With a rematch between President Biden and President Trump likely on the horizon in 2024, handicappers and analysts are already beginning to plot the most likely path to victory for each candidate.

According to analysts at Washington University in Saint Louis’s Decision Desk HQ, a 2024 rematch between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump would likely hinge on just six swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.

According to recent polling from Public Opinion Strategies, Mr. Biden enjoys a modest lead in each of these states with a one-point lead in Nevada and Georgia, a two-point lead in Arizona, a three-point lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a four-point lead in Pennsylvania.

While polls are helpful for gauging the horse race, the election is still far away and they are not necessarily predictive of a final outcome. It is worth noting, however, that Mr. Biden carried all six of these swing states in 2022 with Michigan seeing his widest margin, 2.8 points, and Georgia seeing the narrowest margin, 0.2 points.

According to an analysis of Federal Election Commission data by Decision Desk HQ, these states all swung towards Democrats between 2016 and 2020 except for Nevada, which remained essentially the same.

If Mr. Biden were to carry all of these states again, alongside states he won with a margin of more than five points in 2020, Mr. Biden would win with 303 electoral votes to Mr. Trump’s 235.

“Let’s take a look at the race to 270 mathematically,” Decision Desk HQ analyst Ryan Gest said. “Harkening all the way back to the point of least number of states he has to win, Biden can lose Nevada, Wisconsin and any one of Arizona, Georgia, or Michigan and still hold on to 270 electoral votes.”

In this scenario, the key for Mr. Biden’s campaign will be the Keystone State. Likewise, a victory in Pennsylvania would make Mr. Trump’s odds of victory in the electoral college much better as well.

If Mr. Trump is able to carry Pennsylvania, he would only need to either flip Georgia or carry two of the other four swing states to win re-election. 

If Mr. Trump is not able to carry Pennsylvania, his path to victory would become much narrower. He would need to carry Georgia as well as three other swing states or carry Georgia and Michigan, and either Wisconsin, Nevada, or Arizona to win.

Either way, the safest path to victory for both candidates will run through Pennsylvania, a state which not only voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but saw Democratic victories in 2022 with the election of Governor Shapiro and Senator Fetterman.

Mr. Biden, who was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania, has long treated Pennsylvania, which neighbors Delaware where he lives, as a sort of second home state.

Beyond Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia will be the swing states with the most electoral votes on the table. Both of these states have been trending Democratic in recent years as well, although Georgia is probably a better target for Republicans than Michigan.

In Michigan, Democrats won their first trifecta in state government in decades. In Georgia, Democrats saw the largest improvement in performance of any swing state between 2016 and 2020.

While these trends are not necessarily predictive of which candidate or party will win the state in 2024, they do suggest that Democrats and Mr. Biden will be heading into the election season with historical trends on their side in the most competitive states.