re-election race than previously thought, according to a new survey that shows the Democratic challenger nearly tied with the incumbent senator.

A new survey from Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research found that among likely voters, Mr. Scott enjoys 45 percent support while his challenger, Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, had 43 percent support. Among registered voters, Mr. Scottā€™s lead was slightly larger, 44 percent to 40 percent.

A previous survey from the same pollster conducted in April found Mr. Scott leading Ms. Mucarsel-Powell by 16 points among registered voters and by 17 points among likely voters.

Ms. Mucarsel-Powell is a former member of Congress from South Florida. Originally from Ecuador, she lost her congressional seat in Floridaā€™s 26th in the 2020 election.

An assistant professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University, Luzmarina Garcia, said that ā€œMucarsel-Powell was largely unknown in earlier surveys.ā€

ā€œHowever, as voters have been introduced to her, she has been gaining in the race,ā€ Ms. Garcia said. ā€œIf this trend holds, it could be close in November.ā€

While most handicappers still anticipate Florida leaning towards Republicans in the 2024 election, Ms. Mucarsel-Powell has focused her campaign on exploiting Mr. Scottā€™s unpopularity and the GOPā€™s stance on abortion.

ā€œHeā€™d strip away womenā€™s rights with a national abortion ban,ā€ Ms. Mucarsel-Powell said in her campaign announcement. ā€œHe cuts taxes for himself, but heā€™d raise them on you.ā€

The once perennial swing state has trended towards Republicans in recent elections. In 2022, Governor DeSantis won re-election by a large margin, benefiting many Republicans in his state electorally in a year when Republicans posted a historically weak midterm performance.

If Democrats could make the Florida Senate race competitive, it could increase their chances of retaining the Senate in 2024, a year where multiple vulnerable Democratic incumbents are up for re-election.


The New York Sun

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