Maximizing the Bounce

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

It would be tough to imagine how this week could have gone better for President Bush and his top political strategist, Karl Rove. Okay, maybe a group of protesters wearing John Kerry T-shirts could have burned some American flags and assaulted some National Guardsmen, and the Bush twins could have not made their national debut by making fun of grandma. Beyond that, everything has been coming up roses.


Senator McCain, Mayor Giuliani, and Governor Schwarzenegger each hit home run speeches. First Lady Laura Bush was her usual pleasant self. They found a Democratic senator, Zell Miller, to provide conservative red meat. And Vice President Cheney…well, the vice president was okay, letting America know he is still the chief operations officer in the war on terrorism.


Each night’s top speech has focused extensively on touting Mr. Bush and his policies, unlike President Clinton’s “I’m making a bundle in retirement” and Barack Obama’s “Let me tell you my life story” approach in Boston. Off camera, Mr. Bush’s opponents in the national press are beside themselves.


Joe Klein lamented on press row on Wednesday night that “these guys have made the biggest foreign policy mistake since Woodrow Wilson in Paris, and they’re going to get away with it.”


Mr. Miller’s scorching evisceration of Senator Kerry’s record on defense issues left the Democrats sputtering. The chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Terry McAuliffe, took the whining approach Thursday morning, calling Mr. Miller’s address “the most hateful speech I’ve ever heard in my life. He scared people. It was like one of those Jason movies.” A party that just spent four days in Boston talking about its strength and toughness is now left to complain that Mr. Miller’s criticism was too mean.


At the end of the Democrats’ gathering in Boston, Mr. Kerry and his party were widely perceived to have had a successful convention. But whatever mild bounce Mr. Kerry got out of that week dissipated quickly. Part of this is due to natural slowing of momentum, part of this is due to the Swift boat veterans, and part of this is because Senator Edwards was abducted by aliens.


He was abducted, wasn’t he? How else to explain his absence from any of the campaign coverage? It’s been so long since he’s been in the spotlight, one expects him to appear on the side of a milk carton.


How can Mr. Bush make sure he keeps the momentum and doesn’t have a Kerry slump? First, the president should pledge to cease campaigning early next week. That may sound counter-intuitive, but the three-year anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks is approaching. Mr. Bush should spend the week being president – remembering, honoring, mourning, and discussing what the country is doing to make sure Al Qaeda can’t pull off a nightmarish sequel.


Mr. Kerry will be pressured to do the same – he almost certainly won’t – and while his fans in the press will excuse him, he will look like a cheap hack if he focuses on partisan politics during what ought to be a week with a very different meaning. Because he’s behind, Mr. Kerry will campaign as long has he can in the days before the anniversary, and be back on the trail as soon as possible afterwards. The public, already getting tired of a long, ugly campaign season, will not appreciate this tactic.


Second, Mr. Bush should joke about Mr. Kerry’s challenge for weekly debates, a clumsy gambit by the Democratic nominee that reeked of desperation.


“I thought he already agreed to three,” the president should say with a shrug. “I’ll meet him soon enough. Really, there’s no need to bore people by saying the same thing over and over again until Election Day.” Then Mr. Kerry will be forced to react, and he’ll probably react by expressing disappointment in the president “focusing on more nasty, partisan attacks instead of discussing the real issues” and issuing the challenge again. A countermove like that will just double the desperation vibes.


Third, the president ought to utilize surrogates as much as possible. The American electorate just got reintroduced to the Republicans, and liked what they saw. About 20 million people watched Mr. Schwarzenegger’s Tuesday night speech; about 15.5 million watched Mr. Kerry. Messrs. Schwarzenegger and McCain have day jobs, but they ought to join the president on the trail as much as possible, and Mr. Giuliani should be with Mr. Bush so often that people begin to forget that Dick Cheney is the president’s running mate.


These moves should make Mr. Bush’s bounce/bump/boogie from the convention last as long as possible, leading into the week of the first debate, scheduled for September 30 at the University of Miami. Mr. Kerry should be a good debater, and he did much better than expected against the much more charming Republican governor from Massachusetts, William Weld, again and again in 1996.


Of course, Mr. Kerry faces the same problem Vice President Gore did in the last election: How to come across as likeable against a good ol’ cowboy who can dismiss a complicated argument with a declaration of “fuzzy math.”


Conventions very rarely make or break a presidential candidacy; often they only help it or hurt it. At first, Mr. Kerry appeared to have been helped by his convention, but that assessment may need to be revised. Would the Swift boat veterans controversy have burned so brightly if the Democrats had not spent four days essentially chanting, “Vietnam, Vietnam, Vietnam”? Did the ham-handed salute and “I’m reporting for duty” line look foolish, knowing Mr. Kerry and his allies would be trying to emphasize the need to discuss the future instead of the past by late August?


The 2000 Republican convention in Philadelphia sent Mr. Bush off with good spirits and a solid burst of momentum. This year’s edition could be even better.



Mr. Geraghty writes the “Kerry Spot” feature on National Review Online.


The New York Sun

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