The excitement of the Mar-a-Lago raid and the Cheney Clan’s Last Stand in Wyoming notwithstanding, late August is the political equivalent of the doldrums. With primaries largely finished, but the big ad campaigns for the general election still to come, it is notoriously difficult to predict which direction the American voters will direct the wind.  The political cognoscenti will tell you that the Senate now leans towards the Democrats, but truthfully, no one knows yet.

In the House, however, Republicans have structural advantages that Democrats likely won’t overcome.  President Biden is an unpopular president, even by 21st-century standards, and the GOP needs to win only a handful of 35 or so tossup races to take the House majority. To the extent anything can be predicted before Labor Day, it is that Representative Kevin McCarthy (or one of his Republican colleagues) will be Speaker on January 3, 2023.

For foreign policy wonks, this begs the question, what can the new House majority do to promote American national security?

The United States faces as difficult a global environment as any we have seen since the early 1980s.  The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens the stability of Europe, still our most important economic and security partner.  China’s belligerence against Taiwan and pressure on other nations in the Indo-Pacific are increasing every day.  Iran is closer to having a nuclear weapon than at any time in its history.

On this world stage, the Biden administration is not performing well.  The mangled withdrawal from Afghanistan harmed American interests and our standing in the world in deep and profound ways.  Domestic political pressure inside the president’s own party on energy, human rights and arms sales has led to impractical policies in the Middle East. The Biden response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been barely adequate. Why does Ukraine have to beg us for missiles, jet fighters and other weapons systems?

On competition with China, the Biden administration has been a mixed bag, with some sensible steps, but also some stumbles. China’s aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy has been too often met with fumbled explanations by very senior American diplomats instead of harsh criticism.  The Biden administration has not seized opportunities to leverage Xi Jinping’s vulnerability as he seeks to break the Chinese political system and declare himself effectively chairman-for-life at the next communist party congress this fall.

What can Republicans do when they take over the House next year? Of all the political components of American government, the House has the least influence over foreign policy.  It has no role in presidential appointments and treaties.  Its members are generally not seen as future presidents.  Nevertheless, the House matters and Republicans will have a tremendous opportunity to do good for America’s standing in the world.

One need look no further than the performance of Speaker Pelosi.  The 82-year-old Democrat, seemingly of touch with her increasingly progressive party and likely out of a job in a few months, has been the critical actor in toughening Mr. Biden’s approach to global affairs.  Just a few days after Russia invaded Ukraine, she announced ahead of the White House that America would not be buying any Russian oil or gas.  The Biden administration followed her lead.  When the Biden administration asked for billions in military aid for Ukraine, she increased it. 

Mrs. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in July drew a harsh response from China, but her trip was the right thing to do.  Standing up for democracy and human rights when dictators make absurd threats is something Americans are right to support. Her steadfastness has again forced the Biden administration to double down on its support for our friends and allies.  Mrs. Pelosi has shown that the leader of the House can be the most important policymaker in Washington when it comes to national security.  Kevin McCarthy, take note.

There is an overwrought concern in foreign policy circles that House Republicans will turn to isolationism and reject American engagement with the world. This will not happen. Just three months ago, over 70 percent of House Republicans voted for a massive aid package for Ukraine, and this is a group of legislators that is generally loath to give Mr. Biden and his party any policy wins.

The path is clear for House Republicans next year. They can provide the backbone for a tough approach to our adversaries – Russia, China and Iran – that Mr. Biden doesn’t often display.  That means more weapons to Ukraine, delivered faster; stronger support for the Republic of China on Taiwan and other nations standing up to China’s belligerence; and a return to President Trump’s policy of massive sanctions on the terrorist regime in Tehran. Republicans can achieve these goals (without spending massive amounts of taxpayer dollars) by working with sensible Democrats and those senior appointees in the administration who have a balanced view of the world.

On January 3, 2023, Republicans will very likely take control of the House of Representatives. Within just a few short months of that date, they can work to put the United States in a better position across the globe and set the table for the next president to do even more.